Prediction: By 2013, Html5 Will Rule Enterprise Mobility.

预测：Html5将统治2013的企业移动端。
原文地址： http://blogs.clicksoftware.com/mobilefever/bid/52121/Prediction-By-2013-Html5-Will-Rule-Enterprise-Mobility
作者: Gil Bouhnick
译者言:
这是我做的第一篇翻译，对于我这蹩脚的英语水平实在是一种极大的挑战。但我翻译的宗旨指在把一些我认为不错的文章拿出来和大家共同分享，还有就是提高一下自己这无可救药的英语水平。文章有很多地方翻译不通
和错误的地方。还望大家见谅哈。实在受不了我的译文，下边有原文直接看吧。

前言：
我第一次接触Html5大概是在两年前，那时我们打算开发智能移动端，第一个真正的跨设备的应用程序（当时并没有考虑平板电脑这一块）。
如果实现的话，那将会支持所有的主流移动平台，提供丰富的用户体验和漂亮用户界面。
从那时起，我们开始名为ClickMobile Professional的Html5项目开发。我着迷其中，并时刻关注着Html5怎么快速的变成在移动技术世界的一把关键钥匙。
Html5已经在移动应用掀起了一股革命的旋风，但我想它对企业版的影响更大。
这里是我关于未来几年的预测：Html5将统治2013的企业移动端。
正文：
2011：Html5已经大量渗透。
这一年，一些公司比如ClickSoftware已经在全世界范围内部署关于Html5的应用程序，更多的销售商已经在提供一些类似的服务，
100%的web使用或者基于web的代码已经在结合本地代码进行使用。
原因是明显的：
1、移动市场正在逐渐的弃用window和黑莓，这两个多年来用于开发运行本地应用程序的平台。android和ios已经是当前的趋势，
但他们都没有共同的开发技术而唯一的能够快速上市的提供共享技术的就是Html5。
2、越来越多的平台正在加入Html5的队伍中：黑莓 OS 6，Palm webOS（是的，我知道它现在是属于HP的，但我坚决叫它Palm。我将永远不会忘记你，PALM!）
，还有Window Phone 7---这是一个Html5即将取得胜利的巨大标志。
3、Html5协议发展如此之快以至于没人关心它是否是认证通过的，它有本地存储，离线功能，视频和媒体，它在每个操作系统更新的时候获取信息的原生功能，它是不可阻挡的。
离线存储是企业关于无缝的处理在线和离线的方案中的关键性钥匙。
4、要找到一个好的移动开发者是很难的，但有大量的web专家。HTML 5，CSS 3，JavaScript---这些都十分接近web标准。
这也意味着，任何一个web开发者都是一个潜在的移动开发者。
5、迄今为止，它确实是唯一的跨平台技术。它有相当容易的调整功能，在平板电脑和笔记本电脑，等等。

2012：战争已经开始：原生应用程序VS Html 5。
随着HTML5应用程序的普及，像苹果，谷歌，微软这些公司等，将不得不去改变他们的应用程序策略。应用商城和web 应用程序谁赢谁输？现在，苹果已经
对web应用程序做了一些限制（就像预期的那样，我不得不去添加），这无疑让苹果商城模式冒着一定的风险。谷歌现在正带头为HTML5做一些新的硬件功能。如此，
一些普遍的功能需求在2012年间将变得能用HTML5实现它。这些功能，像摄像机访问、联系人、文件浏览、条码扫描、印刷、BT等等，现在他们中的一些已经能用HTML5实现了。
这里有份有趣的调查，来自Smith的观点分析预估：
在2015年，移动web应用程序将会产生26亿美元的服务收入。这些平台，将允许web开发者用HTML5，JAVASCRIPT 和CSS,去创造移动应用程序。从2010年到2015年，将以114%的年增长率增长。
通过这份调查显示，来自不同的应用程序商店的收入流将发生改变，一些平台将允许在原生的盒子里创建本地的包（如：PhoneGap）去运行web应用程序。让这些应用程序能够在应用商城中出售。
其他的应用程序将简单的运行在微浏览器中。
“来自应用商城的收入减少将导致现在商业模式发生转变，平台商们将会转向添加一些服务来产生收入。”
回到2012年（隐马尔可夫模型将向你展示一个怪异的说明），现在越来越多的web应用程序被开发出来，企业版应用程序采取HTML5的速度远大于消费者应用程序。若干年后，历史学家将未我们
陈述这个现象的几个原因：
1、企业版应用程序不像游戏那样需要大量的图像功能---基本应用程序的一套标准就非常足够了。用CSS3/Jquery 给应用程序添加强大的视觉效果，而你可以结束那个用大量的UI，笔势和动画去实现应用程序外观
的时代了。它看起来就跟原来的应用程序一样好。
2、支持所有的平台和所有的屏幕尺寸大小（代价可能是失去一些可用性吸引力），这是对很多企业版的供应商很重要的一点。
2013年：战争已经结束，大部分企业移动端的解决策略选择了使用HTML5.
有或没有原生扩展，我预测在2013年战争将会结束。在企业软件行业里，没有一家企业会仅仅为iphone或window 7 phone 去做一个项目。HTML5将被认证为标准或极为贴近标准。
它将会支持所有来自市场的本地请求，有谁知道，它可能甚至可以在浏览器外面运行或者替换任何一个原生程序。它将会风行起来，就像web是今天的桌面程序中的明星的首选。
所以，你必须记住Gil Bouhnick在2013年对于企业移动端的预测。
如果我做出了错误的评估或者一个彻底错误的预测，请狠狠的打我屁股。但我认为在1到2年后检测它的正确性是一件非常有趣的事情。


原文：
Prediction: By 2013, Html5 Will Rule Enterprise Mobility.
Posted on Wed, Apr 20, 2011
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Author: Gil Bouhnick






I first came across Html5 almost 2 years ago when we wanted to build our first true device agnostic application for mobile smartphones (we didn't think about tablets back then…) that will support all popular mobile platforms and still provide rich user experience and great looking user interface.


Ever since we started our Html5 project called ClickMobile Professional I'm fascinated and monitoring how quickly Html5 becomes a key technology in the mobile world. Html5 is already creating a revolution in mobile apps, but I think that the impact for the enterprise would be even greater.


Here is my prediction for the next couple of years: By 2013, Html5 will rule Enterprise Mobility. Here's how it will work out:


2011: Html5 penetration is massive


While companies such as ClickSoftware are already deploying Html5 based applications all over the world, more vendors are releasing similar offering, 100% web or sometimes a combination of native code with web based code.


The reasons are obvious:


The market is slowly deserting Windows Mobile and BlackBerry – both used to run native applications that were developed for years. Android & iOS are the current trend, but they share no mutual development technologies – the only alternative for a quick time-to-market is Html5.
More and more platforms are joining the Html5 journey: BlackBerry OS 6, Palm webOS (yes, I know it's HP now, but I insist of calling it Palm. I SHALL NEVER FORGET YOU PALM!), and Windows Phone 7 – this is a great sign that Html5 is a winning bet.
The Html5 protocol is progressing so fast no one cares about whether it's certified or not – it has local storage, offline capabilities, videos and media, it gets new native capabilities on every OS update – it is just unstoppable. The offline storage is key for enterprise solutions that must operate seamlessly both online and offline.
It's hard to find a good mobile developer, but there are plenty of web experts. Html5, CSS3, JavaScript – are very close to older web standards which means any web developer is potentially a mobile developer.
It is, truly, the only cross platform technology to date, and it comes with relatively easy adjustments capabilities for tablets, laptops, etc.
2012: The war is on: Native apps vs. Html5:


With html5 apps all over, companies like Apple, Google, Microsoft, will have to tune their Apps strategy. AppStores? Web Apps? Who wins, who loses. While Apple is already creating some restrictions to web apps (as expected I must add), which are clearly risking its' AppStore revenue model, Google is now taking the lead with some new native hardware capabilities for Html5 – that will continue to emerge during 2012 until most of the common requirements (camera access, contacts, file browsing, barcode scanning, printing, BT etc.) will become doable using Html5 (some of them are already doable now!).


In an interesting research, Smith’s Point Analytics estimates:


"Mobile web application will generate almost $2.6B in service revenue in 2015. These platforms, which enable web developers to create mobile applications using HTML5, JavaScript and CSS, will grow revenues at a 114%CAGR from 2010 to 2015."


According to the research, the revenues streams generated from the different app stores will change, some platforms allow creating native wrappers (such as PhoneGap) to run the web application in a kind of native box, allowing those apps to be available in the app stores. Other web apps are simply running from within the micro browser…


"The business model also changes as the revenue streams generated from app stores diminish causing platform vendors will turn to value added services to generate income."


Back to 2012 (hmm, there's a weird statement for you…), while more and more web apps are being developed, enterprise applications are adopting Html5 faster than consumer apps. There are a few reasons for that, historians will claim, few years later…


Enterprise applications do not need amazing graphics capabilities like games, for the classic enterprise needs – a standard forms based app is good enough. Add to it strong CSS3/JQuery visual capabilities and you end up having a skin-able app with rich UI, gestures and animations, that looks almost as good as a native app.
The benefits of supporting all platforms and all screen sizes – even at the cost of losing some usability attractiveness - is a key for most enterprise vendors.
2013: The war is over, most enterprise mobility solutions are now using Html5:


With or without native extensions, by 2013 I predict that the war will be over. No one in the enterprise software industry will start a project just for iPhone, or just for Windows Phone 7. Html5 will be a certified standard or very close to that. It will support all the native access required by the market, and who knows, it may even be able to run outside a browser or any other native replacement. It will be the way to go, just like web is today's obvious preferred way for desktop applications.


So there you have it; Gil Bouhnick's prediction for enterprise mobility in 2013.


It's the perfect way for me to get spanked for making the wrong assessment, or a forecast full of mistakes – but I figured it would be interesting to check it out in a year or two…