克里斯-德沃尔夫(Chris DeWolfe)是MySpace的联合创始人,目前是社交游戏公司SGN的CEO。几年前,他离开MySpace之后,与人联合创办了SGN在线社交游戏公司。SGN已经有几款成功的游戏,有报道说公司2013年的营收将达5000万美元,德沃尔夫拒绝确认数字。不过他证实公司已经盈利,在不久的将来将进行几次收购。
谈到游戏产业时,德沃尔夫一直很坦率。过去,他曾批评Zynga的游戏开发模式,他认为Zynga牺牲了好的财务数据换取太过快速的增长。依他的看法,Zynga的问题只是硅谷问题的一部分。过去几个月,德沃尔夫观察了一些创业型公司,它们营收无几但估值超高。德沃尔夫开始质问:硅谷到底怎么了?
Snapchat荒谬的估值
2011年5月,两名大学毕业生创办了Snapchat,它融资7300万美元,提供免费图片阅后即焚文本信息服务。尽管Snapchat营收很少,但它的估值已经达5亿美元。
我问德沃尔夫,对Snapchat有什么看法。他说:“我不看好,有许多应用会在3个月之后就落伍,Snapchat就是这样的应用之一。”
我也不看好Snapchat。除了估值的疯狂,我还无法理解一件事:为什么这么多VC在初期就给他如此高的估值?
首先,Snapchat创始人根本不需要那么多钱来扩大规模。第二,初期融资会稀释股份。第三,这也是最重要的,当初创始人想退出时,大多VC会限制你的选择。
德沃尔夫自己在MySpace得到了相似的教训:
“你不需要这么多钱,之所以这样说,是因为我们只用几百万美元就让MySpace盈利了。如果你知道如何赚钱,你知道如何获得用户,你就可以二者兼顾。你不需要这么多钱却融资这么多,我不太理解。”
许多备受关注的创业公司采用相似的策略,Snapchat只是其中之一 。创始人认为,营收和利润仅次于用户和使用率,在初期拥有更多资本,可以让创业企业与Facebook和Twitter对抗,让他们以高价收购自己。
这是最理想的设想。最糟糕的结果就是:Snapchat用户开始退去,它融得越来越多的钱但没有实际的营收方案。
Facebook效应
为什么在初期要融资这么多钱呢?
德沃尔夫认为:“所有这些人都看过电影《社交网络》,2007年加盟Facebook的销售人员现在身家达150万美元。Facebook创造了一种文化 :我们在退出时必须让企业估值达到10亿美元,否则就是失败。”
德沃尔夫认为这种心态对硅谷是一件坏事。
德沃尔夫称:“我想,以300万美元估值融资50万美元、然后以2000万美元估值出售公司,这种时代将会回归。只赚1500万美元没有什么错的。”http://t.163.com/event/info/eventId/-4523513146566000878
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