[最大似然估计 MLE] Codeforces 802DEF Helvetic Coding Contest 2017 D. E. F. Marmots

MLE

最大似然估计可以通过观察数据来估计出随机的模型和参数
最大似然估计(Maximum likelihood estimation)
Maximum likelihood estimation

大概就是从所有可能的参数和模型中，选出概率最大的那一组模型，作为估计的模型和参数

相关的还有一个最大后验估计(MAP)，我没看过

然后就很好写了

D

#include<cstdio>
#include<cstdlib>
#include<algorithm>
#include<cmath>
using namespace std;
typedef double ld;

ld fac[200005],ln[200005];

inline ld Poi(int x,int P){
  return x*ln[P]-P-fac[x];
}
inline ld Uni(int x,int P){
  if (x>2*P) return -1e20;
  return -ln[2*P+1];
}

const int N=255;

#define read(x) scanf("%d",&(x))

int T;
int a[N];

int main(){
  int T;
  freopen("t.in","r",stdin);
  freopen("t.out","w",stdout);
  read(T);
  fac[0]=0;
  for (int i=1;i<=200000;i++) fac[i]=fac[i-1]+(ln[i]=log(i));
  while (T--){
    for (int i=1;i<=250;i++) read(a[i]);
    int t=-1,P=-1; ld maxv=-1e20;
    for (int p=10;p<=1000;p++){
      ld ret=0;
      for (int i=1;i<=250;i++)
    ret+=Poi(a[i],p);
      if (ret>maxv) maxv=ret,t=0,P=p;
      ret=0;
      for (int i=1;i<=250;i++)
    ret+=Uni(a[i],p);
      if (ret>maxv) maxv=ret,t=1,P=p;
    }
    if (t==0)
      printf("poisson\n");
    else
      printf("uniform\n");
    //fprintf(stderr,"%d\n",P);
  }
  return 0;
}

E

#include<cstdio>
#include<cstdlib>
#include<algorithm>
#include<cmath>
using namespace std;
typedef double ld;

ld fac[200005],ln[200005];

inline ld Poi(int x,int P){
  return x*ln[P]-P-fac[x];
}
inline ld Uni(int x,int P){
  if (x>2*P) return -1e20;
  return -ln[2*P+1];
}

const int N=255;

#define read(x) scanf("%d",&(x))

int T;
int a[N];

int main(){
  int T;
  freopen("t.in","r",stdin);
  freopen("t.out","w",stdout);
  read(T);
  fac[0]=0;
  for (int i=1;i<=200000;i++) fac[i]=fac[i-1]+(ln[i]=log(i));
  while (T--){
    for (int i=1;i<=250;i++) read(a[i]);
    int t=-1,P=-1; ld maxv=-1e20;
    for (int p=10;p<=1000;p++){
      ld ret=0;
      for (int i=1;i<=250;i++)
    ret+=Poi(a[i],p);
      if (ret>maxv) maxv=ret,t=0,P=p;
      ret=0;
      for (int i=1;i<=250;i++)
    ret+=Uni(a[i],p);
      if (ret>maxv) maxv=ret,t=1,P=p;
    }
    /*if (t==0)
      printf("poisson\n");
    else
    printf("uniform\n");*/
    printf("%d\n",P);
  }
  return 0;
}

F

#include<cstdio>
#include<cstdlib>
#include<algorithm>
#include<cmath>
using namespace std;
typedef double ld;

ld fac[200005],ln[200005];

inline ld Poi(int x,int P){
  x+=P;
  return x*ln[P]-P-fac[x];
}
inline ld Uni(int x,int P){
  x+=P;
  if (x<0 || x>2*P) return -1e20;
  return -ln[2*P+1];
}

const int N=255;

#define read(x) scanf("%d",&(x))

int T;
int a[N];

int main(){
  int T;
  freopen("t.in","r",stdin);
  freopen("t.out","w",stdout);
  read(T);
  fac[0]=0;
  for (int i=1;i<=200000;i++) fac[i]=fac[i-1]+(ln[i]=log(i));
  while (T--){
    for (int i=1;i<=250;i++) read(a[i]);
    int t=-1,P=-1; ld maxv=-1e20;
    for (int p=1;p<=1000;p++){
      ld ret=0;
      for (int i=1;i<=250;i++)
    ret+=Poi(a[i],p);
      if (ret>maxv) maxv=ret,t=0,P=p;
      ret=0;
      for (int i=1;i<=250;i++)
    ret+=Uni(a[i],p);
      if (ret>maxv) maxv=ret,t=1,P=p;
    }
    if (t==0)
      printf("poisson\n");
    else
      printf("uniform\n");
    //printf("%d\n",P);
  }
  return 0;
}

乱搞

然后就是我在看到题解前的乱搞做法了

D

求出平均数，估计出$P$，然后因为值域大概是$[0,2P]$，我统计下落在$[0,{P\over3}]$之间的数量来估计

#include<cstdio>
#include<cstdlib>
#include<algorithm>
#include<cstring>
#define cl(x) memset(x,0,sizeof(x))
using namespace std;

#define read(x) scanf("%d",&(x))

const int N=10005;

int n,a[N];
int cnt[N];

int main(){
  int T;
  freopen("t.in","r",stdin);
  freopen("t.out","w",stdout);
  read(T);
  while (T--){
    cl(cnt); int ex=0;
    for (int i=1;i<=250;i++) read(a[i]),cnt[a[i]]++,ex+=a[i];
    ex/=250;
    int tot=0;
    for (int i=1;i<=ex/3;i++)
      tot+=cnt[i];
    if (tot<250/6-25)
      printf("poisson\n");
    else
      printf("uniform\n");
  }
  return 0;
}

E

现在要求$P$，先判断是哪种分布
如果是均匀分布，那么取最大值的一半，可以算出出错的概率是极低的
如果是高斯分布，那么直接输平均数吧

#include<cstdio>
#include<cstdlib>
#include<algorithm>
#include<cstring>
#include<ctime>
#define cl(x) memset(x,0,sizeof(x))
using namespace std;

#define read(x) scanf("%d",&(x))

const int N=10005;

int n,a[N];
int cnt[N];

int main(){
  int T; srand(time(0));
  read(T);
  while (T--){
    cl(cnt); double ex=0;
    for (int i=1;i<=250;i++) read(a[i]),cnt[a[i]]++,ex+=a[i];

    ex/=250;

    int tot=0;
    for (int i=1;i<=ex/3;i++)
      tot+=cnt[i];

    if (tot<250/6-25){

    }else{
      ex=0;
      for (int i=1;i<=250;i++)
    ex=max(ex,(double)a[i]);
      ex/=2.0;
    }

    printf("%.0lf\n",ex);
  }
  return 0;
}

F

分布大概是在$[-P,P]$，但高斯分布是可以$[-P,\infty]$的
通过最大最小值大概估计出$P$
然后对于$P$大的，我直接统计$|a|\le {P\over2}$和$|a|>{P\over 2}$的数量的比值
如果$P$比较小，可能会出错，尤其是$P=1$，那么就先判一下最大值是不是大于最小值

#include<cstdio>
#include<cstdlib>
#include<algorithm>
#include<cstring>
#include<ctime>
#include<cmath>
#include<cassert>
#define cl(x) memset(x,0,sizeof(x))
using namespace std;

#define read(x) scanf("%d",&(x))

const int N=10005;

int a[N];

int main(){
  freopen("t.in","r",stdin);
  freopen("t.out","w",stdout);
  int T; srand(time(0));
  read(T);
  while (T--){
    double ex=0;
    int minv=1<<30,maxv=-1<<30;
    int n=250;
    for (int i=1;i<=250;i++){
      if (!(~read(a[i]))) {n=i-1; break;}
      minv=min(minv,a[i]); maxv=max(maxv,a[i]);
    }
    int x=(abs(minv)+abs(maxv))/4;
    int c0=0,c1=0;
    for (int i=1;i<=n;i++)
      if (abs(a[i])<=x)
    c0++;
      else
    c1++;
    if (minv>=-10){
      if (abs(maxv)>abs(minv))
    printf("poisson\n");
      else{
    if (c1==0 || c0/c1>1.3)
      printf("poisson\n");
    else
      printf("uniform\n");
      }
      continue;
    }
    if (c1==0 || c0/c1>1.3)
      printf("poisson\n");
    else
      printf("uniform\n");
  }
  return 0;
}