Here we focus on 1. changes in honey bee populations over time. 2. sensitivity analysis of relevant factors. 3. in addition to its related practical issues.
1. We know that bee populations are influenced by many factors, such as climate, natural enemies, food, pesticides, viruses, etc. For the purpose of this study, after reviewing the data, we attribute it to three general influencing factors: birth rate, mortality rate, and age structure. We obtained the approximate values of birth rate and mortality rate by searching relevant papers, so we first directly used the Malthusian model to establish the ordinary differential equation for preliminary analysis. This is, of course, the ideal state, where the birth and mortality rates are stable and the population size does not reach the maximum environmental capacity of K. We then proceeded to a more detailed analysis, dividing the mortality and birth rates into four time periods throughout the year. We then used a logistic growth hysteresis model to solve the ordinary differential equation and plotted the change in bee population with time using matlab.
Subsequently, we considered the different age structures within honey bee populations in different seasons, which led to different egg production rates, so we constructed recursive functions to calculate the survival rate of young eggs and the proportion of reproducible bees in different seasons. The final conclusions were drawn.
2. By reviewing the relevant information, we first conducted a general analysis of infectious diseases, chemical drugs used in the colony and changes in the living environment, but we found that these were not the main factors affecting the change in colony size. We then performed sensitivity analyses for natural growth rate, endogenous growth rate, environmental accommodation, and each age grouping by building a logistic growth retardation model. The in-migration and out-migration rates were analyzed using the Leslie model. The age grouping and endogenous growth rate had the greatest effect on the honey bee population size.
3.We started with two analyses of the land shape, one using the minimum circle coverage theorem to obtain the geometry shown in Fig.
The second is a straight line. By assuming that the flowers are distributed with the same density, as well as that the average number of flowers picked by bees is two thousand per day, and that the pollination area per bee is a circular surface with a 6km radius centered on the hive. By simple calculation, the number of hives needed at least and at most is obtained.
This is our analysis of the problems related to the number of bees.