R：首次尝试线性回归

最新推荐文章于 2021-11-02 13:52:33 发布

danpu0978

最新推荐文章于 2021-11-02 13:52:33 发布

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文章标签：算法机器学习 python 大数据深度学习

本文介绍了作者在R中使用线性回归模型尝试预测活动回复人数的过程。通过建立包含多个预测变量的模型，作者发现模型能解释约85%的方差。在尝试剔除过于具体的事件名称特征后，模型解释的方差降低到44%，且系数无显著性。考虑到数据点较少可能是导致模型效果不佳的原因，作者计划寻找其他可能影响因素，如同时发生的其他事件和天气条件，以提升模型预测能力。

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我一直在研究R书中的《统计学习及其应用入门》随附的视频，并认为针对我的metup数据集尝试线性回归算法会很有趣。

我想看看线性回归算法可以很好地预测对某个特定事件进行回复的人数。我从以下代码开始构建一个包含一些潜在预测变量的数据框：

library(RNeo4j)
officeEventsQuery = "MATCH (g:Group {name: \"Neo4j - London User Group\"})-[:HOSTED_EVENT]->(event)<-[:TO]-({response: 'yes'})<-[:RSVPD]-(),
                           (event)-[:HELD_AT]->(venue)
                     WHERE (event.time + event.utc_offset) < timestamp() AND venue.name IN [\"Neo Technology\", \"OpenCredo\"]
                     RETURN event.time + event.utc_offset AS eventTime,event.announced_at AS announcedAt, event.name, COUNT(*) AS rsvps"
 
events = subset(cypher(graph, officeEventsQuery), !is.na(announcedAt))
events$eventTime <- timestampToDate(events$eventTime)
events$day <- format(events$eventTime, "%A")
events$monthYear <- format(events$eventTime, "%m-%Y")
events$month <- format(events$eventTime, "%m")
events$year <- format(events$eventTime, "%Y")
events$announcedAt<- timestampToDate(events$announcedAt)
events$timeDiff = as.numeric(events$eventTime - events$announcedAt, units = "days")

如果我们预览“事件”，则其中包含以下列：

> head(events)
            eventTime         announcedAt                                        event.name rsvps       day monthYear month year  timeDiff
1 2013-01-29 18:00:00 2012-11-30 11:30:57                                   Intro to Graphs    24   Tuesday   01-2013    01 2013 60.270174
2 2014-06-24 18:30:00 2014-06-18 19:11:19                                   Intro to Graphs    43   Tuesday   06-2014    06 2014  5.971308
3 2014-06-18 18:30:00 2014-06-08 07:03:13                         Neo4j World Cup Hackathon    24 Wednesday   06-2014    06 2014 10.476933
4 2014-05-20 18:30:00 2014-05-14 18:56:06                                   Intro to Graphs    53   Tuesday   05-2014    05 2014  5.981875
5 2014-02-11 18:00:00 2014-02-05 19:11:03                                   Intro to Graphs    35   Tuesday   02-2014    02 2014  5.950660
6 2014-09-04 18:30:00 2014-08-26 06:34:01 Hands On Intro to Cypher - Neo4j's Query Language    20  Thursday   09-2014    09 2014  9.497211

我们希望从其他列中预测“ rsvps”，因此我首先创建了一个线性模型，该模型考虑了所有其他列：

> summary(lm(rsvps ~., data = events))
 
Call:
lm(formula = rsvps ~ ., data = events)
 
Residuals:
    Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
-8.2582 -1.1538  0.0000  0.4158 10.5803 
 
Coefficients: (14 not defined because of singularities)
                                                                    Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   
(Intercept)                                                       -9.365e+03  3.009e+03  -3.113  0.00897 **
eventTime                                                          3.609e-06  2.951e-06   1.223  0.24479   
announcedAt                                                        3.278e-06  2.553e-06   1.284  0.22339   
event.nameGraph Modelling - Do's and Don'ts                        4.884e+01  1.140e+01   4.286  0.00106 **
event.nameHands on build your first Neo4j app for Java developers  3.735e+01  1.048e+01   3.562  0.00391 **
event.nameHands On Intro to Cypher - Neo4j's Query Language        2.560e+01  9.713e+00   2.635  0.02177 * 
event.nameIntro to Graphs                                          2.238e+01  8.726e+00   2.564  0.02480 * 
event.nameIntroduction to Graph Database Modeling                 -1.304e+02  4.835e+01  -2.696  0.01946 * 
event.nameLunch with Neo4j's CEO, Emil Eifrem                      3.920e+01  1.113e+01   3.523  0.00420 **
event.nameNeo4j Clojure Hackathon                                 -3.063e+00  1.195e+01  -0.256  0.80203   
event.nameNeo4j Python Hackathon with py2neo's Nigel Small         2.128e+01  1.070e+01   1.989  0.06998 . 
event.nameNeo4j World Cup Hackathon                                5.004e+00  9.622e+00   0.520  0.61251   
dayTuesday                                                         2.068e+01  5.626e+00   3.676  0.00317 **
dayWednesday                                                       2.300e+01  5.522e+00   4.165  0.00131 **
monthYear01-2014                                                  -2.350e+02  7.377e+01  -3.185  0.00784 **
monthYear02-2013                                                  -2.526e+01  1.376e+01  -1.836  0.09130 . 
monthYear02-2014                                                  -2.325e+02  7.763e+01  -2.995  0.01118 * 
monthYear03-2013                                                  -4.605e+01  1.683e+01  -2.736  0.01805 * 
monthYear03-2014                                                  -2.371e+02  8.324e+01  -2.848  0.01468 * 
monthYear04-2013                                                  -6.570e+01  2.309e+01  -2.845  0.01477 * 
monthYear04-2014                                                  -2.535e+02  8.746e+01  -2.899  0.01336 * 
monthYear05-2013                                                  -8.672e+01  2.845e+01  -3.049  0.01011 * 
monthYear05-2014                                                  -2.802e+02  9.420e+01  -2.975  0.01160 * 
monthYear06-2013                                                  -1.022e+02  3.283e+01  -3.113  0.00897 **
monthYear06-2014                                                  -2.996e+02  1.003e+02  -2.988  0.01132 * 
monthYear07-2014                                                  -3.123e+02  1.054e+02  -2.965  0.01182 * 
monthYear08-2013                                                  -1.326e+02  4.323e+01  -3.067  0.00976 **
monthYear08-2014                                                  -3.060e+02  1.107e+02  -2.763  0.01718 * 
monthYear09-2013                                                          NA         NA      NA       NA   
monthYear09-2014                                                  -3.465e+02  1.164e+02  -2.976  0.01158 * 
monthYear10-2012                                                   2.602e+01  1.959e+01   1.328  0.20886   
monthYear10-2013                                                  -1.728e+02  5.678e+01  -3.044  0.01020 * 
monthYear11-2012                                                   2.717e+01  1.509e+01   1.800  0.09704 . 
month02                                                                   NA         NA      NA       NA   
month03                                                                   NA         NA      NA       NA   
month04                                                                   NA         NA      NA       NA   
month05                                                                   NA         NA      NA       NA   
month06                                                                   NA         NA      NA       NA   
month07                                                                   NA         NA      NA       NA   
month08                                                                   NA         NA      NA       NA   
month09                                                                   NA         NA      NA       NA   
month10                                                                   NA         NA      NA       NA   
month11                                                                   NA         NA      NA       NA   
year2013                                                                  NA         NA      NA       NA   
year2014                                                                  NA         NA      NA       NA   
timeDiff                                                                  NA         NA      NA       NA   
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
 
Residual standard error: 5.287 on 12 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.9585,	Adjusted R-squared:  0.8512 
F-statistic: 8.934 on 31 and 12 DF,  p-value: 0.0001399

据我了解，我们可以查看R平方值以了解模型已解释了数据中的多少方差-在这种情况下为85％。

许多系数似乎都基于特定的事件名称，这对我来说似乎太具体了，所以我想看看如果我派生一个指示会话是否可行的功能会发生什么：

events$practical = grepl("Hackathon|Hands on|Hands On", events$event.name)

现在，我们可以使用排除了“ event.name”字段的新列再次运行模型：

> summary(lm(rsvps ~., data = subset(events, select = -c(event.name))))
 
Call:
lm(formula = rsvps ~ ., data = subset(events, select = -c(event.name)))
 
Residuals:
    Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
-18.647  -2.311   0.000   2.908  23.218 
 
Coefficients: (13 not defined because of singularities)
                   Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
(Intercept)      -3.980e+03  4.752e+03  -0.838   0.4127  
eventTime         2.907e-06  3.873e-06   0.751   0.4621  
announcedAt       3.336e-08  3.559e-06   0.009   0.9926  
dayTuesday        7.547e+00  6.080e+00   1.241   0.2296  
dayWednesday      2.442e+00  7.046e+00   0.347   0.7327  
monthYear01-2014 -9.562e+01  1.187e+02  -0.806   0.4303  
monthYear02-2013 -4.230e+00  2.289e+01  -0.185   0.8553  
monthYear02-2014 -9.156e+01  1.254e+02  -0.730   0.4742  
monthYear03-2013 -1.633e+01  2.808e+01  -0.582   0.5676  
monthYear03-2014 -8.094e+01  1.329e+02  -0.609   0.5496  
monthYear04-2013 -2.249e+01  3.785e+01  -0.594   0.5595  
monthYear04-2014 -9.230e+01  1.401e+02  -0.659   0.5180  
monthYear05-2013 -3.237e+01  4.654e+01  -0.696   0.4952  
monthYear05-2014 -1.015e+02  1.509e+02  -0.673   0.5092  
monthYear06-2013 -3.947e+01  5.355e+01  -0.737   0.4701  
monthYear06-2014 -1.081e+02  1.604e+02  -0.674   0.5084  
monthYear07-2014 -1.110e+02  1.678e+02  -0.661   0.5163  
monthYear08-2013 -5.144e+01  6.988e+01  -0.736   0.4706  
monthYear08-2014 -1.023e+02  1.784e+02  -0.573   0.5731  
monthYear09-2013 -6.057e+01  7.893e+01  -0.767   0.4523  
monthYear09-2014 -1.260e+02  1.874e+02  -0.672   0.5094  
monthYear10-2012  9.557e+00  2.873e+01   0.333   0.7430  
monthYear10-2013 -6.450e+01  9.169e+01  -0.703   0.4903  
monthYear11-2012  1.689e+01  2.316e+01   0.729   0.4748  
month02                  NA         NA      NA       NA  
month03                  NA         NA      NA       NA  
month04                  NA         NA      NA       NA  
month05                  NA         NA      NA       NA  
month06                  NA         NA      NA       NA  
month07                  NA         NA      NA       NA  
month08                  NA         NA      NA       NA  
month09                  NA         NA      NA       NA  
month10                  NA         NA      NA       NA  
month11                  NA         NA      NA       NA  
year2013                 NA         NA      NA       NA  
year2014                 NA         NA      NA       NA  
timeDiff                 NA         NA      NA       NA  
practicalTRUE    -9.388e+00  5.289e+00  -1.775   0.0919 .
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
 
Residual standard error: 10.21 on 19 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.7546,	Adjusted R-squared:  0.4446 
F-statistic: 2.434 on 24 and 19 DF,  p-value: 0.02592

现在，我们仅考虑了44％的方差，而且我们的系数均不显着，因此这并不是一个很好的变化。

我还注意到，与日期相关的功能有些重叠–我们在monthYear中有一个专栏，然后在month和year中有单独的专栏。让我们删除合并的一个：

> summary(lm(rsvps ~., data = subset(events, select = -c(event.name, monthYear))))
 
Call:
lm(formula = rsvps ~ ., data = subset(events, select = -c(event.name, 
    monthYear)))
 
Residuals:
     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
-16.5745  -4.0507  -0.1042   3.6586  24.4715 
 
Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities)
                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
(Intercept)   -1.573e+03  4.315e+03  -0.364   0.7185  
eventTime      3.320e-06  3.434e-06   0.967   0.3425  
announcedAt   -2.149e-06  2.201e-06  -0.976   0.3379  
dayTuesday     4.713e+00  5.871e+00   0.803   0.4294  
dayWednesday  -2.253e-01  6.685e+00  -0.034   0.9734  
month02        3.164e+00  1.285e+01   0.246   0.8075  
month03        1.127e+01  1.858e+01   0.607   0.5494  
month04        4.148e+00  2.581e+01   0.161   0.8736  
month05        1.979e+00  3.425e+01   0.058   0.9544  
month06       -1.220e-01  4.271e+01  -0.003   0.9977  
month07        1.671e+00  4.955e+01   0.034   0.9734  
month08        8.849e+00  5.940e+01   0.149   0.8827  
month09       -5.496e+00  6.782e+01  -0.081   0.9360  
month10       -5.066e+00  7.893e+01  -0.064   0.9493  
month11        4.255e+00  8.697e+01   0.049   0.9614  
year2013      -1.799e+01  1.032e+02  -0.174   0.8629  
year2014      -3.281e+01  2.045e+02  -0.160   0.8738  
timeDiff              NA         NA      NA       NA  
practicalTRUE -9.816e+00  5.084e+00  -1.931   0.0645 .
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
 
Residual standard error: 10.19 on 26 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.666,	Adjusted R-squared:  0.4476 
F-statistic: 3.049 on 17 and 26 DF,  p-value: 0.005187

同样，没有一个系数在统计上有意义，这令人失望。我认为主要的问题可能是我的数据点很少（只有42个），很难提出一个通用模型。

我认为下一步是寻找其他可能影响RSVP数量的功能，例如当天的其他事件，天气。

我不是这个新手，但想尝试学习更多，因此，如果您对下一步该做什么有任何想法，请告诉我。