Gartner预测：2010年IT9大趋势

Gartner预测：2010年IT9大趋势

预测一：到2012年，20%的商业公司将不再拥有IT资产

市场涵义：

尽管对计算硬件的需求不会消失，但IT资产的实际拥有权将发生变化，这将引起IT硬件工业的反响。

—例如，企业的IT预算要么减少，要么—在更开明的组织—重新分配到更具战略性的项目上。特别是IT员工以及硬件专家将面临下岗，或者需要再培训来满足其它需求。下岗的硬件专家发现自己追逐的是一个夕阳产业。

IT硬件将出现的新的购买者，如云服务提供商，垂直应用的增值零售商（VAR），服务器维护组织以及最终用户的PC、笔记本和手持通讯设备，为迎接这些挑战，硬件分销商不得不脱胎换骨。这意味着硬件OEM销售战略必须适应新买主的需求。

服务器对企业的销售占比将减小。

无任何附加条件的纯粹的裸机销售将增加。

对传统的企业客户，交钥匙方案将越来越重要。

PC销售将转向最终客户、个人买家。雇员采购可能是来自客户个人投资或雇主的补贴计划。

预测二：到2012年，在领先的云计算市场中，印度的IT服务公司将占到20%份额。

市场涵义：

随着云计算破土而出，组织需要评估他们的潜力。市场的这一改变将帮助CIO们和商业单位的领袖们理解和分辨：云服务供应商、IT服务、软件和基础设施组件。

很多印度的供应商，已经利用“透明性”来建立西方购买者的信心。这样一来，如果印度的提供商在开发云服务方面扮演稳固的角色，CIO们和商业单位的领袖将在更大程度上拥抱这一“透明性”。

印度供应商的研发部门，将在基于云方案的方向上努力，这些云方案来自各种类型的IT提供商，这样会创造更多的选择和更多的市场竞争。随着时间的推移，这将引发更深层次、更高质量的产品。这些新的产品，又将加快从传统到产业的转换，加快实用工具和基于云服务的增长。

购买者—商业单位的采购团队和IT组织—将被迫从那些只简单交付竞争性的部分，分离出独特的、真正驱动竞争优势的商业流程领域。那些能够适当地在企业内部精选的领域里，采用新的实用工具和基于云的产品的组织—拥有很强的风险管理技能—将在业界获得重要的优势。

预测三：Facebook将变成社交网络集成和Web社交化的轴心

市场涵义

Facebook上活跃的用户数—已经是最大的社交网络社区—到2010年将达到10亿。15000余网络站点、设备和应用程序已用于实现Facebook Connect API和协议。这些互操作将成为Facebook成功和其它社交网络、沟通渠道和媒体站点生存的关键。

简单说，Facebook对于商户来说过于庞大，商户们无法将之纳入到他们的B2C策略中。对于广告、交流、市场宣传和客户支持，Facebook的潜力是巨大的。也就是说，Facebook现象存在两个方面，组织应该认真跟踪。这些包括：

—隐私问题，在与其它站点和网络集成中Facebook扮演的角色不断加重的过程中，这是唯一的绊脚石。

—可能存在来自远东的具有破坏性的影响，特别是中国的QQ，假如中国政府允许Facebook在开放的市场上竞争的话，QQ有可能超过Facebook。即使这不太可能发生，但它留下一个可能性，Gartner在2010年将密切注视着。

预测四：到2014年，大多数IT商业案例将包含低碳成本

市场涵义：

将碳成本计入商业案例将有助于向企业提供节能措施，也为有助于组织准备好接受增加的碳影响审查。

节约能源不说，二氧化碳排放和气候变化之间的因果关系，已经广泛地被发达经济体的政客和主流媒体所接受。所以，惩罚二氧化碳排放公司的政策陆续出台，每排放10吨二氧化碳的罚金范围跨度很大，可从10美元到50美元不等。考虑碳排放分析让企业管理者能更好地理解政策变化对业务带来的影响。

从实践上讲，碳成本是能源成本的一部分，需要将排放因子（每千瓦时的碳排放量）和碳处理投入的成本相加。所以更新数据表格只是小菜一碟。碳问题是全球性的，我们期待大多数组织2014年之前将碳成本计入IT业务。

预测五：2010年，用户购买新PC的第一次开机前，整个温室气体已排放了60%。

市场涵义：

由于PC生产的复杂性，一台PC消耗的能源的80%发生在生产和运输途中。

PC升级可以推迟购买新PC，PC升级早已被提出来作为减少环境影响的有效战略。

在理想情况下，PC更模块化、更强壮，它们可以升级以延长寿命。由于显而易见的欲望，工业界没有将升级作为其战略。随着二氧化碳排放量的增加，PC制造商和供应商面临着交付更模块化、可升级的PC的压力。

制造商、供应商和PC用户如何对不断增长的趋势作出反应，是Gartner来年继续研究的焦点。

预测六：互联网市场将在2015年之前被管制，在世界范围内控制互联网市场上多于2500亿美元的花费。

市场涵义：

互联网消费者所蕴藏的能量不可小视。最终市场商人将滥用互联网渠道，折腾客户，以达到理发机构管制互联网活动的目的。结果会是：

—以互联网为主作为市场宣传的公司会发现他们自己不能有效地向客户开展市场活动，他们处于竞争劣势地位。

—以互联网广告生产为主的供应商会发现自己面对一个萎缩的市场，因为客户慢慢转移到其它渠道上去。

Gartner将密切监视和评估这一趋势，并向广告商和互联网上做生意的商户提供策略，帮助他们延迟或避免这一心头之患。

预测七：到2014年，30多亿成人将在手机和互联网上交易。

市场涵义

彻底改变世界贸易经济的两个趋势正在涌现：

—在新兴经济体里，移动和互联网技术的采用正在迅速崛起。

—移动支付、移动商务和移动银行的到来

两个趋势联合，将为占世界人口相当比例的人们开启电子交易的途径。对这些刚刚从新兴经济体解放出来的人们，会发送短消息（SMS）、电子邮件和支付帐号，就意味着他们能够通向这个约一万亿美元的全球市场。

对于可口可乐和加乐福这样的全球性商行，他们的能力将得到延伸，能够和这个星球上的绝大部分人达成交易。

象eBay、淘宝、和Craigslist，C2C交易将拥有巨大的机会。

对于移动运营商、互联网公司和金融机构来说，供应能力和资金转移能力方面存在一个巨大的新市场。

2010年全年，Gartner将跟踪和分析这些联锁趋势的复杂关系。

预测八：到2015年，上下文之于移动消费者服务和消费者关系，就象现在的搜索引擎之于Web一样。

市场涵义：

上下文敏感计算将颠覆性地影响商业—特别是对零售商、金融服务、媒体、卫生保健和电讯企业。

在上下文业务模型中占据最有利地形的是上下文提供商。我们认为Google、 Nokia、Apple、Microsoft和通信服务提供商这样的企业成为这一领域的服务、平台和解决方案的领头羊。

联盟将成为关键。因为很多组织只拥有技术和商业基础的一部分，没有一个供应商拥有全部。

例如，网络运营商和社交网络之间的联盟—前者可以提供位置和计费，后者带来客户、开发团队和一些软件工具—可产生强大的竞争优势。

预测九：到2013年，手机将取代PC，成为最常用的上网工具。
根据Gartner的估计：

l 2012年PC总数达到16.2亿，尽管有些没有连上互联网，但均具备上网能力。

l 到2012年，职能手机和装备浏览器的手机总数将超过16.9亿部。2012年之后，这一数字将超过PC。

不过，在2012年大多数用户仍使用PC作为主要的上网工具，手机是次要的上网工具。然而，随着智能手机全球遍地开花，2015年将取代PC成为最常用的主要的上网设备。

这一变化意味着，很多网站要重新调整格式或重建。移动设备用户点击会更少，网站如果不为手机小屏幕做优化的话，将面临很多风险，如用户数和交易量减少。

下面这些公司对这个市场障碍特别关注：

l 地处没有普及PC的地方

l 拥有直接面对消费者的网站

l 被教育机构和政府部门使用的信息门户

在线零售商、银行和金融服务提供商面临的风险最大。

Gartner Top End User Predictions for 2010:

Coping with the New Balance of Power

Summary Report

By 2012, 20% of businesses will own no IT assets

Market Implications:

While the need for computing hardware will not go away, the shift of actual ownership of it will reverberate throughout every facet of the IT hardware industry.

— For example, enterprise IT budgets either will shrink or—in more enlightened organizations—be re-allocated to more strategic projects. IT staffers, and hardware specialists in particular, will face layoffs or will need to be retrained to meet other requirements. Laid-off hardware specialists find themselves chasing a declining job pool.

Hardware distribution will have to change radically to meet the requirements of the new IT hardware buying points such as cloud services providers, vertical application value-added retailers (VARs), server farm maintenance organizations as well as end users for PCs, notebooks and handheld communications devices. This, in turn, will mean that hardware OEM sales strategies must adapt to meet the requirements of the new buyers.

Enterprise sales of servers will become a shrinking part of overall share.

Low-margin, bare metal sales will increase.

Turn-key solutions will become increasingly important for traditional enterprise customers.

PC sales will shift toward end-user, personal buyers. The employee purchases may be out-of-pocket from consumer channels or from employer-subsidized plans.

By 2012, India-centric IT service companies will represent 20% of the leading cloud aggregators in the market (through cloud service offerings).

Market Implications:

As cloud computing continues to emerge as a disruptive force, organizations will want to assess its potential for their organizations. This change in the market will help CIOs and business unit heads understand and delineate the vendors, IT services, software and infrastructure components.

Many Indian vendors have used transparency as a way to build the confidence of Western buyers in foreign IT service providers. Thus, if India-centric providers play a substantial role in developing cloud service offerings, CIOs and business unit leaders will embrace this transparency to an even greater extent.

The R&D efforts of Indian vendors will speed development of cloud-based solutions from all types of IT providers, which will create more choice and more competition in the market. Over time, it will result in deeper, higher-quality offerings. These new offerings, in turn, will accelerate the transition from traditional to industrial offerings and the growth of utility and cloud-based services.

Buyers—business unit teams and IT organizations—will be forced to separate unique business process areas that truly drive competitive advantage from those that simply deliver competitive parity. Organizations that can appropriately adopt newer utility and cloud-based offerings in select areas of their enterprises—with a heavy dose of strong risk management skills—will gain an important advantage within their industries.

By 2012, Facebook will become the hub for social networks integration and Web socialization.

Market Implications:

The number of active users on Facebook—already the largest social network community—is expected to rocket to more than a billion by the end of 2010. More than 15,000 websites, devices and applications have implemented the Facebook Connect APIs and protocols to interface with Facebook. This interoperability will become critical to the success and survival of other social networks, communication channels and media sites.

Facebook is simply too big for firms not to factor it into their B2C strategies. Its potential for advertising, communication, marketing and client support is huge. That said, there are two aspects of the Facebook phenomenon that organization should track carefully. They include:

— Privacy issues, which will only get thornier as Facebook’s role in integration with other websites and networks increases.

— The possible disruptive influence from the Far East, speciically QQ in China, which could outstrip Facebook should the Chinese government allow it to compete on the open market. While this is an unlikely scenario, it remains a possibility and will be tracked closely by Gartner throughout 2010.

By 2014, most IT business cases will include carbon remediation costs.

Market Implications:

Incorporating carbon costs into business cases will help provide organizations with a measure of savings, as well as help prepare organizations for increased scrutiny of their carbon impact.

Energy savings aside, the link between carbon dioxide (C02) emissions and climate change is widely accepted by politicians and mainstream media in developed economies. Therefore, policies are emerging that will penalize companies for CO2 emissions. These penalties could easily range of between $10 and $50 per ton of CO2 emitted. Incorporating carbon analysis gives a manager the ability to better understand the impact of policy changes on the business.

In practical terms, carbon costs shadow energy costs, requiring the addition of an emissions factor (carbon emissions per kWh) and a projected cost of carbon remediation. Therefore, updating the spreadsheets is a moderately simple task. As carbon emissions are a global issue, we expect most organizations to include carbon costs in IT business cases by 2014.

In 2012, 60% of a new PC’s total life greenhouse gas emissions will have occurred before the user first turns the machine on.

Market Implications:

Due to the complex nature of PC production, 80% of the energy a PC consumes during its lifetime occurs during production and transport.

PC upgrading, which can delay the need to purchase new PCs, has long been suggested as an effective strategy for reducing the environmental impact.

In an environmentally ideal world, PCs would be more modular and robust, allowing them to be upgraded to extend life. Due to the obvious implications on demand, the industry has not pursued upgrading as a strategy. As usage-related CO2 emissions grow, PC manufacturers and vendors can expect pressure to deliver more modular, upgradable PCs.

How manufacturers, vendors and PC users will need to respond to this growing trend will be a focus of Gartner research during the coming year.

Internet marketing will be regulated by 2015, controlling more than $250 billion in Internet marketing spending worldwide.

Market Implications:

The potential backlash from consumers on Internet marketing cannot be underestimated. Eventually marketers WILL abuse the Internet channel and annoy customers enough to generate an outcry strong enough to push legislation regulating Internet marketing activity. Consequences will include:

— That companies focusing primarily on the Internet for marketing purposes could find themselves unable to market effectively to customers, putting themselves at a competitive disadvantage.

— Vendors that focus solely or predominately on producing Internet marketing could find themselves faced with a declining market, as companies shift marketing funds to other channels to compensate.

Gartner will monitor and evaluate trends in this arena closely and offer strategies for both advertisers and Internet marketing firms that can help delay or avoid the pitfalls that lie ahead.

By 2014, more than three billion of the world’s adult population will be able to transact electronically via mobile and Internet technology.

Market Implications:

Two trends are merging that will drastically alter the future of the world’s trading economy:

— The rapid rise of mobile and Internet technology adoption in emerging economies.

— Advances in mobile payment, commerce and banking.

Together they will open the way for a significant portion of the world’s adult population to transact electronically. For many of these newly enfranchised consumers from emerging economies, the ability to use short message service (SMS), e-mail or payment accounts will constitute their first and only access to the estimated $1 trillion global economy.

For global firms such as Coca Cola and Carrefour, it will provide electronic reach and the ability to transact with a significant majority of adults on the planet.

For entities such as eBay, TaoBao or Craigslist, it will open a huge opportunity for consumer-to-consumer transactions.

For mobile operators, Internet companies and financial institutions, it will open vast new markets for the provision of transactional and funds transfer capabilities.

Gartner will track and analyze the intricacies of these interlocking trends throughout 2010.

By 2015, context will be as influential to mobile consumer services and relationships as search engines are to the Web.

Market Implications:

Context-aware computing will have a transformation, disruptive effect on business—particularly for retailers, financial services, media, healthcare, and telecom firms.

The most powerful position in the context business model will be the context provider. We expect firms like Google, Nokia, Apple, Microsoft, and communication service providers to lead the way in creating these services, platforms and business ecosystems.

Alliances will be key, since many organizations have part of the technical or commercial foundations for context, but no vendor as yet has them all.

— For example, an alliance between a network operator and a social network—where the former could provide location and billing and the latter brings customers, developers and some software tools—could yield a strong competitive position

—

By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide.

According to Gartner estimates:

l The total number of PCs in use will reach 1.62 billion units in 2012, all of which are capable of Internet access, even if some are not connected.

l By 2012, the combined installed base of smartphones and browser-equipped enhanced phones will exceed 1.69 billion units. From 2012 onwards, this combined installed base will be greater than the installed base for PCs.

Nevertheless, most users in 2012 will use a PC as their primary Web access device and their phone as a secondary access device. However, as use of smartphones spreads globally, they will overtake the PC as the most common primary device for Web access sometime in 2015.

This shift means that many websites will need to be reformatted or rebuilt. Mobile device users typically make many fewer “clicks” on a website than PC users, and websites not optimized for smaller screen formats will risk reduced customer interaction and fewer transactions.

This market barrier will be of particularly concern to:

l Organizations in geographies where the PC is not as prevalent.

l Organizations with consumer-facing websites.

l Informational portals used by educational institutions and the government sector

Online retailers, banks and inancial service providers will be the most exposed to this risk.