如何确定检验自己的产品是否达到product-market fit — 来自 a16z

背景:"Product-market fit 定义

 writes startup coach and investor Marc Andreessen, "means being in a good market with a product that can satisfy that market." When an entrepreneur identifies a need in the market and builds a solution that customers want to buy, that's product-market fit. 


创业教练兼投资人 Marc Andreessen 写道:“产品与市场的契合意味着处于一个好的市场中,拥有能够满足该市场的产品。当企业家确定市场需求并构建客户想要购买的解决方案时,这就是产品与市场的契合度。

正文:如何确定检验自己的产品是否达到product-market fit 

People often say funnily, “Product-market Fit is like porn…when you see it, you just know.”
人们经常开玩笑地说,“产品与市场的契合就像色情......当你看到它时,你就知道了。

When the customers aren’t quite getting much value out of the product/service, word of mouth isn’t spreading, usage isn’t growing that fast (spikes in the months where you advertise), press reviews are kind of “blah”, the sales cycle takes too long, and most of the deals never close - Marc Andreessen.
当客户没有从产品/服务中获得太多价值时,口碑没有传播,使用量没有增长那么快(在你做广告的几个月里会激增),媒体评论有点“废话”,销售周期太长,而且大多数交易永远不会完成 - 马克·安德森

Most startups that have raised ($5-$10 Mn) Series A funding, assume they’ve got a product-market fit, just because they’ve raised funding. They’re wrong, why do you think 70% of startups that raised Series A still fail, because the no.1 reason was lack of PMF!
大多数已经筹集了(500万至1000万美元)A轮融资的初创公司,仅仅因为他们已经筹集了资金,就认为他们已经完成了产品市场契合。他们错了,为什么你认为 70% 筹集 A 轮融资的初创公司仍然失败,因为第一大原因是缺乏 PMF!

From X (Christina Bunk) 从X(克里斯蒂娜·邦克)

You have it … 你有它......

On a high level, you’ve found product market fit when you can repeatably acquire customers for a lower cost (CAC) than what they are worth (LTV) to you
从高层次上讲,当您可以以低于客户价值 (LTV) 的成本 (CAC) 重复获取客户时,您已经找到了产品市场契合度

Elizabeth Yin (Hustle Fund)
Elizabeth Yin (喧嚣基金)

“You can always feel when Product/Market Fit is happening. The customers are buying the product just as fast as you can make it — or usage is growing just as fast as you can add more servers. Money from customers is piling up in your company’s account.
“你总是可以感觉到产品/市场契合度何时发生。客户购买产品的速度与您生产的速度一样快,或者使用量的增长速度与您添加更多服务器的速度一样快。来自客户的钱堆积在贵公司的账户中。

You’re hiring sales and customer support staff as fast as you can. Reporters are calling because they’ve heard about your hot new thing and they want to talk to you about it.” — Marc Andreessen
您正在尽快招聘销售和客户支持人员。记者们打电话来是因为他们听说了你的热门新事物,他们想和你谈谈这件事。

When product-market fit occurs something magical happens, all of a sudden your customers become your salespeople i.e. they sell for you — Josh Porter.
当产品与市场的契合度发生时,神奇的事情就会发生,突然之间,你的客户变成了你的销售人员,即他们为你销售——乔什·波特。

What metrics to track and analyze, whether you’ve achieved the Product/Market Fit?
要跟踪和分析哪些指标,您是否已实现产品/市场契合度?

Let’s delve into quantitative metrics of finding Product/Market Fit:
让我们深入研究寻找产品/市场契合度的定量指标:

A. Product/Market Fit Metrics for SaaS Businesses
A. SaaS 业务的产品/市场契合度指标

David Rusenko recommends that founders offering SaaS should track the below 6 metrics to evaluate Product/Market Fit:
David Rusenko 建议提供 SaaS 的创始人应跟踪以下 6 个指标来评估产品/市场契合度:

  1. Returning Usage (Day 1,3,7,30 retention): Look at people who sign up to your site/app and then look at the number of people who return back within 1,3,7,30 day/s. This should indicate whether things are working or aren’t.
    返回使用量(第 1、3、7、30 天留存):查看注册您的网站/应用的用户数,然后查看在 1、3、7、30 天/秒内返回的人数。这应该表明事情是否正常工作。
  2. A Net Promoter Score (NPS) of > 50 means you’re doing well.
    净推荐值 (NPS) 为 > 50 意味着您做得很好。
  3. Paying Customer Renewal Rates or Retention: Renewal rate is defined as the number of people who are eligible to renew and what percentage of people actually renewed is a lot better metric than churn. Churn rate(Churned customers / total customers) is a lot easier to measure, but it can be deceiving at times.
    支付客户续订率保留率:续订率定义为有资格续订的人数以及实际续订的人数百分比比流失率要好得多。流失率(流失客户/总客户)更容易衡量,但有时可能会具有欺骗性。
  4. Growth Rate: Consistent growth of at least 15% in MRR and ARR is a strong indicator of Product/Market Fit. Irregular spikes, flattening, or declining growth are some of the red flags to watch for.
    增长率:MRR 和 ARR 持续增长至少 15% 是产品/市场契合度的有力指标。不规则的峰值、趋于平缓或增长下降是一些需要关注的危险信号。
  5. Market Share: How quickly are you gaining/losing the market share?
    市场份额:您获得/失去市场份额的速度有多快?
  6. Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) vs. Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC): A ratio of 3X and a CAC payback of < 18 months is ideal for SaaS startups.
    客户生命周期价值 (CLV) 与客户获取成本 (CAC):3 倍的比率和 < 18 个月的 CAC 投资回收期是 SaaS 初创公司的理想选择。

B. Product/Market Fit Survey
B. 产品/市场契合度调查

Rahul Vora in this article shares how he used a “simple survey” to assess whether his venture (Superhuman) has achieved the Product/Market Fit. Here’s how you can replicate it:
Rahul Vora 在这篇文章中分享了他如何使用“简单调查”来评估他的企业(Superhuman)是否达到了产品/市场契合度。以下是复制它的方法:

Survey all your users with this simple question:
用这个简单的问题调查所有用户:

Q. How disappointed would you feel if you could no longer use our product/service?
问:如果您无法再使用我们的产品/服务,您会感到多大的失望吗?

  • Very disappointed 非常失望
  • Somewhat disappointed 有点失望
  • Not disappointed 不失望

The magic number that indicates the Product Market Fit is when > 40% of users respond as “very disappointed.” The companies that struggle on the same can barely even touch 40%.
表示产品市场契合度的神奇数字是当> 40% 的用户回应为“非常失望”时。在同样问题上苦苦挣扎的公司甚至只能勉强触及40%。

51% of Slack users responded that they would be very disappointed without Slack, revealing that it had indeed attained product/market fit.
51% 的 Slack 用户回答说,如果没有 Slack,他们会感到非常失望,这表明它确实达到了产品/市场的契合度。

C. Retention and Customer Love
C. 留住人才和客户之爱

Rajan Anandan MD, Sequoia Capital recommends two simple methods to evaluate, whether you’ve achieved the product/market fit:
拉詹·阿南丹红杉资本董事总经理推荐两种简单的方法来评估您是否已经达到了产品/市场的契合度:

The retention curve is what percentage of your users keep coming back over some time while using your product/service.
留存率曲线是指在使用您的产品/服务时,您的用户在一段时间内不断回来的百分比。

Image source: Sequoia 图片来源:红杉

Essentially, there are 3 kinds of retention curves, and you should plot this curve by day, week, or month, once you launch your product.
从本质上讲,有 3 种留存曲线,一旦您推出产品,您应该按天、周或月绘制这条曲线。

a. Declining Curve (dark grey line), let’s say you’ve launched a consumer internet app on day 0, and every week your retention rate declines by 10%, which essentially means that by the end of 3rd month, all your initial users would have churned, then that’s a declining curve, which indicates that you don’t have a product-market fit.
a. 下降曲线(深灰色线),假设您在第 0 天推出了一个消费者互联网应用程序,并且您的留存率每周下降 10%,这基本上意味着到第 3 个月结束时,您的所有初始用户都会流失,那么这就是一条下降曲线,这表明您没有产品与市场的契合度。

b. Flattening Curve (orange line) is actually good, although it kind of varies depending upon the category (HealthTech, EdTech, etc.,) but generically speaking if the retention curve flattens between 20%-40% that could be quite good.
b. 平坦曲线(橙色线)实际上很好,尽管它根据类别(健康科技、教育科技等)而有所不同,但一般来说,如果留存曲线在 20%-40% 之间平坦,那可能相当不错。

c. Finally the best one is the Smiling Retention Curve (green line), which means that retention drops but then as time goes on you keep reactivating users, which indicates that you’re getting close to your product-market fit.
c. 最后,最好的一个是微笑留存曲线(绿线),这意味着留存率会下降,但随着时间的推移,你会不断重新激活用户,这表明你正在接近你的产品市场契合度。

C2. Do Customers Love You?
C2.客户爱你吗?

Net Promoter Score (NPS) is a metric that organizations use to measure customer loyalty toward their brand, product or service. NPS works by asking your customers a single question: “How likely are you to recommend our products/services to others?”
净推荐值 (NPS) 是组织用来衡量客户对其品牌、产品或服务的忠诚度的指标。NPS 的工作原理是向您的客户提出一个问题:“您向其他人推荐我们的产品/服务的可能性有多大

  • NPS = % Promoters (score 9–10) — % Detractors (score 0–6)
    NPS = % 促进者(得分 9-10)— % 批评者(得分 0-6)

If the magic score is = 70% or more, then you have an amazing product-market fit. But if the number declines to 40% or below, then you don’t have it. It’s that simple!
如果魔术分数是 = 70% 或更多,那么您的产品与市场的契合度就达到了惊人的水平。但是,如果这个数字下降到 40% 或更低,那么你就没有它。就是这么简单!

What if you don’t have a Product/Market Fit?
如果您没有适合的产品/市场怎么办?

  • Encourage founders to continue to talk to customers, care about their customers, learn about their problems, and solve them effectively — Michael Siebel, Partner-YC.
    鼓励创始人继续与客户交谈,关心他们的客户,了解他们的问题,并有效地解决问题——Michael Siebel,YC合伙人。
  • Most founders seek ineffective shortcuts to achieve Product/Market Fit (PMF) i.e. hiring a ton of engineers, bringing on senior executives, running after key partnerships, etc. These shortcuts never work.
    大多数创始人寻求无效的捷径来实现产品/市场契合度(PMF),即雇用大量工程师,聘请高级管理人员,寻求关键的合作伙伴关系等。这些快捷方式永远不起作用。
  • If you don’t have Product/Market Fit, keep your burn low, and keep iterating fast with a lean team. You may get pressure to spend from your VCs (this usually happens), push back hard — Elizabeth Yin, Co-founder of Hustle Fund.
    如果您没有产品/市场契合度,请保持低消耗,并与精简的团队一起保持快速迭代。你可能会从风险投资公司那里得到花钱的压力(这种情况通常会发生),然后大力反击——Hustle Fund的联合创始人Elizabeth Yin。
  • If you haven’t reached Product/Market Fit, avoid growing your team above 10 people. Post-raising a seed round, most founders are tempted to grow the team. Smaller teams can adapt/iterate much quicker — Immad Akhund, Co-founder & CEO, Mercury.
    如果您尚未达到产品/市场契合度,请避免将您的团队增加到 10 人以上。在筹集种子轮融资后,大多数创始人都想扩大团队。较小的团队可以更快地适应/迭代——Immad Akhund,Mercury 联合创始人兼首席执行官。

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