阿里微博双双IPO 最大受益者是新浪

最新推荐文章于 2022-06-22 10:57:03 发布

多少的悠悠

最新推荐文章于 2022-06-22 10:57:03 发布

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本文链接：https://blog.csdn.net/u014263374/article/details/21737535

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阿里巴巴和微博的价值合理吗？

这个问题也许很难捉摸清楚，但是与阿里巴巴和微博的竞争对手相比，它们所处的市场的价格都很有竞争力。

阿里巴巴的大多数收入和利润都来自于向700万商家出售广告权，去年创造了1630亿美元的交易额。去年第三季度，阿里巴巴的利润率达到了44.6%，获得了7.92亿美元的利润，预计它2014年的净利润将超过35亿美元。

相比之下，eBay去年的净利润为28.6亿美元，目前的市盈率为26倍。如果以26倍市盈率乘以阿里巴巴2014年的预期每股收益，可以得出阿里巴巴的合理市值为910亿美元。虽然这与它IPO发行价对应的市值并不相符，但是它与eBay的成长性是不同的，eBay的年销售额增长率为12%，而阿里巴巴的增长率为50%。股票的溢价率或者说市盈率主要取决于未来的成长性而非目前的成长性。

至于微博，它的年收入为1.88亿美元，IPO发行价对应的市值是其年收入的26.5倍。相比之下，Twitter目前的市盈率为42.5倍。Twitter 2013年的收入增长率为110%，这对于长期坚持价值投资的投资者来说是很有吸引力的，但是微博去年的收入增长了近2倍，利润率也远远超过了Twitter。

两宗能够产生大量现金的IPO

综合各种因素，阿里巴巴和微博蕴含的成长价值暗示这这两只股票很可能会在上市当天大涨。即便上市当天只上涨25%，阿里巴巴和微博的市值也会分别上涨到1500亿美元和62.5亿美元，这对雅虎和新浪来说是非常有利的。

雅虎和新浪将从阿里巴巴和微博的IPO中获得极大的收益，预计这两家公司都将减持股份以分散投资。实际上，如果将这两家公司目前的现金持有量也考虑进来，我们就可以得出如下结论：现金将占到雅虎市值的67.5%和新浪市值的112%。

雅虎和新浪：为未来成长而进行的大举投资

对大多数人来说，由于阿里巴巴和微博IPO之后它们的现金持有量肯定会增加，雅虎和新浪肯定值得买入。但是，也有投资者仍然有些疑问。

雅虎去年的营业利润只有5.9亿美元，这意味着它13.66亿美元的净利润有一大半来自它持有的阿里巴巴股份和日本资产的投资收益。预计雅虎2014年的收入增长率只有1.5%，有人担心雅虎持有的阿里巴巴股份的价值已经完全体现出来了。

新浪的情况更为艰难，其市值中的现金含量将超过100%。但是，新浪上个季度的营收达到了1.97亿美元，增长的5800万美元营收中有4300万美元来自微博业务。这意味着，如果没有微博，新浪营收的年增长率将不会超过10%。

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