大学计算机试题深圳大学,深圳大学期末考试试卷参考答案.doc

深圳大学期末考试试卷参考答案

深圳大学期末考试试卷参考答案

开/闭卷闭卷A/B卷A卷课程编号课程名称物流管理学分3

命题人(签字) 审题人(签字) 2009 年 12月 1 日

题号一二三四五六七八九十基本题总分附加题得分评卷人

Question 1 .

Based upon the following historical data, answer the following questions. (30 points) (基于以下历史数据回答下面的问题。) (30分)

Week(周)Actual Demand(实际需求)Week(周)Actual Demand(实际需求)115525218628320730423833

a. Calculate the simple 3-week moving average forecast for week 4 to week 9. (5 points) (请用3周简单移动平均法预测第4到9周的市场需求。)(5分)

b. Calculate the weighted 3-week moving average using weights of 0.60, 0.30, 0.10 for week 4 to week 9. (5 points) (请用权重分别为0.60, 0.30, 0.10的3周加权移动平均方法预测第4到9周的市场需求。)(5分)

c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecasting for week 2 to week 9 using an initial forecast 15, and an of 0.90. (5 points)(请用初始值为15，预测因子为0.90的简单指数平滑方法预测第2到9周的市场需求。)(5分)

d. Using a simple linear regression analysis, calculate the regression equation for the preceding demand data. (5 points)(请用简单线性回归分析方法，计算上述需求数据的回归方程。)(5分)

e. Using the regression equation got in the previous question, calculate the forecast for week 1 to week 9. (5 points)(请用d中的回归方程，预测第1到9周的市场需求。)(5分)

f. Calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made in week 4 to week 8 for four forecasting methods. Which forecasting method do you prefer? (5 points) (请计算第4到8周需求预测的平均绝对误差。你认为哪一种预测方法更好？)(5分)

1. SolutionsMonth (t)Actual Demand(y)3-month MA(a.Answer)Absolute deviation of MA3-month WMA(b.Answer)Absolute deviation of WMAFt(c.Answer)Absolute deviationt^2y*tForecasting Demand Ft(e.Answer)Absolute deviation115　　　　20.00 　11515.17 　218　　　　15.50 　43617.69 　320　　　　17.75 　96020.21 　42317.67 5.33 18.90 4.10 19.78 3.23 169222.74 0.26 52520.33 4.67 21.60 3.40 22.68 2.32 2512525.26 0.26 62822.67 5.33 23.90 4.10 24.77 3.23 3616827.79 0.21 73025.33 4.67 26.60 3