生日悖论分析python_生日悖论的模拟

引用

Programming: The Birthday Paradox

There's a parlor trick known as the Birthday Paradox where in any group of 23 or more people, chances are more than 50% that some two people have the same birthday. This is counter-intuitive to statistical lay people, but can be proven mathematically. Still, certain lay people have been known to be suspicious of math (but rather trusting of computers), so one thing we can do is gather empirical evidence -- simulate gatherings of people with randomly-assigned birthdays and test how often two people end up with the same birthday. We'd also like to vary the problem a bit to see what effect differently-sized calendars and group sizes have on the result.

Your simulation should work like this:

1.Take from the user two numbers: D, a calendar length (in days), and N, a number of trials.

2.Picks random birthdays for G=2 guests.

3.Test to see if any of the 2 guests share a birthday with another of the 2 guests. If so, the program remembers a "hit."

4.Repeat steps 2 and 3 until the requested number of trials is met.

5.Report the percentage of trials that reported hits, that is, the proportion of simulated parties where the some two guests shared a birthday.

6.Repeat steps 2, 3, 4, and 5 for parties of 3, 4, 5 ... 100 guests.

Test your program on a few calendar lengths, as small as 2 days and as large as 1000 days. If your program works correctly, you should find that the percentage of hits exceeds .5 for N=365 when G=23.

Your program should take the two variables, D and T, on the command line. Be sure to check that they are valid (both should be integers of at least 2).

In your README, answer the following questions (in addition to the usual README content):

1.How did you implement your program? What loops did you use, where, for what purpose? What data structures did you use to store your information?

2.What were your results for D=2, 10, 100, 500, and 1000? Did they match up with your expectations?

3.What happens to your results when you vary the number of trials? How many trials are "enough" for results to converge?

4.Based on your answer to #1, how long does your program take? Give Big-Oh, Omega-Oh, and, if applicable, Theta-Oh terms as a function of D, G and T.

Example Output

$ java BirthdaySim 200 1000

2 guests: [0.0050]: 5 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

3 guests: [0.017]: 17 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

4 guests: [0.024]: 24 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

5 guests: [0.057]: 57 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

6 guests: [0.06]: 60 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

7 guests: [0.09]: 90 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

8 guests: [0.134]: 134 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

9 guests: [0.158]: 158 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

10 guests: [0.213]: 213 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

11 guests: [0.227]: 227 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

12 guests: [0.291]: 291 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

13 guests: [0.322]: 322 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

14 guests: [0.352]: 352 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

15 guests: [0.415]: 415 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

16 guests: [0.454]: 454 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

17 guests: [0.487]: 487 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

18 guests: [0.532]: 532 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

19 guests: [0.595]: 595 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

20 guests: [0.609]: 609 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

21 guests: [0.62]: 620 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

22 guests: [0.664]: 664 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

23 guests: [0.73]: 730 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

24 guests: [0.775]: 775 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

25 guests: [0.807]: 807 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

26 guests: [0.831]: 831 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

27 guests: [0.857]: 857 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

28 guests: [0.855]: 855 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

29 guests: [0.875]: 875 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

30 guests: [0.893]: 893 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

31 guests: [0.927]: 927 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

32 guests: [0.93]: 930 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

33 guests: [0.943]: 943 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

34 guests: [0.963]: 963 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

35 guests: [0.942]: 942 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

36 guests: [0.962]: 962 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

37 guests: [0.972]: 972 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

38 guests: [0.978]: 978 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

39 guests: [0.979]: 979 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

40 guests: [0.982]: 982 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

41 guests: [0.986]: 986 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

42 guests: [0.988]: 988 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

43 guests: [0.996]: 996 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

44 guests: [0.997]: 997 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

45 guests: [0.999]: 999 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

46 guests: [0.995]: 995 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

47 guests: [0.998]: 998 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

48 guests: [0.997]: 997 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

49 guests: [0.998]: 998 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

50 guests: [0.999]: 999 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

51 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

52 guests: [0.998]: 998 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

53 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

54 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

55 guests: [0.999]: 999 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

56 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

57 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

58 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

59 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

60 guests: [0.999]: 999 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

61 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

62 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

63 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

64 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

65 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

66 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

67 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

68 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

69 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

70 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

71 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

72 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

73 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

74 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

75 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

76 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

77 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

78 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

79 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

80 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

81 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

82 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

83 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

84 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

85 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

86 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

87 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

88 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

89 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

90 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

91 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

92 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

93 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

94 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

95 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

96 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

97 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

98 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

99 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

100 guests: [1.0]: 1000 time(s) out of 1000, two guests had the same birthday

BirthdaySim.java:

/*

* BirthdaySim.java

* ver 0.0.0.1, Jan 30, 2008

*/

public class BirthdaySim {

///

// Static fields

///

private static int D;

private static int T;

///

// Constants

///

private static final int MIN_GUESTS = 2;

private static final int MAX_GUESTS = 100;

private static final String USAGE =

"Usage: java BirthdaySim daysOfCalendar numberOfTrials";

///

// Program entry point

///

/**

* @param args Command line parameters.

* Usage: java BirthdaySim daysOfCalendar numberOfTrials

*/

public static void main( String[ ] args ) {

try {

processCommandLine( args );

runTrials( D, T );

} catch ( NumberFormatException nfe ) {

System.err.println( "Invalid number format: " + nfe.getMessage( ) );

usage( );

} catch ( Exception e ) {

System.err.println( e.getMessage( ) );

usage( );

}

}

///

// Helper methods

///

private static void processCommandLine( String[ ] args ) throws Exception {

if ( args.length > 2 )

throw new Exception( "Too many arguments." );

if ( args.length < 2 )

throw new Exception( "Too little arguments." );

D = Integer.parseInt( args[ 0 ] );

T = Integer.parseInt( args[ 1 ] );

}

private static void usage() {

System.out.println( USAGE );

}

static void runTrials( int d, int t ) {

for ( int i = MIN_GUESTS; i <= MAX_GUESTS; ++i ) {

Simulator sim = new Simulator( d, t, i );

System.out.println( sim );

}

}

}

Simulator.java:

/*

* Simulator.java

* ver 0.0.0.1, Jan 30, 2008

*/

import java.util.Arrays;

import java.util.Random;

/**

* Implementation of birthday problem.

*/

public class Simulator {

//

// Private fields

///

private int[ ] guest;

private int daysOfCalendar;

private int numberOfTrials;

private int hitCount;

private boolean isCalculated;

///

// Constructors

///

public Simulator( int daysOfCalendar, int numberOfTrials, int numberOfGuests ) {

this.guest = new int[ numberOfGuests ];

this.daysOfCalendar = daysOfCalendar;

this.numberOfTrials = numberOfTrials;

this.setCalculated( false );

}

///

// Methods

///

protected void initialize( ) {

Random random = new Random( );

// initialize guest array

// Theta(n), where n = this.guest.length (?)

for ( int i = 0; i < this.guest.length; ++i ) {

this.guest[ i ] = random.nextInt( this.getDaysOfCalendar( ) );

}

// sort guest array with Java's tuned quicksort

// implementation in standard library.

// this is an O(n^2) and Omega(n*log(n)) algorithm,

// where n = this.guest.length

Arrays.sort( this.guest );

}

public void runTrials( ) {

this.hitCount = 0;

// run trials for T times

for ( int i = 0; i < this.getNumberOfTrials( ); ++i ) {

this.initialize( );

this.hitCount = ( this.isHit( ) ) ? this.hitCount + 1 : this.hitCount;

}

this.setCalculated( true );

}

private boolean isHit( ) {

int lastNumber = this.guest[ 0 ];

// do a linear search for duplicate occurences

// Theta(n), where n = this.guest.length (?)

for ( int i = 1; i < this.guest.length; ++i ) {

if ( lastNumber == this.guest[ i ] ) {

return true;

} else {

lastNumber = this.guest[ i ];

}

}

return false;

}

///

// Overridden methods

///

@Override

public String toString( ) {

if ( !this.isCalculated( ) ) {

this.runTrials( );

}

StringBuilder sb = new StringBuilder( );

sb.append( this.getNumberOfGuests( ) );

sb.append( " guests: [" );

sb.append( this.getProbability( ) );

sb.append( "]: " );

sb.append( this.getHitCount( ) );

sb.append( " time(s) out of " );

sb.append( this.getNumberOfTrials( ) );

sb.append( ", two guests had the same birthday" );

return sb.toString( );

}

///

// Getter/Setter methods

///

public int getNumberOfGuests( ) {

return this.guest.length;

}

public void setNumberOfGuests( int numberOfGuests ) {

this.guest = new int[ numberOfGuests ];

this.setCalculated( false );

}

public int getDaysOfCalendar( ) {

return this.daysOfCalendar;

}

public void setDaysOfCalendar( int daysOfCalendar ) {

this.daysOfCalendar = daysOfCalendar;

this.setCalculated( false );

}

public int getNumberOfTrials( ) {

return this.numberOfTrials;

}

public void setNumberOfTrials( int numberOfTrials ) {

this.numberOfTrials = numberOfTrials;

this.setCalculated( false );

}

public int getHitCount( ) {

return hitCount;

}

public double getProbability( ) {

if ( !this.isCalculated( ) ) {

this.runTrials( );

}

return this.hitCount / ( double ) this.numberOfTrials;

}

private boolean isCalculated( ) {

return this.isCalculated;

}

private void setCalculated( boolean isCalculated ) {

this.isCalculated = isCalculated;

if ( !this.isCalculated ) {

this.hitCount = -1;

}

}

///

// main, for testing purpose only

///

public static void main( String[ ] args ) {

Simulator sim = new Simulator( 200, 1000, 23 );

System.out.println( sim );

}

}