signature=b0342e45e0600d53e54a263040f69ba5,Modeling the August 2002 minor warming event

本文对比了2002年8月南半球平流层增温和中层降温事件的预测与SABER仪器获取的温度观测结果。预测结果显示了10天内真实的大气演变,同时使用瑞利摩擦来模拟中层重力波阻力,改善了上中层的预测效果。主要中层降温信号的垂直范围与Liu和Roble的模型结果不一致,但与SABER的温度观测相符。通过分析10天预报的3DEP通量向量,发现引发增温/降温事件的行星波源自对流层的局部区域。
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摘要:

1] Hindcasts of the Southern Hemisphere minor stratospheric warming and mesospheric cooling event of August 2002, made with a new high altitude version of the Navy's operational forecast model, are compared with temperatures acquired by SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry). Results show realistic hemispheric evolution of both the stratospheric warming and mesospheric cooling over a 10-day time period. Use of Rayleigh friction to model mesospheric gravity wave drag shows improvement in the upper mesosphere over a hindcast without Rayleigh friction. The limited vertical extent of the main mesospheric cooling signature disagrees with the Liu and Roble (2002) model results but is supported by SABER temperature observations (Siskind et al., 2005). Examination of 3D EP-flux vectors over the 10-day forecast suggests that the planetary wave responsible for the warming/cooling event originated from a horizontally localized region of the troposphere.

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