Kaggle's "Allstate Purchase Prediction Challenge."

该项目旨在预测客户会购买哪种汽车保险选项。数据集包含报价历史和购买历史,面临2304种可能的选项组合。简单的策略是预测客户将购买最后被报价的选项。文章讨论了准确度与随机猜测的对比,并提到了推荐系统、客户终身价值建模、客户保留(流失模型)、欺诈检测和电子商务分析等应用。
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Project paper, code, and presentation slides: https://github.com/justmarkham/kaggle-allstate
Goal : Predict which car insurance options a customer will buy.

Problem:
(1) There are 7 car insurance options, each with 2 to 4 possible values.
(2) Values are identified by number (0,1,2, etc)
(3) “quote” consists of a single combination of those 7 options.
(4) Customers review one or more qutotes before making their purchase.
dataset:
quotes history and purchase history.

diffculty:
there are 2304 possible combinations of options.
no partial credit. no feedback given on which options were wrong.

naive approach:
for each customer, just predict that they will purchase the last set of options they were qutoed.
Accuracy vs random guessing.

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