#AI夏令营 #Datawhale #夏令营
电力需求预测挑战赛
一句话介绍赛题任务可以这样理解赛题:
【训练时序预测模型助力电力需求预测】
电力需求的准确预测对于电网的稳定运行、能源的有效管理以及可再生能源的整合至关重要。
赛题任务
给定多个房屋对应电力消耗历史N天的相关序列数据等信息,预测房屋对应电力的消耗。
赛题数据简介
赛题数据由训练集和测试集组成,为了保证比赛的公平性,将每日日期进行脱敏,用1-N进行标识。
即1为数据集最近一天,其中1-10为测试集数据。
数据集由字段id(房屋id)、 dt(日标识)、type(房屋类型)、target(实际电力消耗)组成。
下面进入baseline代码
In [1]
!pip install lightgbm
Looking in indexes: https://mirror.baidu.com/pypi/simple/, https://mirrors.aliyun.com/pypi/simple/ Requirement already satisfied: lightgbm in /opt/conda/envs/python35-paddle120-env/lib/python3.10/site-packages (4.4.0) Requirement already satisfied: numpy>=1.17.0 in /opt/conda/envs/python35-paddle120-env/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from lightgbm) (1.26.4) Requirement already satisfied: scipy in /opt/conda/envs/python35-paddle120-env/lib/python3.10/site-packages (from lightgbm) (1.14.0)
In [2]
# 1. 导入需要用到的相关库
# 导入 pandas 库,用于数据处理和分析
import pandas as pd
# 导入 numpy 库,用于科学计算和多维数组操作
import numpy as np
# 2. 读取训练集和测试集
# 使用 read_csv() 函数从文件中读取训练集数据,文件名为 'train.csv'
train = pd.read_csv('./data/data283931/train.csv')
# 使用 read_csv() 函数从文件中读取测试集数据,文件名为 'train.csv'
test = pd.read_csv('./data/data283931/test.csv')
# 3. 计算训练数据最近11-20单位时间内对应id的目标均值
target_mean = train[train['dt']<=20].groupby(['id'])['target'].mean().reset_index()
# 4. 将target_mean作为测试集结果进行合并
test = test.merge(target_mean, on=['id'], how='left')
# 5. 保存结果文件到本地
test[['id','dt','target']].to_csv('submit.csv', index=None)
In [3]
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import lightgbm as lgb
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_log_error, mean_absolute_error, mean_squared_error
import tqdm
import sys
import os
import gc
import argparse
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
In [4]
train = pd.read_csv('./data/data283931/train.csv')
test = pd.read_csv('./data/data283931/test.csv')
In [5]
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# 不同type类型对应target的柱状图
type_target_df = train.groupby('type')['target'].mean().reset_index()
plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4))
plt.bar(type_target_df['type'], type_target_df['target'], color=['blue', 'green'])
plt.xlabel('Type')
plt.ylabel('Average Target Value')
plt.title('Bar Chart of Target by Type')
plt.show()
<Figure size 800x400 with 1 Axes>
In [6]
specific_id_df = train[train['id'] == '00037f39cf']
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5))
plt.plot(specific_id_df['dt'], specific_id_df['target'], marker='o', linestyle='-')
plt.xlabel('DateTime')
plt.ylabel('Target Value')
plt.title("Line Chart of Target for ID '00037f39cf'")
plt.show()
<Figure size 1000x500 with 1 Axes>
In [7]
# 合并训练数据和测试数据,并进行排序
data = pd.concat([test, train], axis=0, ignore_index=True)
data = data.sort_values(['id','dt'], ascending=False).reset_index(drop=True)
# 历史平移
for i in range(10,30):
data[f'last{i}_target'] = data.groupby(['id'])['target'].shift(i)
# 窗口统计
data[f'win3_mean_target'] = (data['last10_target'] + data['last11_target'] + data['last12_target']) / 3
# 进行数据切分
train = data[data.target.notnull()].reset_index(drop=True)
test = data[data.target.isnull()].reset_index(drop=True)
# 确定输入特征
train_cols = [f for f in data.columns if f not in ['id','target']]
In [8]
def time_model(lgb, train_df, test_df, cols):
# 训练集和验证集切分
trn_x, trn_y = train_df[train_df.dt>=31][cols], train_df[train_df.dt>=31]['target']
val_x, val_y = train_df[train_df.dt<=30][cols], train_df[train_df.dt<=30]['target']
# 构建模型输入数据
train_matrix = lgb.Dataset(trn_x, label=trn_y)
valid_matrix = lgb.Dataset(val_x, label=val_y)
# lightgbm参数
lgb_params = {
'boosting_type': 'gbdt',
'objective': 'regression',
'metric': 'mse',
'min_child_weight': 5,
'num_leaves': 2 ** 5,
'lambda_l2': 10,
'feature_fraction': 0.8,
'bagging_fraction': 0.8,
'bagging_freq': 4,
'learning_rate': 0.05,
'seed': 2024,
'nthread' : 16,
'verbose' : -1,
}
# 训练模型
model = lgb.train(lgb_params, train_matrix, 50000, valid_sets=[train_matrix, valid_matrix], categorical_feature=[], callbacks=[lgb.early_stopping(500), lgb.log_evaluation(500)])
# 验证集和测试集结果预测
val_pred = model.predict(val_x, num_iteration=model.best_iteration)
test_pred = model.predict(test_df[cols], num_iteration=model.best_iteration)
# 离线分数评估
score = mean_squared_error(val_pred, val_y)
print(score)
return val_pred, test_pred
lgb_oof, lgb_test = time_model(lgb, train, test, train_cols)
# 保存结果文件到本地
test['target'] = lgb_test
test[['id','dt','target']].to_csv('submit.csv', index=None)
Training until validation scores don't improve for 500 rounds [500] training's l2: 181.756 valid_1's l2: 185.824 [1000] training's l2: 170.757 valid_1's l2: 183.919 Early stopping, best iteration is: [956] training's l2: 171.445 valid_1's l2: 183.573 183.5727956268032
最后附加上我的分数截图
个人感悟
本次task2的任务使我深入理解了以下三方面的知识
-
使用数据集绘制柱状图和折线图,
-
使用时间序列数据构建历史平移特征和窗口统计特征,
-
使用lightgbm模型进行训练并预测
从中我体悟到了这么一个道理“数据和特征决定了机器学习的上限,而模型和算法只是逼近这个上限。”