回归预测2：机器学习处理共享单车数据集

我们使用随机森林处理共享单车回归模型，主要包含：数据集划分，建立日期特征，对缺失值进行填补。

1 模型1：baseline

我们只使用最基础的模型，不做任何处理

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from datetime import datetime
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
np.random.seed(123)

1.1 导入数据，划分特征-标签，划分训练集-测试集

data = pd.read_csv("train.csv")
x = data[["season", "holiday", "workingday", "weather", "temp", "atemp","humidity","windspeed"]]
y = data["count"]
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(x, y, 
                                                    train_size=0.7, 
                                                    shuffle=False)

1.2 使用随机森林训练和验证模型

rf = RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators=100)
rf.fit(X_train, y_train)
y_pred = rf.predict(X_test)
print("mse:{}".format(mean_squared_error(y_test, y_pred)))  
## mse:43578.72115559897

2 模型2：增加时间维度特征

在本节，我们从新读取数据，并且将时间维度进行拆分，拆分为：年，月，小时，星期。

2.1 数据读取，特征处理

data = pd.read_csv("train.csv")
data["date"] = data.datetime.apply(lambda x: x.split()[0])
data["hour"] = data.datetime.apply(lambda x: x.split()[1].split(":")[0]).astype("int")
data["year"] = data.datetime.apply(lambda x: x.split()[0].split("-")[0])
data["weekday"] = data.date.apply(lambda dateString: datetime.strptime(dateString, "%Y-%m-%d").weekday())
data["month"] = data.date.apply(lambda dateString: datetime.strptime(dateString, "%Y-%m-%d").month)
x = data[["hour","year","weekday","month","season", "holiday", "workingday", "weather", "temp", "atemp","humidity","windspeed"]]
y = data["count"]
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(x, y, 
                                                    train_size=0.7, 
                                                    shuffle=False)  

2.2 使用随机森林训练和验证模型

rf = RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators=100,random_state=123)
rf.fit(X_train, y_train)
y_pred = rf.predict(X_test)
print("mse:{}".format(mean_squared_error(y_test, y_pred)))
## mse:5866.200720560327

通过结果，我们发现在使用了时间维度特征，效果提升很多。

3 模型3：对weedspeed进行填补

通过数据分析，我们发现weedspeed这一列有好多0值，所以，我们使用算法对其进行插补。我们将数据拆分为训练集、测试集，并且挑选出来一部分特征作为特征值，选出weedspeed这一列作为预测值。

3.1 导入数据，增加时间维度

data = pd.read_csv("train.csv")
data["date"] = data.datetime.apply(lambda x: x.split()[0])
data["hour"] = data.datetime.apply(lambda x: x.split()[1].split(":")[0]).astype("int")
data["year"] = data.datetime.apply(lambda x: x.split()[0].split("-")[0])
data["weekday"] = data.date.apply(lambda dateString: datetime.strptime(dateString, "%Y-%m-%d").weekday())
data["month"] = data.date.apply(lambda dateString: datetime.strptime(dateString, "%Y-%m-%d").month)

3.2 使用随机森林填补windspeed这一列的缺失值

dataWind0 = data[data["windspeed"] == 0]
dataWindNot0 = data[data["windspeed"] != 0]
rfModel_wind = RandomForestRegressor()
windColumns = ["season", "weather", "humidity", "month", "temp", "year", "atemp"]
rfModel_wind.fit(dataWindNot0[windColumns], dataWindNot0["windspeed"])

wind0Values = rfModel_wind.predict(X=dataWind0[windColumns])
dataWind0["windspeed"] = wind0Values
data = dataWindNot0.append(dataWind0)
data.reset_index(inplace=True)
data.drop('index', inplace=True, axis=1)

3.3 拆分数据集

x = data[["hour","year","weekday","month","season", "holiday", "workingday", "weather", "temp", "atemp","humidity","windspeed"]]
y = data["count"]
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(x, y, 
                                                    train_size=0.7, 
                                                    shuffle=False)

3.4 使用随机森林训练和验证模型

rf = RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators=100,random_state=123)
rf.fit(X_train, y_train)
y_pred = rf.predict(X_test)
print("mse:{}".format(mean_squared_error(y_test, y_pred)))
##mse:4048.247575719535

通过实验，我们发现使用缺失值进行填补，可以提升模型的性能。