（翻译）2016美国数学建模MCM D题 翻译:测量协会信息网络的演变和影响

PROBLEM D:Measuring the Evolution and Influence in Society’s Information Networks 

Information is spread quickly in today’s tech-connected communications network; sometimes it is due to the inherent value of the information itself, and other times it is due to the information finding its way to influential or central network nodes that accelerate its spread through social media. While content has varied -- in the 1800s, news was more about local events (e.g., weddings, storms, deaths) rather than viral videos of cats or social lives of entertainers -- the prevailing premise is that this cultural characteristic to share information (both serious and trivial) has always been there. However, the flow of information has never been as easy or wide-ranging as it is today, allowing news of various levels of importance to spread quickly across the globe in our tech connected world. By taking a historical perspective of flow of information relative to inherent value of information, the Institute of Communication Media (ICM) seeks to understand the evolution of the methodology, purpose, and functionality of society’s networks. Specifically, your team, as part of ICM’s Information Analytics Division, has been assigned to analyze the relationship between speed/flow of information vs inherent value of information based on consideration of 5 periods: in the 1870s, when newspapers were delivered by trains and stories were passed by telegraph; in the 1920s, when radios became a more common household item; in the 1970s, when televisions were in most homes; in the 1990s, when households began connecting to the early internet; in the 2010s, when we can carry a connection to the world on our phones. Your supervisor reminds you to be sure to report the assumptions you make and the data you use to build your models.

Your specific tasks are:

(a) Develop one or more model(s) that allow(s) you to explore the flow of information and filter or find what qualifies as news.

(b) Validate your model’s reliability by using data from the past and the prediction capability of your model to predict the information communication situation for today and compare that with today’s reality.

(c) Use your model to predict the communication networks’ relationships and capacities around the year 2050.

(d) Use the theories and concepts of information influence on networks to model how public interest and opinion can be changed through information networks in today’s connected world.

(e) Determine how information value, people’s initial opinion and bias, form of the message or its source, and the topology or strength of the information network in a region, country, or worldwide could be used to spread information and influence public opinion.

Possible Data Sources:

As you develop your model and prepare to test it, you will need to assemble a collection of data. Below are just some examples of the types of data you may find useful in this project. Depending on your exact model, some types of data may be very important and others may be entirely irrelevant. In addition to the sample sources provided below, you might want to consider a few important world events throughout history – if some recent big news events, such as the rumors of country-turned-pop singer Taylor Swift’s possible engagement had instead happened in 1860, what percentage of the population would know about it and how quickly; likewise, if an important person was assassinated today, how would that news spread? How might that compare to the news of US President Abraham Lincoln’s assassination?

Sample Circulation Data and Media Availability:

http://media-cmi.com/downloads/Sixty_Years_Daily_Newspaper_Circulation_Trends_050611.pdf

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8552410.stm

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2006/01/12104731/6

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/427787/are-smart-phones-spreading-faster-than-any-technology-in-human-history/

http://newsroom.fb.com/content/default.aspx?NewsAreaId=22

http://www.poynter.org/news/mediawire/189819/pew-tv-viewing-habit-grays-as-digital-news-consumption-tops-print-radio/

http://www.people-press.org/2012/09/27/section-1-watching-reading-and-listening-to-the-news-3/

http://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-how-does-false-information-spread-online-25567

Historical Perspectives of News and Media:

https://www.quora.com/How-did-news-get-around-the-world-before-the-invention-of-newspapers-and-other-media

http://2012books.lardbucket.org/books/a-primer-on-communication-studies/s15-media-technology-and-communica.html

http://firstmonday.org/article/view/885/794

Richard Campbell, Christopher R. Martin, and Bettina Fabos, Media & Culture: An Introduction to Mass Communication, 5th ed. (Boston, MA: Bedford St. Martin’s, 2007)

Marshall T. Poe, A History of Communications: Media and Society from the Evolution of Speech to the Internet (New York: Cambridge, 2011)

Shirley Biagi, Media/Impact: An Introduction to Mass Media (Boston, MA: Wadsworth, 2007)

Your ICM submission should consist of a 1 page Summary Sheet and your solution cannot exceed 20 pages for a maximum of 21 pages. Note: The appendix and references do not count toward the 20 page limit.

D: 信息迅速传播在今天的技术连接的通信网络;有时是因为信息本身，而其他时间的内在价值则是由于信息找到自己的方式，通过社会化媒体加速它的传播影响力或核心网络节点。虽然内容已经变化 - 在19世纪，新闻是有关本地的事件（例如，婚礼，暴雨，死亡人数），而不是猫或艺人的社会生活的病毒视频 - 当时的前提是，这种文化特色，以信息共享（严重的和琐碎的）是一直存在的。然而，信息的流动从来就不是那么容易或广泛的，因为它是今天，让各级重要的消息在全球范围内迅速蔓延在我们的技术连接的世界。通过采取流程相关信息的历史的角度对信息的内在价值，传播媒体协会（ICM），旨在了解的方法，目的，以及社会网络的功能演进。具体来说，你的团队，为ICM的资料分析部的一部分，已被分配给分析信息VS的信息的基础上考虑的5个周期内在价值的速度/流量之间的关系：在19世纪70年代，当时的报纸是由火车和故事交付通过电报获得通过;在20世纪20年代，当收音机成为一个更常见的家用物品;在20世纪70年代，当电视是大多数家庭;在上世纪90年代，当家庭开始连接到早期的互联网;在2010年代的时候，我们可以继续发展我们的手机走向世界的连接。你的上司提醒您，一定要报告你让你用它来构建模型的假设和数据。

你的具体任务是：

（一）制定一个或多个模型（S），允许（S）你去探索信息和过滤流量或找到有资格成为新闻。

（二）通过使用数据从过去和模型的预测能力来预测今天的信息沟通情况，并比较，与今天的现实验证模型的可靠性。

（c）使用你的模型来预测2050年各地的通信网络“的关系和能力。

（d）利用网络上的理论和信息影响的概念模型如何公众利益和意见可以通过信息网络在当今的互联世界中进行更改。

（五）确定了信息的价值，人的初步意见和偏见，消息或它的源代码形式，以及信息网络的一个地区，国家的拓扑结构或力量，或全球范围内可用于传播信息和影响公众舆论。

可能的数据来源：

当你开发你的模型，并准备对其进行测试，你将需要组装的数据的集合。下面是数据类型只是一些例子，你可能会发现这个项目非常有用。根据您的具体型号，某些类型的数据可能是非常重要的，别人可能完全不相关。除了下面提供的示例源，你可能要在历史上考虑一些重要的世界事件 - 如果最近的一些重大新闻事件，如国家出身的流行歌手泰勒·斯威夫特的可能订婚的谣言，而不是发生在1860年，什么样的人口比例会知道它的速度有多快;同样，如果一个重要的人今天被暗杀，如何将这项消息传出？怎么可能会是比较美国总统林肯遇刺的消息吗？