Quantitative Analysis
Rates and Returns
Components of Interest Rate
- 无风险利率
Nominal Risk-free Interest Rate = Real Risk-free Interest Rate + Inflation Premium \text{Nominal Risk-free Interest Rate} = \text{Real Risk-free Interest Rate} + \text{Inflation Premium} Nominal Risk-free Interest Rate=Real Risk-free Interest Rate+Inflation Premium - 风险资产收益率
Return of Risky Asset = Nominal Risk-free Interest Rate + Risk Premium \text{Return of Risky Asset} = \text{Nominal Risk-free Interest Rate} + \text{Risk Premium} Return of Risky Asset=Nominal Risk-free Interest Rate+Risk Premium Risk Premium = Default premium + Liquidity premium + Maturity premium \text{Risk Premium} = \text{Default premium} + \text{Liquidity premium} + \text{Maturity premium} Risk Premium=Default premium+Liquidity premium+Maturity premium
Mean
- 算术平均 Arithmetic Mean
μ = ∑ i = 1 N X i N \mu=\dfrac{\sum\limits_{i=1}^NX_i}{N} μ=Ni=1∑NXi X ‾ = ∑ i = 1 n X i n \overline{X}=\dfrac{\sum\limits_{i=1}^nX_i}{n} X=ni=1∑nXi - 几何平均 Geometric Mean
G = X 1 X 2 X 3 ⋯ X n n G = \sqrt[n]{X_1X_2X_3\cdots X_n} G=nX1X2X3⋯Xn Periodic Return compound = ( 1 + R 1 ) ( 1 + R 2 ) ⋯ ( 1 + R n ) n − 1 \text{Periodic Return}_{\text{compound}}=\sqrt[n]{(1+R_1)(1+R_2)\cdots(1+R_n)}-1 Periodic Returncompound=n(1+R1)(1+R2)⋯(1+Rn)−1 - 调和平均 Harmonic Mean
X ‾ Harmonic = N ∑ i = 1 N 1 X i \overline{X}_{\text{Harmonic}}=\dfrac{N}{\sum\limits_{i=1}^N\frac{1}{X_i}} XHarmonic=i=1∑NXi1N - 加权平均 Weighted Mean
X ‾ W = ∑ i = 1 n w i X i \overline{X}_W=\sum\limits_{i=1}^nw_iX_i XW=i=1∑nwiXi - 大小关系
Harmonic Mean ≤ Geometric Mean ≤ Arithmetic Mean \text{Harmonic Mean}\le\text{Geometric Mean}\le\text{Arithmetic Mean} Harmonic Mean≤Geometric Mean≤Arithmetic Mean
Measurements of Return
- 持有期收益率 Holding period return
R = P T + D T P 0 − 1 R=\frac{P_T+D_T}{P_0}-1 R=P0PT+DT−1- P 0 P_0 P0:资产期初价格
- P T P_T PT:资产期末价格
- D T D_T DT:股息(或者其他收入)
- 算数平均收益率 Arithmetic return
R = R 1 + R 2 + ⋯ + R n n R=\frac{R_1+R_2+\cdots+R_n}{n} R=nR1+R2+⋯+Rn- R 1 , R 2 , ⋯ , R n R_1,R_2,\cdots,R_n R1,R2,⋯,Rn:每期持有期收益率
- n n n:投资期限
- 时间加权平均收益率 Time-weighted return (TWR)
T W R = [ ( 1 + H P R 1 ) ( 1 + H P R 2 ) ⋯ ( 1 + H P R n ) ] 1 N − 1 TWR=[(1+HPR_1)(1+HPR_2)\cdots(1+HPR_n)]^{\frac{1}{N}}-1 TWR=[(1+HPR1)(1+HPR2)⋯(1+HPRn)]N1−1- H P R 1 , H P R 2 , ⋯ , H P R n HPR_1,HPR_2,\cdots,HPR_n HPR1,HPR2,⋯,HPRn:每期持有期收益率
- N N N:年数
- 货币加权收益率 Money-weighted return (MWR)
C F 0 + C F 1 ( 1 + M W R ) 1 + ⋯ + C F n ( 1 + M W R ) n = 0 CF_0+\frac{CF_1}{(1+MWR)^1}+\cdots+\frac{CF_n}{(1+MWR)^n}=0 CF0+(1+MWR)1CF1+⋯+(1+MWR)nCFn=0- C F 1 , ⋯ , C F n CF_1,\cdots,CF_n CF1,⋯,CFn:每期的现金流
Conversion of Present Value and Future Value
- 终值 Future Value (FV)
F V = P V ⋅ ( 1 + r m ) n ⋅ m FV=PV\cdot(1+\frac{r}{m})^{n\cdot m} FV=PV⋅(1+mr)n⋅m- n n n:年数
Annualizing Returns
- 年化回报率 Annualizing Returns
R annual = ( 1 + R period ) C − 1 R_{\text{annual}}=(1+R_{\text{period}})^C-1 Rannual=(1+Rperiod)C−1 R annual = ( 1 + R semiannual ) 2 − 1 R_{\text{annual}}=(1+R_{\text{semiannual}})^2-1 Rannual=(1+Rsemiannual)2−1 R annual = ( 1 + R quarter ) 4 − 1 R_{\text{annual}}=(1+R_{\text{quarter}})^4-1 Rannual=(1+Rquarter)4−1 R annual = ( 1 + R month ) 12 − 1 R_{\text{annual}}=(1+R_{\text{month}})^{12}-1 Rannual=(1+Rmonth)12−1 R annual = ( 1 + R week ) 52 − 1 R_{\text{annual}}=(1+R_{\text{week}})^{52}-1 Rannual=(1+Rweek)52−1
Leveraged Return
- 杠杆回报 Leveraged Return
R L = Return Portfolio Equity = ( V E + V B ) ⋅ R P − V B ⋅ r D V E = R P + V B V E ( R P − r D ) R_L=\frac{\text{Return}}{\text{Portfolio Equity}}=\frac{(V_E+V_B)\cdot R_P-V_B\cdot r_D}{V_E}=R_P+\frac{V_B}{V_E}(R_P-r_D) RL=Portfolio EquityReturn=VE(VE+VB)⋅RP−VB⋅rD=RP+VEVB(RP−rD)
The Time Value of Money in Finance
Discounted cash flow model
- 现金流模型 DCF
V 0 = ∑ i = 1 + ∞ C F i ( 1 + r ) i V_0=\sum\limits_{i=1}^{+\infty}\frac{CF_i}{(1+r)^i} V0=i=1∑+∞(1+r)iCFi- C F i CF_i CFi:第 i i i期现金流
Annuity Instruments
- 永续年金 Perpetuity Annuity
A = P V ⋅ r 1 − ( 1 + r ) − t A=\frac{PV\cdot r}{1-(1+r)^{-t}} A=1−(1+r)−tPV⋅r- A A A:每期的金额
- r r r:每期利率
- t t t:总共期数
- P V PV PV:债券的现值
Dividend discount model
- 优先股股利折现模型
V 0 = D r V_0=\frac{D}{r} V0=rD- D D D:优先股股利
- 戈登股利增长模型 GGM
V 0 = D 1 r − g = D 0 ( 1 + g ) r − g V_0=\frac{D_1}{r-g}=\frac{D_0(1+g)}{r-g} V0=r−gD1=r−gD0(1+g) r = D 1 V 0 + g r=\frac{D_1}{V_0}+g r=V0D1+g g = r − D 1 V 0 g=r-\frac{D_1}{V_0} g=r−V0D1- r r r:折现率
- g g g:股利固定增长率
- D 0 D_0 D0:股票在0时刻派发的股利
- 两阶段股利折现模型 Two-stage DDM
V 0 = ∑ i = 1 N D 0 ( 1 + g S ) i ( 1 + r ) i + P N ( 1 + r ) N V_0=\sum\limits_{i=1}^N\frac{D_0(1+g_S)^i}{(1+r)^i}+\frac{P_N}{(1+r)^N} V0=i=1∑N(1+r)iD0(1+gS)i+(1+r)NPN P N = D N + 1 r − g L P_N=\frac{D_{N+1}}{r-g_L} PN=r−gLDN+1- g S g_S gS:短期高速股利增长率
- g L g_L gL:长期低速股利增长率
- D N + 1 D_{N+1} DN+1:第 N + 1 N+1 N+1期期末股利
Price-to-Earnings ratio
- 市盈率指标 Price-to-Earnings ratio
PE ratio = 每股股价 p 每股盈利 earnings per share (EPS) = 总市值 净利润总额 \text{PE ratio}=\frac{\text{每股股价 p}}{\text{每股盈利 earnings per share (EPS)}}=\frac{\text{总市值}}{\text{净利润总额}} PE ratio=每股盈利 earnings per share (EPS)每股股价 p=净利润总额总市值 - 静态市盈率 Trailing P/E
P E = P 0 E P S 0 \frac{P}{E}=\frac{P_0}{EPS_0} EP=EPS0P0 - 动态市盈率 Leading (forward) P/E
P E = P 0 E P S 1 \frac{P}{E}=\frac{P_0}{EPS_1} EP=EPS1P0 - 合理静态市盈率 Justified trailing P/E
P E = V 0 E 0 = D 1 r − g E 0 = D 1 E 0 r − g = D 0 ⋅ 1 + g E 0 r − g = D 0 E 0 r − g ⋅ ( 1 + g ) \frac{P}{E}=\frac{V_0}{E_0}=\dfrac{\frac{D_1}{r-g}}{E_0}=\dfrac{\frac{D_1}{E_0}}{r-g}=\dfrac{D_0\cdot\frac{1+g}{E_0}}{r-g}=\dfrac{\frac{D_0}{E_0}}{r-g}\cdot(1+g) EP=E0V0=E0r−gD1=r−gE0D1=r−gD0⋅E01+g=r−gE0D0⋅(1+g)- E 1 E_1 E1:第1期每股收益
- D 0 E 0 \frac{D_0}{E_0} E0D0:股利支付率
- 合理动态市盈率 Justified leading P/E
P E = V 0 E 1 = D 1 r − g E 1 = D 1 E 1 r − g \frac{P}{E}=\frac{V_0}{E_1}=\dfrac{\frac{D_1}{r-g}}{E_1}=\dfrac{\frac{D_1}{E_1}}{r-g} EP=E1V0=E1r−gD1=r−gE1D1- E 1 E_1 E1:第1期每股收益
- D 1 E 1 \frac{D_1}{E_1} E1D1:股利支付率
Forward rate
- 远期利率 Forward rate
( 1 + r n ) n = ( 1 + r m ) m ⋅ ( 1 + F n − m ) n − m (1+r_n)^n=(1+r_m)^m\cdot(1+F_{n-m})^{n-m} (1+rn)n=(1+rm)m⋅(1+Fn−m)n−m- r m r_m rm和 r n r_n rn分别是 m m m年和 n n n年的即期利率
- F n − m F_{n-m} Fn−m是 n − m n-m n−m年的远期利率
Forward exchange rate
- 离散复利下利率平价公式 Discrete Interest rate parity
F A / B S A / B = ( 1 + r A ) n ( 1 + r B ) n \frac{F_{A/B}}{S_{A/B}}=\frac{(1+r_A)^n}{(1+r_B)^n} SA/BFA/B=(1+rB)n(1+rA)n - 连续复利下利率平价公式 Continuous Interest rate parity
F A / B S A / B = e r A ⋅ n e r B ⋅ n = e ( r A − r B ) ⋅ n \frac{F_{A/B}}{S_{A/B}}=\frac{e^{r_A\cdot n}}{e^{r_B\cdot n}}=e^{(r_A-r_B)\cdot n} SA/BFA/B=erB⋅nerA⋅n=e(rA−rB)⋅n- F A / B F_{A/B} FA/B:远期汇率
- S A / B S_{A/B} SA/B:即期汇率
- r A r_A rA:A国无风险利率
- r B r_B rB:B国无风险利率
Statistical Measures of Asset Returns
Central Tendency
- 总体算术平均数
μ = ∑ i = 1 N X i N \mu=\frac{\sum\limits_{i=1}^NX_i}{N} μ=Ni=1∑NXi - 样本算术平均数
X ‾ = ∑ i = 1 n X i n \overline{X}=\frac{\sum\limits_{i=1}^nX_i}{n} X=ni=1∑nXi - 中位数(n为奇数)
中位数 = n + 1 2 位置的数 \text{中位数}=\frac{n+1}{2}\text{位置的数} 中位数=2n+1位置的数 - 中位数(n为偶数)
中位数 = n 2 与 n + 2 2 两个位置上的数的平均值 \text{中位数}=\frac{n}{2}\text{与}\frac{n+2}{2}\text{两个位置上的数的平均值} 中位数=2n与2n+2两个位置上的数的平均值 - 分位数位置
L y = ( n + 1 ) ( y % ) L_y=(n+1)(y\%) Ly=(n+1)(y%)
Absolute Dispersion
- 极差 Range
Range = Maximum Value − Minimum Value \text{Range}=\text{Maximum Value}-\text{Minimum Value} Range=Maximum Value−Minimum Value - 平均绝对偏离度 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
M A D = ∑ i = 1 n ( X i − X ‾ ) n MAD=\frac{\sum\limits_{i=1}^n(X_i-\overline{X})}{n} MAD=ni=1∑n(Xi−X)- X ‾ \overline{X} X:样本均值
- n n n:观测值个数
- 目标下行标准差 Target Downside Deviation
s Target = ∑ for all X i ≤ B n ( X i − B ) 2 n − 1 s_{\text{Target}}=\sqrt{\sum\limits_{\text{for all } X_i\le B}^n\frac{(X_i-B)^2}{n-1}} sTarget=for all Xi≤B∑nn−1(Xi−B)2- B B B:目标值
- n n n:样本量
- 总体标准差 Population Standard Deviation
σ = ∑ i = 1 N ( X i − μ ) 2 N \sigma=\sqrt{\frac{\sum\limits_{i=1}^N(X_i-\mu)^2}{N}} σ=Ni=1∑N(Xi−μ)2- μ \mu μ:总体均值
- N N N:总体大小
- 样本标准差 Sample Standard Deviation
s = ∑ i = 1 n ( X i − X ‾ ) 2 n − 1 s=\sqrt{\frac{\sum\limits_{i=1}^n(X_i-\overline{X})^2}{n-1}} s=n−1i=1∑n(Xi−X)2- X ‾ \overline{X} X:样本均值
- n n n:样本量
Relative Dispersion
- 变异系数 Coefficient of Variance
C V = s X ‾ CV=\frac{s}{\overline{X}} CV=Xs- s s s:样本标准差
- X ‾ \overline{X} X:样本均值
- 夏普系数 Sharpe Ratio
S R = R P − R f σ P SR=\frac{R_P-R_f}{\sigma_P} SR=σPRP−Rf- R P R_P RP:组合收益率
- R f R_f Rf:无风险收益率
- σ P \sigma_P σP:组合收益率标准差
Covariance and Correlation
- 协方差 Covariance
C o v ( R A , R B ) = ∑ i = 1 n ∑ j = 1 n P ( R A , i , R B , j ) [ R A , i − E ( R A ) ] [ R B , j − E ( R B ) ] Cov(R_A,R_B)=\sum\limits_{i=1}^n\sum\limits_{j=1}^nP(R_{A,i},R_{B,j})[R_{A,i}-E(R_A)][R_{B,j}-E(R_B)] Cov(RA,RB)=i=1∑nj=1∑nP(RA,i,RB,j)[RA,i−E(RA)][RB,j−E(RB)]- C o v ( R A , R B ) ∈ ( − ∞ , + ∞ ) Cov(R_A,R_B)\in(-\infty,+\infty) Cov(RA,RB)∈(−∞,+∞):若协方差>0,表示两个变量有同向变动的趋势;若协方差<0,表示两个变量有反向变动的趋势
- 相关系数 Correlation
ρ i , j = C o v ( R i , R j ) σ i σ j , r = C o v ( R i , R j ) s i s j \rho_{i,j}=\frac{Cov(R_i,R_j)}{\sigma_i\sigma_j},\ r=\frac{Cov(R_i,R_j)}{s_is_j} ρi,j=σiσjCov(Ri,Rj), r=sisjCov(Ri,Rj)- ρ i , j ∈ [ − 1 , 1 ] \rho_{i,j}\in[-1,1] ρi,j∈[−1,1]
- ρ i , j = 1 \rho_{i,j}=1 ρi,j=1, R i R_i Ri和 R j R_j Rj完全线性正相关
- ρ i , j = − 1 \rho_{i,j}=-1 ρi,j=−1, R i R_i Ri和 R j R_j Rj完全线性负相关
- ρ i , j = 0 \rho_{i,j}=0 ρi,j=0, R i R_i Ri和 R j R_j Rj无线性关系
Probability Trees and Conditional Expectations
Probability
- 事件发生的概率 The Probability of Event E
0 ≤ P ( E ) ≤ 1 0\le P(E)\le1 0≤P(E)≤1 - 随机变量的期望值 Expected value
E ( X ) = ∑ i = 1 N P ( X i ) X i E(X)=\sum\limits_{i=1}^NP(X_i)X_i E(X)=i=1∑NP(Xi)Xi - 随机变量的方差 Variance
σ 2 ( X ) = P ( X 1 ) [ X 1 − E ( X 1 ) ] 2 + ⋯ + P ( X N ) [ X N − E ( X N ) ] 2 = E [ X − E ( X ) ] 2 \sigma^2(X)=P(X_1)[X_1-E(X_1)]^2+\cdots+P(X_N)[X_N-E(X_N)]^2=E[X-E(X)]^2 σ2(X)=P(X1)[X1−E(X1)]2+⋯+P(XN)[XN−E(XN)]2=E[X−E(X)]2 - 乘法法则 Multiplication Rule
P ( A B ) = P ( A ∣ B ) P ( B ) P(AB)=P(A|B)P(B) P(AB)=P(A∣B)P(B) - 独立事件的联合概率 Joint Probability of Independence Events
P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( A ) P(A|B)=P(A) P(A∣B)=P(A) P ( A B ) = P ( A ) P ( B ) P(AB)=P(A)P(B) P(AB)=P(A)P(B) - 全概率公式 Total Probability Rule
P ( A ) = P ( A ∣ S 1 ) P ( S 1 ) + ⋯ + P ( A ∣ S n ) P ( S n ) P(A)=P(A|S_1)P(S_1)+\cdots+P(A|S_n)P(S_n) P(A)=P(A∣S1)P(S1)+⋯+P(A∣Sn)P(Sn)- S 1 , S 2 , ⋯ , S n S_1,S_2,\cdots,S_n S1,S2,⋯,Sn互斥且遍历
- 贝叶斯公式 Bayes’ Formula
P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( B ∣ A ) P ( A ) P ( B ∣ A ) P ( A ) + P ( B ∣ A ‾ ) P ( A ‾ ) P(A|B)=\frac{P(B|A)P(A)}{P(B|A)P(A)+P(B|\overline{A})P(\overline{A})} P(A∣B)=P(B∣A)P(A)+P(B∣A)P(A)P(B∣A)P(A) - 期望的全概率公式 Total Probability Rule for Expected Value
E ( X ) = ∑ i = 1 n E ( X ∣ S i ) P ( S i ) E(X)=\sum\limits_{i=1}^nE(X|S_i)P(S_i) E(X)=i=1∑nE(X∣Si)P(Si)- E ( X ∣ S n ) E(X|S_n) E(X∣Sn): S n S_n Sn发生的情况下 X X X的期望值
- S 1 , S 2 , ⋯ , S n S_1,S_2,\cdots,S_n S1,S2,⋯,Sn互斥且遍历
Portfolio Mathematics
Continuous Distribution
- 正态分布标准化 Standardization
Z = X − μ σ Z=\frac{X-\mu}{\sigma} Z=σX−μ- X X X:样本观测值,服从正态分布
- μ \mu μ:正态分布均值
- σ \sigma σ:正态分布标准差
Safety-first Ratio
- 完全第一比率 Safety-first Ratio
SFRatio = E ( R P ) − R L σ P \text{SFRatio}=\frac{E(R_P)-R_L}{\sigma_P} SFRatio=σPE(RP)−RL- R L R_L RL:shortfall level
- E ( R P ) E(R_P) E(RP):组合预期收益率
- σ P \sigma_P σP:组合收益率标准差
Simulation Methods
Continuously Compounded Rate of Return
- 连续复利下的回报率 Continuously Compounded Rate of Return
P T = P 0 ⋅ e r 0 , T P_T=P_0\cdot e^{r_{0,T}} PT=P0⋅er0,T r 0 , T = ln ( P T P 0 ) r_{0,T}=\ln(\frac{P_T}{P_0}) r0,T=ln(P0PT)
Estimation and Inference
Standard Error
- 样本均值的标准误 Standard Error of Sample Mean
σ X ‾ = σ n \sigma_{\overline{X}}=\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} σX=nσ- 总体标准差
σ
\sigma
σ已知
s X ‾ = s n s_{\overline{X}}=\frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} sX=ns - 总体标准差 σ \sigma σ未知
- 总体标准差
σ
\sigma
σ已知
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis Testing Statistic
- 单个均值检验统计量(总体方差已知)
Z = X ‾ − μ 0 σ / n Z=\frac{\overline{X}-\mu_0}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}} Z=σ/nX−μ0- Z Z Z: z z z检验统计量
- X ‾ \overline{X} X:样本均值
- μ 0 \mu_0 μ0:假设的总体均值
- σ \sigma σ:总体标准差
- 单个均值检验统计量(总体方差未知)
t n − 1 = X ‾ − μ 0 S / n t_{n-1}=\frac{\overline{X}-\mu_0}{S/\sqrt{n}} tn−1=S/nX−μ0- t n − 1 t_{n-1} tn−1: t t t检验统计量
- X ‾ \overline{X} X:样本均值
- μ 0 \mu_0 μ0:假设的总体均值
- S S S:样本标准差
Parametricand Non-Parametric Tests of Independence
Parametric Test of a Correlation
- 相关系数的参数检验统计量
t n − 2 = r n − 2 1 − r 2 t_{n-2}=\frac{r\sqrt{n-2}}{\sqrt{1-r^2}} tn−2=1−r2rn−2- t n − 2 t_{n-2} tn−2: t t t检验统计量
- r r r:样本相关系数
- n n n:样本量
Introduction to Linear Regression
Least Squares Criterion
- 斜率系数项估计量
b ^ 1 = C o v ( X , Y ) V a r ( X ) \hat{b}_1=\frac{Cov(X,Y)}{Var(X)} b^1=Var(X)Cov(X,Y)- b ^ 1 \hat{b}_1 b^1:斜率系数项估计量
- C o v ( X , Y ) Cov(X,Y) Cov(X,Y): X X X和 Y Y Y的协方差
- V a r ( X ) Var(X) Var(X): X X X的方差
- 截距项估计量
b ^ 0 = Y ‾ − b ^ 1 X ‾ \hat{b}_0=\overline{Y}-\hat{b}_1\overline{X} b^0=Y−b^1X- X ‾ \overline{X} X:自变量的样本均值
- Y ‾ \overline{Y} Y:因变量的样本均值
Test of Slope Coefficient
- t 检验统计量 t Statistic
t = b ^ 1 s b ^ 1 t=\frac{\hat{b}_1}{s_{\hat{b}_1}} t=sb^1b^1- s b ^ 1 s_{\hat{b}_1} sb^1:斜率系数估计量的标准差
Analysis of Variance
- 平方和 Sum of Squares
S S T = S S R + S S E SST=SSR+SSE SST=SSR+SSE- SST:总和平方和
- SSR:回归平方和
- SSE:残差平方和
- 可决系数 Coefficient of Determination
R 2 = S S R S S T = r 2 R^2=\frac{SSR}{SST}=r^2 R2=SSTSSR=r2- r r r:自变量与因变量的相关系数
- 估计的标准误 Standard Error of the Estimate
s e = ∑ i = 1 n ( Y i − Y i ^ ) 2 n − 2 s_{e}=\sqrt{\frac{\sum\limits_{i=1}^n(Y_i-\hat{Y_i})^2}{n-2}} se=n−2i=1∑n(Yi−Yi^)2- Y i Y_i Yi:第 i i i个因变量
- Y i ^ \hat{Y_i} Yi^:第 i i i个因变量的估计量
- n n n:样本量
F Statistic
- F 检验统计量
F = M S R M S E = S S R / 1 S S E / ( n − 2 ) F=\frac{MSR}{MSE}=\frac{SSR/1}{SSE/(n-2)} F=MSEMSR=SSE/(n−2)SSR/1- MSR:均方回归
- MSE:均方误
- SSR:回归平方和
- SSE:残差平方和
- n n n:样本量
Prediction Interval for Dependent Variable
- 因变量的预测区间
Y ^ f ± t e ⋅ s f \hat{Y}_f\pm t_e\cdot s_f Y^f±te⋅sf- Y ^ f \hat{Y}_f Y^f:因变量的预测值
- t e t_e te:t检验统计量的关键值
- s f s_f sf:预测标准误
Economics
Topics in Demand and Supply Analysis
Elasticity of Demand
- 价格弹性 Own-price elasticity of demand
E P X d = % Δ Q X d % Δ P X = Δ Q X d Q X d Δ P X P X = Δ Q X d Δ P X ⋅ P X Q X d E_{P_X}^d=\frac{\%\Delta Q_{X}^d}{\%\Delta P_{X}}=\dfrac{\frac{\Delta Q_{X}^d}{Q_X^d}}{\frac{\Delta P_X}{P_X}}=\frac{\Delta Q_X^d}{\Delta P_X}\cdot\frac{P_X}{Q_X^d} EPXd=%ΔPX%ΔQXd=PXΔPXQXdΔQXd=ΔPXΔQXd⋅QXdPX- P X P_X PX:商品X的价格
- 交叉价格弹性 Cross-price elasticity of demand
E P Y d = % Δ Q X d % Δ P Y = Δ Q X d Q X d Δ P Y P Y = Δ Q X d Δ P Y ⋅ P Y Q X d E_{P_Y}^d=\frac{\%\Delta Q_{X}^d}{\%\Delta P_{Y}}=\dfrac{\frac{\Delta Q_{X}^d}{Q_X^d}}{\frac{\Delta P_Y}{P_Y}}=\frac{\Delta Q_X^d}{\Delta P_Y}\cdot\frac{P_Y}{Q_X^d} EPYd=%ΔPY%ΔQXd=PYΔPYQXdΔQXd=ΔPYΔQXd⋅QXdPY- P Y P_Y PY:商品Y的价格
- 收入弹性 Income elasticity of demand
E I d = % Δ Q X d % Δ I = Δ Q X d Q X d Δ I I = Δ Q X d Δ I ⋅ I Q X d E_{I}^d=\frac{\%\Delta Q_{X}^d}{\%\Delta I}=\dfrac{\frac{\Delta Q_{X}^d}{Q_X^d}}{\frac{\Delta I}{I}}=\frac{\Delta Q_X^d}{\Delta I}\cdot\frac{I}{Q_X^d} EId=%ΔI%ΔQXd=IΔIQXdΔQXd=ΔIΔQXd⋅QXdI- I I I:消费者收入
Revenue
- 总收入 Total revenue, TR
T R = P ⋅ Q TR=P\cdot Q TR=P⋅Q - 平均收入 Average revenue, AR
A R = T R Q AR=\frac{TR}{Q} AR=QTR - 边际收入 Marginal revenue, MR
M R = Δ T R Δ Q = P [ 1 − 1 ∣ E P ∣ ] MR=\frac{\Delta TR}{\Delta Q}=P\Big[1-\frac{1}{|E_{P}|}\Big] MR=ΔQΔTR=P[1−∣EP∣1]- E P E_P EP:需求价格弹性
Cost
- 总成本 Total cost, TC
T C = T V C + T F C TC=TVC+TFC TC=TVC+TFC - 平均固定成本 Average fixed cost, AFC
A F C = T F C Q AFC=\frac{TFC}{Q} AFC=QTFC - 平均可变成本 Average variable cost, AVC
A V C = T V C Q AVC=\frac{TVC}{Q} AVC=QTVC - 边际成本 Marginal cost, MC
M C = Δ T C Δ Q MC=\frac{\Delta TC}{\Delta Q} MC=ΔQΔTC
Aggregate Output, Prices, and Economic Growth
GDP deflator
- GDP 平减指数
GDP deflator = Nominal GDP Real GDP ⋅ 100 % \text{GDP deflator}=\frac{\text{Nominal GDP}}{\text{Real GDP}}\cdot100\% GDP deflator=Real GDPNominal GDP⋅100%
GDP calculation
- 支出法 Expenditure approach
G D P = C + I + G + ( X − M ) = C + I + G + N X GDP=C+I+G+(X-M)=C+I+G+NX GDP=C+I+G+(X−M)=C+I+G+NX- C C C:私人部门消费
- I I I:国内私人部门投资
- G G G:政府部门支出
- X − M , N X X-M,\ NX X−M, NX:净出口
- 收入法 Income approach
G D P = C + S + T GDP=C+S+T GDP=C+S+T- S S S:私人部门储蓄
- T T T:政府税收
Quantity theory of money
- 货币数量论 Quantity theory of money
M V = P Y MV=PY MV=PY- M M M:名义货币供给
- V V V:货币流通速度
- P P P:平均价格水平
- Y Y Y:实际收入/支出
The production function
- 生产函数 Production function
Y = A f ( L , K ) Y=Af(L,K) Y=Af(L,K)- A A A:全要素生产率(技术水平)
Growth in potential GDP
- Growth in potential GDP
Growth in potential GDP = Growth in technology + W L ⋅ ( Growth in labor ) + W C ⋅ ( Growth in capital ) \text{Growth in potential GDP}=\text{Growth in technology}+W_L\cdot(\text{Growth in labor})+W_C\cdot(\text{Growth in capital}) Growth in potential GDP=Growth in technology+WL⋅(Growth in labor)+WC⋅(Growth in capital) = Long-term growth rate of labor force + Long-term labor productivity growth rate =\text{Long-term growth rate of labor force}+\text{Long-term labor productivity growth rate} =Long-term growth rate of labor force+Long-term labor productivity growth rate
Growth in per capita potential GDP
- Growth in per capita potential GDP
Growth in per capita potential GDP = Growth in technology + W C ⋅ ( Growth in capital-to-labor ratio ) \text{Growth in per capita potential GDP}=\text{Growth in technology}+W_C\cdot(\text{Growth in capital-to-labor ratio}) Growth in per capita potential GDP=Growth in technology+WC⋅(Growth in capital-to-labor ratio)
Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Fisher effect
- 费雪效应
r nom = r real + expected inflation = r real + π e r_{\text{nom}}=r_{\text{real}}+\text{expected inflation}=r_{\text{real}}+\pi_e rnom=rreal+expected inflation=rreal+πe
Money multiplier
- 货币乘数
Money multiplier = 1 Reserve requirement \text{Money multiplier}=\frac{1}{\text{Reserve requirement}} Money multiplier=Reserve requirement1 Money created = New deposit ⋅ Money multiplier = New deposit Reserve requirement \text{Money created}=\text{New deposit}\cdot\text{Money multiplier}=\frac{\text{New deposit}}{\text{Reserve requirement}} Money created=New deposit⋅Money multiplier=Reserve requirementNew deposit
Understanding Business Cycles
Unemployment rate
- 失业率
Unemployment rate = Number of Unemployed labor force \text{Unemployment rate}=\frac{\text{Number of Unemployed}}{\text{labor force}} Unemployment rate=labor forceNumber of Unemployed
Participation ratio
- 劳动力参与率
Participation ratio = labor force Working age population \text{Participation ratio}=\frac{\text{labor force}}{\text{Working age population}} Participation ratio=Working age populationlabor force
Fiscal Policy
Fiscal multiplier
- 忽略所得税 Ignoring income taxes
Fiscal multiplier = 1 1 − c \text{Fiscal multiplier}=\frac{1}{1-c} Fiscal multiplier=1−c1- c c c:边际消费倾向 (Marginal propensity to consume)
- 考虑所得税 Including income taxes
Fiscal multiplier = 1 1 − c ( 1 − t ) \text{Fiscal multiplier}=\frac{1}{1-c(1-t)} Fiscal multiplier=1−c(1−t)1- t t t:净税率 (Net tax rate)
Capital Flows and the FX Market
Real exchange rate
- 实际汇率
Real d / f = Nominal d / f ⋅ P f P d \text{Real}_{d/f}=\text{Nominal}_{d/f}\cdot\frac{P_f}{P_d} Reald/f=Nominald/f⋅PdPf- Real d / f \text{Real}_{d/f} Reald/f:实际汇率
- Nominal d / f \text{Nominal}_{d/f} Nominald/f:名义汇率
- P f P_f Pf:外国物价水平
- P d P_d Pd:本国物价水平
Currency Exchange Rates
Interest rate parity
- 利率平价
F forward ( D / F ) S spot ( D / F ) = 1 + r D C 1 + r F C \frac{F_{\text{forward}(D/F)}}{S_{\text{spot}(D/F)}}=\frac{1+r_{DC}}{1+r_{FC}} Sspot(D/F)Fforward(D/F)=1+rFC1+rDC- F forward ( D / F ) F_{\text{forward}(D/F)} Fforward(D/F):远期汇率
- S spot ( D / F ) S_{\text{spot}(D/F)} Sspot(D/F):即期汇率
- r D C r_{DC} rDC:本国无风险利率
-
r
F
C
r_{FC}
rFC:外国无风险利率
F − S S = 1 + r x 1 + r y − 1 = r x − r y 1 + r y ≈ r x − r y \frac{F-S}{S}=\frac{1+r_x}{1+r_y}-1=\frac{r_x-r_y}{1+r_y}\approx r_x-r_y SF−S=1+ry1+rx−1=1+ryrx−ry≈rx−ry - F F F:远期汇率
- S S S:即期汇率
- r x r_x rx:x国无风险利率
- r y r_y ry:y国无风险利率
Financial Statement Analysis
Analyzing Income Statements
ROE
- 股东回报率 Return on Equity
ROE = Net Income Shareholder’s Equity \text{ROE}=\frac{\text{Net Income}}{\text{Shareholder's Equity}} ROE=Shareholder’s EquityNet Income
EPS
- 基础每股收益 Basic EPS
Basic EPS = Net Income − Preferred dividends Weighted average number of shares outstanding \text{Basic EPS}=\frac{\text{Net Income}-\text{Preferred dividends}}{\text{Weighted average number of shares outstanding}} Basic EPS=Weighted average number of shares outstandingNet Income−Preferred dividends - 稀释每股收益 Diluted EPS
Diluted EPS = N I − D PS _ total # + D P S _ C # P S _ C → C S + I n t C D ( 1 − t ) # C D → C S + 1 # TSM \text{Diluted EPS}=\frac{NI-D_{\text{PS}\_\text{total}}}{\#}+\frac{D_{PS\_C}}{\#_{PS\_C\to CS}}+\frac{Int_{CD}(1-t)}{\#_{CD\to CS}}+\frac{1}{\#_{\text{TSM}}} Diluted EPS=#NI−DPS_total+#PS_C→CSDPS_C+#CD→CSIntCD(1−t)+#TSM1- # \# #:加权平均发行在外普通股股数
- # P S _ C → C S \#_{PS\_C\to CS} #PS_C→CS:可转优先股转普通股股数
- # C D → C S \#_{CD\to CS} #CD→CS:可转债转普通股股数
- # TSM \#_{\text{TSM}} #TSM:库存股法计算期权/凭证转化后普通股股数
- D P S D_{PS} DPS:优先股股利,total为一共,C为可转
- i n t C D int_{CD} intCD:可转债应付利息
Income Statement
- 净利润率 Net Profit Margin
Net Profit Margin = Net Income Revenue \text{Net Profit Margin}=\frac{\text{Net Income}}{\text{Revenue}} Net Profit Margin=RevenueNet Income - 毛利润率 Gross Profit Margin
Gross Profit Margin = Gross Profit Revenue \text{Gross Profit Margin}=\frac{\text{Gross Profit}}{\text{Revenue}} Gross Profit Margin=RevenueGross Profit
Analyzing Balance Sheets
Liquidity Ratios
- 流动比率 Current Ratio
Current Ratio = Current Assets Current Liabilities \text{Current Ratio}=\frac{\text{Current Assets}}{\text{Current Liabilities}} Current Ratio=Current LiabilitiesCurrent Assets - 速动比率 Quick Ratio (Acid test)
Quick Ratio = Cash + Marketable securities + Receivables Current liabilities \text{Quick Ratio}=\frac{\text{Cash}+\text{Marketable securities}+\text{Receivables}}{\text{Current liabilities}} Quick Ratio=Current liabilitiesCash+Marketable securities+Receivables - 现金比率 Cash Ratio
Cash Ratio = Cash + Marketable securities Current liabilities \text{Cash Ratio}=\frac{\text{Cash}+\text{Marketable securities}}{\text{Current liabilities}} Cash Ratio=Current liabilitiesCash+Marketable securities
Solvency Ratios
- 债务权益比(长期) (LT) Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Debt-to-Equity Ratio = Total LT Debt Total Equity \text{Debt-to-Equity Ratio}=\frac{\text{Total LT Debt}}{\text{Total Equity}} Debt-to-Equity Ratio=Total EquityTotal LT Debt - 债务权益比 Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Debt-to-Equity Ratio = Total Debt Total Equity \text{Debt-to-Equity Ratio}=\frac{\text{Total Debt}}{\text{Total Equity}} Debt-to-Equity Ratio=Total EquityTotal Debt - 总债务比 Total Debt Ratio
Total Debt Ratio = Total Debt Total Assets \text{Total Debt Ratio}=\frac{\text{Total Debt}}{\text{Total Assets}} Total Debt Ratio=Total AssetsTotal Debt - 财务杠杆 Financial Leverage Ratio
Financial Leverage Ratio = Total Assets Total Equity \text{Financial Leverage Ratio}=\frac{\text{Total Assets}}{\text{Total Equity}} Financial Leverage Ratio=Total EquityTotal Assets
Analyzing Statements of Cash FlowsⅠ
Dividend Payment Related
- 股利 BASE 法则
Beginning retained earnings + Net income − Dividends = Ending retained earnings \text{Beginning retained earnings}+\text{Net income}-\text{Dividends}=\text{Ending retained earnings} Beginning retained earnings+Net income−Dividends=Ending retained earnings
Analyzing Statements of Cash FlowsⅡ
FCF
- 公司自由现金流 FCFF
FCFF = NI+NCC+Int(1-T)-FCInv-WCInv = CFO+Int(1-T)-FCInv \text{FCFF}=\text{NI+NCC+Int(1-T)-FCInv-WCInv}=\text{CFO+Int(1-T)-FCInv} FCFF=NI+NCC+Int(1-T)-FCInv-WCInv=CFO+Int(1-T)-FCInv- FCInv \text{FCInv} FCInv:固定资本收入
- WCInv \text{WCInv} WCInv:营运资本收入
Cash Flow Ratios
- 现金流收入比 Cash flow to Revenue Ratio
Cash flow to Revenue Ratio = CFO Revenue \text{Cash flow to Revenue Ratio}=\frac{\text{CFO}}{\text{Revenue}} Cash flow to Revenue Ratio=RevenueCFO - 现金资产回报率 Cash return on Assets Ratio
Cash return on Assets Ratio = CFO Average Total Assets \text{Cash return on Assets Ratio}=\frac{\text{CFO}}{\text{Average Total Assets}} Cash return on Assets Ratio=Average Total AssetsCFO - 现金权益回报率 Cash return on Equity Ratio
Cash return on Equity Ratio = CFO Average Shareholder’s Equity \text{Cash return on Equity Ratio}=\frac{\text{CFO}}{\text{Average Shareholder's Equity}} Cash return on Equity Ratio=Average Shareholder’s EquityCFO - 现金经营收入比 Cash to Income Ratio
Cash to Income Ratio = CFO Operating Income \text{Cash to Income Ratio}=\frac{\text{CFO}}{\text{Operating Income}} Cash to Income Ratio=Operating IncomeCFO
Coverage Ratios
- 债务偿付比 Debt Coverage Ratio
Debt Coverage Ratio = CFO Total Debt \text{Debt Coverage Ratio}=\frac{\text{CFO}}{\text{Total Debt}} Debt Coverage Ratio=Total DebtCFO - 利息偿付比 Interest Coverage Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio = CFO + Interest paid + Tax paid Interest paid \text{Interest Coverage Ratio}=\frac{\text{CFO}+\text{Interest paid}+\text{Tax paid}}{\text{Interest paid}} Interest Coverage Ratio=Interest paidCFO+Interest paid+Tax paid - 重投资率 Reinvestment Ratio
Reinvestment Ratio = CFO Cash paid for LT assets \text{Reinvestment Ratio}=\frac{\text{CFO}}{\text{Cash paid for LT assets}} Reinvestment Ratio=Cash paid for LT assetsCFO - 债务清偿率 Debt Repayment Ratio
Debt Repayment Ratio = CFO Cash paid for LT debt repayment \text{Debt Repayment Ratio}=\frac{\text{CFO}}{\text{Cash paid for LT debt repayment}} Debt Repayment Ratio=Cash paid for LT debt repaymentCFO - 股利清偿率 Dividend Repayment Ratio
Dividend Repayment Ratio = CFO Dividend paid \text{Dividend Repayment Ratio}=\frac{\text{CFO}}{\text{Dividend paid}} Dividend Repayment Ratio=Dividend paidCFO - 投资融资率 Invesing & Financing Ratio
Invesing & Financing Ratio = CFO Cash outflows for Investing & Financing activities \text{Invesing \& Financing Ratio}=\frac{\text{CFO}}{\text{Cash outflows for Investing \& Financing activities}} Invesing & Financing Ratio=Cash outflows for Investing & Financing activitiesCFO
Analysis of Inventories
Inventory Related
- 存货周转率 Inventory Turnover Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio = COGS Average Inventory \text{Inventory Turnover Ratio}=\frac{\text{COGS}}{\text{Average Inventory}} Inventory Turnover Ratio=Average InventoryCOGS - 存货周转天数 Number of days of Inventory
Number(Inventory) = 365 Inventory Turnover Ratio \text{Number(Inventory)}=\frac{365}{\text{Inventory Turnover Ratio}} Number(Inventory)=Inventory Turnover Ratio365 - 资产周转率 Asset Turnover Ratio
Asset Turnover Ratio = NI Average Total Assets \text{Asset Turnover Ratio}=\frac{\text{NI}}{\text{Average Total Assets}} Asset Turnover Ratio=Average Total AssetsNI - 后进先出留存 LIFO Reserve
LIFO Reserve = Inventory(FIFO) − Inventory(LIFO) \text{LIFO Reserve}=\text{Inventory(FIFO)}-\text{Inventory(LIFO)} LIFO Reserve=Inventory(FIFO)−Inventory(LIFO)
Analysis of Long-Term Assets
Depreciation/Amortization
- 直线法 Straight-line Method
Depreciation/Amortization = Cost-Salvage Total useful life \text{Depreciation/Amortization}=\frac{\text{Cost-Salvage}}{\text{Total useful life}} Depreciation/Amortization=Total useful lifeCost-Salvage - 双倍加速法 Double Declining Balancing Method
Depreciation/Amortization = 2BV(begin) Total useful life \text{Depreciation/Amortization}=\frac{\text{2BV(begin)}}{\text{Total useful life}} Depreciation/Amortization=Total useful life2BV(begin) - 产能折旧法 Unit-of-production Method
Depreciation/Amortization = (Cost-Salvage) ⋅ Units Produced Total units \text{Depreciation/Amortization}=\text{(Cost-Salvage)}\cdot\frac{\text{Units Produced}}{\text{Total units}} Depreciation/Amortization=(Cost-Salvage)⋅Total unitsUnits Produced - 净账面价值 Net BV
Net BV = Cost-Accumulated Depreciation-Impairment \text{Net BV}=\text{Cost-Accumulated Depreciation-Impairment} Net BV=Cost-Accumulated Depreciation-Impairment
Analysis of Income Taxes
Deferred Tax
- 税会所得税转化 “relation between taxes”
Income Tax Expense = Current Tax Paid + Δ DTL − Δ DTA \text{Income Tax Expense}=\text{Current Tax Paid}+\Delta\text{DTL}-\Delta\text{DTA} Income Tax Expense=Current Tax Paid+ΔDTL−ΔDTA
Tax Rate
- 有效税率 Effective Tax Rate
T effective = Income Tax Expense EBT T_{\text{effective}}=\frac{\text{Income Tax Expense}}{\text{EBT}} Teffective=EBTIncome Tax Expense
Financial Analysis Techniques
Activity Ratio
- 存货周转率 Inventory Turnover
Inventory Turnover = COGS Average Inventory \text{Inventory Turnover}=\frac{\text{COGS}}{\text{Average Inventory}} Inventory Turnover=Average InventoryCOGS - 存货周转天数 Days of Inventory on Hand
DOH = # days in period Inventory Turnover \text{DOH}=\frac{\#_{\text{days in period}}}{\text{Inventory Turnover}} DOH=Inventory Turnover#days in period - 应收周转率 Receivables Turnover
A/R Turnover = Revenue Average A/R \text{A/R Turnover}=\frac{\text{Revenue}}{\text{Average A/R}} A/R Turnover=Average A/RRevenue - 存货周转天数 Days of Sales Outstanding
DSO = # days in period A/R Turnover \text{DSO}=\frac{\#_{\text{days in period}}}{\text{A/R Turnover}} DSO=A/R Turnover#days in period - 应付周转率 Payables Turnover
A/P Turnover = COGS Average A/P \text{A/P Turnover}=\frac{\text{COGS}}{\text{Average A/P}} A/P Turnover=Average A/PCOGS - 存货周转天数 Number of Days of Payable
Days(Payables) = # days in period A/P Turnover \text{Days(Payables)}=\frac{\#_{\text{days in period}}}{\text{A/P Turnover}} Days(Payables)=A/P Turnover#days in period - 营运资本周转率 Working Capital Turnover
W.C. Turnover = Revenue Average W.C. \text{W.C. Turnover}=\frac{\text{Revenue}}{\text{Average W.C.}} W.C. Turnover=Average W.C.Revenue - 固定资产周转率 Fixed Asset Turnover
Fixed Asset Turnover = Revenue Average net Fixed Assets \text{Fixed Asset Turnover}=\frac{\text{Revenue}}{\text{Average net Fixed Assets}} Fixed Asset Turnover=Average net Fixed AssetsRevenue - 总资产周转率 Total Asset Turnover
Total Asset Turnover = Revenue Average Total Assets \text{Total Asset Turnover}=\frac{\text{Revenue}}{\text{Average Total Assets}} Total Asset Turnover=Average Total AssetsRevenue
Liquidity Ratio
- 流动比率 Current Ratio
Current Ratio = Current Assets Current Liabilities \text{Current Ratio}=\frac{\text{Current Assets}}{\text{Current Liabilities}} Current Ratio=Current LiabilitiesCurrent Assets - 速动比率 Quick Ratio
Quick Ratio = Cash+Marketable Investment(ST)+Receivables Current Liabilities \text{Quick Ratio}=\frac{\text{Cash+Marketable Investment(ST)+Receivables}}{\text{Current Liabilities}} Quick Ratio=Current LiabilitiesCash+Marketable Investment(ST)+Receivables - 现金比率 Cash Ratio
Cash Ratio = Cash+Marketable Investment(ST) Current Liabilities \text{Cash Ratio}=\frac{\text{Cash+Marketable Investment(ST)}}{\text{Current Liabilities}} Cash Ratio=Current LiabilitiesCash+Marketable Investment(ST) - 防御区间比率 Defensive Interval Ratio
Defensive Interval Ratio = Cash+Marketable Investment(ST)+Receivables D a i l y C a s h E x p e n d i t u r e s \text{Defensive Interval Ratio}=\frac{\text{Cash+Marketable Investment(ST)+Receivables}}{Daily Cash Expenditures} Defensive Interval Ratio=DailyCashExpendituresCash+Marketable Investment(ST)+Receivables - 经营周期 Operating Cycle
OC = DOH + DSO \text{OC}=\text{DOH}+\text{DSO} OC=DOH+DSO - 现金周转周期/净经营周期 Cash Conversion Cycle
CCC = DOH + DSO − Days(Payables) = Net OC \text{CCC}=\text{DOH}+\text{DSO}-\text{Days(Payables)}=\text{Net OC} CCC=DOH+DSO−Days(Payables)=Net OC
Solvency Ratio
- 负债资产比 Debt-to-Assets Ratio
D/A = Total Debt Total Assets = ST Debt + LT Debt Total Assets \text{D/A}=\frac{\text{Total Debt}}{\text{Total Assets}}=\frac{\text{ST Debt}+\text{LT Debt}}{\text{Total Assets}} D/A=Total AssetsTotal Debt=Total AssetsST Debt+LT Debt - 负债资本比 Debt-to-Capital Ratio
D/Capital = Total Debt Total Debt+Total Shareholder’s Equity \text{D/Capital}=\frac{\text{Total Debt}}{\text{Total Debt+Total Shareholder's Equity}} D/Capital=Total Debt+Total Shareholder’s EquityTotal Debt - 负债权益比 Debt-to-Equity Ratio
D/E = Total Debt Total Shareholder’s Equity \text{D/E}=\frac{\text{Total Debt}}{\text{Total Shareholder's Equity}} D/E=Total Shareholder’s EquityTotal Debt - 财务杠杆比 Financial Leverage Ratio
Financial Leverage = Average Total Assets Average Total Equity \text{Financial Leverage}=\frac{\text{Average Total Assets}}{\text{Average Total Equity}} Financial Leverage=Average Total EquityAverage Total Assets - 债务息税折旧摊销前利润比 Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio
D/EBITDA = Total or Net Debt EBITDA \text{D/EBITDA}=\frac{\text{Total or Net Debt}}{\text{EBITDA}} D/EBITDA=EBITDATotal or Net Debt - 利息负担比 Interest Coverage Ratio
ICR = EBIT Interest Payments \text{ICR}=\frac{\text{EBIT}}{\text{Interest Payments}} ICR=Interest PaymentsEBIT - 固定支出负担比 Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio
Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio = EBIT + Lease Payment Interest Payments + Lease Payment \text{Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio}=\frac{\text{EBIT}+\text{Lease Payment}}{\text{Interest Payments}+\text{Lease Payment}} Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio=Interest Payments+Lease PaymentEBIT+Lease Payment
Profitability Ratio
- 毛利润率 Gross Profit Margin
Gross PM = Gross Profit Revenue \text{Gross PM}=\frac{\text{Gross Profit}}{\text{Revenue}} Gross PM=RevenueGross Profit - 经营利润率 Operating Profit Margin
Operating PM = Operating Profit Revenue \text{Operating PM}=\frac{\text{Operating Profit}}{\text{Revenue}} Operating PM=RevenueOperating Profit - 税前利润率 Pretax Margin
Pretax Margin = EBT Revenue \text{Pretax Margin}=\frac{\text{EBT}}{\text{Revenue}} Pretax Margin=RevenueEBT - 净利润率 Net Profit Margin
Net PM = NI Revenue \text{Net PM}=\frac{\text{NI}}{\text{Revenue}} Net PM=RevenueNI - 经营资本回报率 Operating ROA
Operating ROA = Operating Income Average Total Assets \text{Operating ROA}=\frac{\text{Operating Income}}{\text{Average Total Assets}} Operating ROA=Average Total AssetsOperating Income- Total Debt = ST Debt + LT Debt \text{Total Debt}=\text{ST Debt}+\text{LT Debt} Total Debt=ST Debt+LT Debt
- D pref = Preferred Dividends \text{D}_{\text{pref}}=\text{Preferred Dividends} Dpref=Preferred Dividends
- 资本回报率 ROA
ROA = NI Average Total Assets \text{ROA}=\frac{\text{NI}}{\text{Average Total Assets}} ROA=Average Total AssetsNI - 投资回报率 Return on Invested Capital
ROIC = EBIT ( 1 − t ) Average Total Debt + Average Total Equity \text{ROIC}=\frac{\text{EBIT}(1-t)}{\text{Average Total Debt}+\text{Average Total Equity}} ROIC=Average Total Debt+Average Total EquityEBIT(1−t) - 权益回报率 ROE
ROE = NI Average Total Equity \text{ROE}=\frac{\text{NI}}{\text{Average Total Equity}} ROE=Average Total EquityNI - 普通股本回报率 Return on Common Equity
Return on Common Equity = NI − D pref Average Common Equity \text{Return on Common Equity}=\frac{\text{NI}-D_{\text{pref}}}{\text{Average Common Equity}} Return on Common Equity=Average Common EquityNI−Dpref
DuPont Analysis
ROE = NI Equity = NI Asset ⋅ Asset Equity = NI Sales ⋅ Sales Asset ⋅ Asset Equity = NI EBT ⋅ EBT EBIT ⋅ EBIT Sales ⋅ Sales Asset ⋅ Asset Equity \text{ROE}=\frac{\text{NI}}{\text{Equity}}=\frac{\text{NI}}{\text{Asset}}\cdot\frac{\text{Asset}}{\text{Equity}}=\frac{\text{NI}}{\text{Sales}}\cdot\frac{\text{Sales}}{\text{Asset}}\cdot\frac{\text{Asset}}{\text{Equity}}=\frac{\text{NI}}{\text{EBT}}\cdot\frac{\text{EBT}}{\text{EBIT}}\cdot\frac{\text{EBIT}}{\text{Sales}}\cdot\frac{\text{Sales}}{\text{Asset}}\cdot\frac{\text{Asset}}{\text{Equity}} ROE=EquityNI=AssetNI⋅EquityAsset=SalesNI⋅AssetSales⋅EquityAsset=EBTNI⋅EBITEBT⋅SalesEBIT⋅AssetSales⋅EquityAsset
- NI/Sales:净利率
- Sales/Asset:总资产周转率
- Asset/Equity:杠杆率
- NI/EBT:税务负担比率 tax burden (1 - tax rate)
- EBT/EBIT:利息负担比率 interest burden
- EBIT/Sales:息税前利润率 EBIT Margin