【02】C4-C6

• PPT
  • Chapter 4 Basic Probability ⭐⭐⭐
    • Learning Objectives
      • Basic probability concepts
      • Conditional probability
      • To use Bayes’ Theorem to revise probabilities
    • Basic Probability Concepts
      • Probability – the chance that an uncertain event will occur (always between 0 and 1)
      • Impossible Event – an event that has no chance of occurring (probability = 0)
      • Certain Event – an event that is sure to occur (probability = 1)
    • Assessing Probability （Uncertain Event）
      • 1. a priori -- based on prior knowledge of the process
      • 2. empirical probability
      • 3. subjective probability
    • Computing Joint and Marginal ProbabilitiesMarginal probability for event A Marginal probability for event A :@公式:@公式
      • @公式

        

    • General Addition Rule
      • @公式

        

    • Computing Conditional Probabilities
      • A conditional probability is the probability of one event, given that another event has occurred:@公式

        

    • Independence
      • Two events are independent if and only if:@公式

        

    • Multiplication Rules
      • @公式

        

    • Marginal Probability
      • Marginal probability for event A Marginal probability for event A :@公式:@公式

        

    • Bayes’ Theorem
      • @公式

        

  • Chapter 5 Discrete Probability Distributions 【离散概率分布】----@❓ :
    • Learning Objectives
      • The properties of a probability distribution
      • To calculate the expected value and variance of a probability distribution
      • To calculate probabilities from binomial and Poisson distributions
      • How to use the binomial and Poisson distributions to solve business problems
    • Definitions

      

      • Random Variables
        • A random variable represents a possible numerical value from an uncertain event.
      • Discrete random variables
        • produce outcomes that come from a counting process (e.g. number of courses you are taking this semester).
      • Continuous random variables
        • produce outcomes that come from a measurement (e.g. your annual salary, or your weight).
    • Probability Distribution For A Discrete Random Variable
      • A probability distribution for a discrete random variable is a mutually exclusive listing of all possible numerical outcomes for that variable and a probability of occurrence associated with each outcome.

        

      • Measuring
        • Expected Value (or mean)
          • @公式 加权平均

            

        • Variance
          • @公式

            

    • Binomial Probability Distribution（二项概率分布）
      • Example
        • head or tail in each toss of a coin
      • Possible Applications
        • A manufacturing plant labels items as either defective or acceptable
        • A firm bidding for contracts will either get a contract or not
        • A marketing research firm receives survey responses of “yes I will buy” or “no I will not”
        • New job applicants either accept the offer or reject it
      • The Binomial Distribution Counting Techniques
        • @公式

          

      • Binomial Distribution Formula 不同X事件发生的概率@❓
        • @公式

          

        • The Binomial DistributionShape
          • The shape of the binomial distribution depends on the values of π and n

            

      • Binomial Distribution Characteristics
        • Mean
          • @公式

            

        • Variance and Standard Deviation
          • @公式

            

    • The Poisson Distribution （泊松分布）
      • Definitions
        • You use the Poisson distribution when you are interested in the number of times an event occurs in a given area of opportunity.
          • An area of opportunity is a continuous unit or interval of time, volume, or such area in which more than one occurrence of an event can occur. @❓： 不是离散型概率的吗？怎么连续了？
          • Example
            • The number of scratches in a car’s paint
            • The number of mosquito bites on a person
            • The number of computer crashes in a day
        • Apply the Poisson Distribution when:
          • You wish to count the number of times an event occurs in a given area of opportunity
          • The probability that an event occurs in one area of opportunity is the same for all areas of opportunity
          • The number of events that occur in one area of opportunity is independent of the number of events that occur in the other areas of opportunity
          • The probability that two or more events occur in an area of opportunity approaches zero as the area of opportunity becomes smaller
          • The average number of events per unit is (lambda)

            

      • Poisson Distribution Formula
        • @公式

          

      • Poisson Distribution Characteristics
        • Mean
          • @公式

            

        • Variance and Standard Deviation
          • @公式

            

        • where (lambda) = expected number of events
      • Graph of Poisson Probabilities

        

      • 可以通过查表得知 不同X的对应的lamada值，不用具体计算
  • Chapter 6 The Normal Distribution 【连续性概率分布】
    • Learning Objectives
      • To compute probabilities from the normal distribution
      • To use the normal probability plot to determine whether a set of data is approximately normally distributed
    • Continuous Probability Distributions
      • A continuous random variable is a variable that can assume any value on a continuum (can assume an uncountable number of values)
        • thickness of an item
        • time required to complete a task
        • temperature of a solution
        • height, in inches
    • The Normal Distribution
      • Characteristics
        • ‘Bell Shaped’
        • Symmetrical
        • Mean, Median and Mode are equal！
          • The Mode
        • Location is determined by the mean, μ
        • Spread is determined by the standard deviation, σ
        • Shape

          

      • The Normal DistributionDensity Function
        • Formula @公式

          

      • The Standardized Normal
        • Need to transform X units into Z units
        • The standardized normal distribution (Z) has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1
      • The Standardized Normal Distribution--- “Z” distribution
        • Mean is 0
        • Standard Deviation is 1
        • @公式 Z-Score
          • Finding Normal Probabilities

            

            

            

      • Finding the X Value @公式

        

      • Evaluating Normality
        • The interquartile range 【四分位】of a normal distribution is 1.33 standard deviations.