一个竹筒10根白的竹签10根黑的,随机抽10根,如果颜色一样给你100块钱,如果9个颜色一样1个颜色不一样,给你50块钱,如果颜色比是5:5,则要你给我50块。你愿意玩这个游戏吗?
计算一下分布
得到期望
用python模拟一下
import random
from collections import Counter
def simulate_bamboo_puzzle(num_simulations=1000000):
win_count = 0
loss_count = 0
for _ in range(num_simulations):
# 10 白 10 黑
sticks = ['white']*10 + ['black']*10
drawn_sticks = random.sample(sticks, 10)
counter = Counter(drawn_sticks)
if counter['white'] == 10 or counter['black'] == 10 or counter['white'] == 9 or counter['black'] == 9:
win_count += 1
elif counter['white'] == 5 and counter['black'] == 5:
loss_count += 1
win_probability = win_count / num_simulations
loss_probability = loss_count / num_simulations
return win_probability, loss_probability
# 进行1,000,000次模拟
num_simulations = 1000000
win_probability, loss_probability = simulate_bamboo_puzzle(num_simulations)
# 显示结果
print(f"胜率: {win_probability:.4f}")
print(f"负率: {loss_probability:.4f}")
print(f"平率: {1 - win_probability - loss_probability:.4f}")