2014年10大Web预测：结果！

At the beginning of 2013 I published 10 Web Predictions for 2013. I played it safe and scored a Nostradamus-like seven out of ten. My 10 Web Predictions for 2014 were a little more adventurous — let’s see how they fared…

在2013年初，我发布了2013年的10篇Web预测 。 我打得很安全，并在十个进球中打出了诺查丹玛斯般的七分。 我对2014年的10项Web预测更具冒险精神-让我们看看它们的表现如何…

1. 2014年是智能手机之年 (1. 2014 is the year of the smart phone)

You may have had an iPhone since 2007, but few others did outside the tech community. Smart phones only overtook feature phone sales in mid-2013 and they’ve had a considerable impact in emerging markets where the PC revolution never occurred.

自2007年以来，您可能已经拥有iPhone，但在技术界之外很少有人使用过。 智能手机仅在2013年中期超过了功能手机的销量，并且在从未发生过PC革命的新兴市场中产生了巨大影响。

It’s long been predicted that mobile web use would eventually overtake desktops. I was initially skeptical and it’s taken longer than expected, but mobile web access increased from 20% in November 2013 to 34% in November 2014. It surpassed my expectations.

长期以来，人们一直预测移动网络的使用最终将超过台式机。 最初我对此表示怀疑，花费的时间比预期要长，但是移动Web访问从2013年11月的20％增加到2014年11月的34％。它超出了我的预期。

Cumulative score: 1 out of 1. A strong start!

累计得分：1分(满分1)。

2. HTML5网络应用将成为主流 (2. HTML5 web apps will go mainstream)

I predicted that many native mobile app developers would switch to HTML5:

我预测许多本地移动应用程序开发人员将切换到HTML5：

1. A single web app is cheaper to develop than a multitude of apps for Apple, Android, Windows, Firefox OS and Blackberry devices.
   单个Web应用程序的开发成本比Apple，Android，Windows，Firefox OS和Blackberry设备的众多应用程序便宜。
2. Responsive Web Design techniques allow you to target multiple screen sizes in a single application.
   响应式Web设计技术使您可以在单个应用程序中定位多个屏幕尺寸。
3. Native functionality such as offline support, camera, microphone, sound, accelerometer, vibration, geo-location etc. would permit feature parity.
   诸如脱机支持，相机，麦克风，声音，加速度计，振动，地理位置等本机功能将允许功能奇偶校验。
4. There are no bizarre policy restrictions or exorbitant charges imposed by app stores.
   应用商店没有任何奇特的政策限制或高昂的收费。

5. A W3C packaged web app standard is available. Although I admitted cross-browser implementation and an official HTML5 App Store may take longer.

   提供W3C打包的Web应用程序标准 。 尽管我承认跨浏览器的实现，并且正式HTML5 App Store可能需要更长的时间。

While developers are considering the web, it’s clear that native apps are as popular as ever. Techniques such as offline-first are beginning to gain momentum, but 2014 was probably too early for mass migration.

在开发人员考虑使用Web的同时，很明显，本机应用程序一如既往地受欢迎。 离线优先等技术开始获得发展势头，但对于大规模迁移而言，2014年可能还为时过早。

Bah. 1 out of 2.

呸。 1之2。

3.客户端Flash，Silverlight和Java将消失 (3. Client-side Flash, Silverlight and Java will die)

Plug-in technologies have declined rapidly. You can still find adverts, videos, and games developed using Flash, Silverlight, and Java, but they’re mostly legacy applications. Those developers who remain on the platforms must be looking for an exit strategy.

插件技术Swift下降。 您仍然可以找到使用Flash，Silverlight和Java开发的广告，视频和游戏，但它们大多是旧版应用程序。 那些留在平台上的开发人员必须寻找退出策略。

I’m going to award myself another point. The plug-ins may not be fully dead, but they’re wandering around in a zombie-like brain-eating state.

我要奖励自己另一点。 这些插件可能还没有完全死掉，但是它们以僵尸般的大脑进食状态徘徊。

2 out of 3!

2之3！

4. IE12将发布 (4. IE12 will be released)

Oh, Microsoft — why did you let me down?! I thought this was an easy point especially given the recent scheduling improvements. A peek of IE12 is available in the Windows 10 betas and RemoteIE, but it’s not named IE12 and isn’t available to end users.

哦，微软-为什么让我失望？ 我认为这很容易，尤其是考虑到最近的调度改进。 Windows 10 beta和RemoteIE中提供了IE12的预览功能 ，但它没有命名为IE12，并且不适用于最终用户。

2 out of 4 — this isn’t going well…

四分之二-进行得不好…

5.浏览器市场将以IE和Chrome为主 (5. The browser market will be dominated by IE and Chrome)

My predictions:

我的预测：

• The browser market would become a two-horse race between IE and Chrome. Neither would move significantly.
  浏览器市场将成为IE和Chrome之间的两匹马竞赛。 两者都不会显着移动。
• Firefox would drop a little but remain above 15%.
  Firefox会下降一点，但仍保持在15％以上。
• Safari would hold at 10% mostly owing to the success of the iPad.
  由于iPad的成功，Safari的市场占有率将达到10％。

Hmm. Chrome gained more than 6% this year while IE dropped almost 8%. They’re still the market leaders but I expected it to be closer. My Firefox and Safari observations were spot-on.

嗯 Chrome今年增长了6％以上，而IE下降了近8％。 他们仍然是市场的领导者，但我希望它能变得更近。 我对Firefox和Safari的观察非常准确。

Half a point seems fair: 2.5 out of 5.

半点似乎很合理：5分中的2.5分。

6. Opera的使用率将下降 (6. Opera usage will fall)

Opera’s switch to Blink was a sound business decision, but version 15+ removed many of the features Opera’s passionate fan base loved. The new browser offered little over Chrome, and the demise of feature phone sales provided a bleak outlook.

Opera改用Blink是一个明智的业务决策，但是版本15+删除了Opera热情的粉丝群喜爱的许多功能。 新的浏览器提供的Chrome浏览器不多，功能手机销售的消亡使前景黯淡。

I’m relieved to say it didn’t happen. Despite complaints, Opera usage grew a little. So what do I know?

我很高兴地说这没有发生。 尽管有抱怨，Opera的使用却有所增加。 那我怎么知道

2.5 out of 6. It’s not looking good.

2.5 /6。看起来不太好。

7.微软将放弃或重命名Windows RT (7. Microsoft will abandon or re-brand Windows RT)

This was a tenuous link to the web but I thought it was important. Windows RT confuses people — mainly because it isn’t Windows and can’t run Windows software.

这是一个脆弱的网络链接，但我认为这很重要。 Windows RT使人们感到困惑-主要是因为它不是Windows并且不能运行Windows软件。

If anything, Microsoft is going further than I predicted. Windows 10 is a single code base for desktop, tablet, and mobile devices. No one mentions RT any longer and few devices offer the OS.

如果有的话，微软比我预想的要走得更远。 Windows 10是用于台式机，平板电脑和移动设备的单一代码库。 没人再提到RT，很少有设备提供操作系统。

Is that worth a point? I think so: 3.5 out of 7.

这值得吗？ 我认为是：3.5 / 7。

8.响应式图像标准将不可用！ (8. A responsive image standard won’t be available!)

I was hoping to be proved wrong but I doubted a usable responsive image technology would become available in 2014. However, it’s fared better than I expected and vendors agreed to implement both the picture and srcset standards. That said, few browsers have full support, but 2015 looks more promising.

我希望证明自己是错误的，但我怀疑2014年将推出可用的响应式图像技术。但是，它的表现比我预期的要好，并且供应商同意同时实现picture和srcset标准。 也就是说，很少有浏览器能够完全支持，但2015年看起来更有希望。

I’ll award myself half a point. 4 out of 8.

我会给自己半分。 4之8。

9.页面重量将稳定或下降 (9. Page weight will steady or drop)

Page weight has been increasing more than 30% every year. I hoped we’d reached the summit of stupidity:

网页重量每年都在增长30％以上。 我希望我们能达到愚蠢的顶峰：

1. There are only so many frivolous fonts, widgets, libraries, and images you can add to a page.
   您可以添加到页面上的字体，小部件，库和图像太少了。
2. HTML5 and better browsers should result in slimmer pages. CSS3 and consistent APIs lessen the need for JavaScript libraries. CSS effects, webfont icons, and SVGs offer an alternative to images.
   HTML5和更好的浏览器应使页面更小。 CSS3和一致的API减少了对JavaScript库的需求。 CSS效果，webfont图标和SVG提供了图像的替代方法。
3. Advertisers are switching from Flash to lighter-weight HTML alternatives.
   广告商正在从Flash切换到重量更轻HTML替代方案。
4. Build processes can remove redundant code then concatenate and minify files.
   构建过程可以删除冗余代码，然后串联并缩小文件。
5. Obese pages have a negative impact on SEO.
   肥胖的网页会对SEO产生负面影响。
6. The expanding mobile sector has stricter processing and bandwidth limits.
   不断扩大的移动部门具有更严格的处理和带宽限制。

The situation has improved. Page weight only increased by 15% during 2014 — but it remains excessive.

情况有所改善。 页面重量在2014年期间 仅 增加了15％，但仍然过高。

Perhaps it’s better, but I’m still disappointed and don’t deserve a point: 4 out of 9.

也许会更好，但我仍然感到失望，不值得一说：9之4。

10.对机器可读数据提要的新兴趣 (10. A renewed interest in machine-readable data feeds)

In essence, I predicted websites would become less important as information was collated and repackaged for easier consumption. Systems such as Google Glass, Google Now, and the rise of small-screen computing devices made this increasingly likely.

从本质上讲，我预测随着信息被整理和重新包装以便于使用，网站将变得不那么重要。 诸如Google Glass，Google Now之类的系统以及小屏幕计算设备的兴起使得这种可能性越来越大。

It’s difficult to quantify but there has certainly been a rise in applications providing REST APIs and microdata. Perhaps 2014 was too early, but data sharing is more prevalent than ever. Half a point seems reasonable.

很难量化，但是提供REST API和微数据的应用程序肯定有所增加。 也许2014年为时过早，但是数据共享比以往任何时候都更为普遍。 半点似乎是合理的。

That gives me a grand total of 4.5 out of 10. That’s 35% less accurate than last year but I have a cunning plan! 10 Web Predictions for 2015 is coming soon…

那给了我满分10分4.5的总分。这比去年下降了35％ ，但是我有一个狡猾的计划！ 2015年10种网络预测即将发布…

翻译自: https://www.sitepoint.com/10-web-predictions-2014-results/