切蛋糕最多切几块_没有蛋糕我要生存多长时间？

切蛋糕最多切几块

Clara Schartner

克拉拉·沙特纳（Clara Schartner）

As part of my summer internship at Mango I got to help out creating training materials. Learning new methods by preparing them in a teachable way is definitely my new favourite way of learning!

作为我在Mango夏季实习的一部分，我需要帮助编写培训材料。 通过以可教导的方式准备新方法来学习新方法，绝对是我最喜欢的新学习方法！

But once I started preparing training material for Survival Analysis I faced an issue: whilst Survival Analysis is used for many different things these days it still carries a name immediately associated with its original purpose: Analysing deaths in medical settings. This association is probably not ideal for sparking an interest for this method. Many textbook examples nowadays include time-to-repair of machines or equipment. This is an improvement but it’s still not the most positive of examples. So, why not use the time-to-event everyone is looking forward to? Like time-to-cake!

但是，一旦我开始准备生存分析的培训材料，我就会遇到一个问题：尽管生存分析如今用于许多不同的事物，但它仍然具有与最初目的直接相关的名称：在医疗环境中分析死亡。 这种关联可能不太适合激发对此方法的兴趣。 如今，许多教科书示例都包括机器或设备的维修时间。 这是一个改进，但仍然不是最积极的示例。 那么，为什么不使用每个人都期待的活动时间呢？ 像蛋糕时间！

At Mango we occasionally bring in cake, sweets or treats for different reasons: birthdays, mangoversaries or holidays. My favourite reason so far has been “because it’s friday”. The barplot below shows everything brought in over the past two months. There is a clear trend for bringing in treats on a Friday.

在芒果，我们有时会出于各种原因而带来蛋糕，糖果或零食：生日，手工制作或假期。 到目前为止，我最喜欢的原因是“因为它是星期五”。 下面的小节显示了过去两个月带来的一切。 在星期五带点心有明显的趋势。

A more fun example of survival analysis is to consider the time in between someone bringing cake to work.This example differs from normal survival analysis however: normally time to event (death, repair etc.) per unit of observation (person, equipment) is calculated. There are no real units of observation but a new unit of observation “arises” every time someone brings in cake and the time-to-event is simply the time between cakes being brought in (which can be as small as 20 minutes!).

生存分析的一个更有趣的例子是考虑某人拿蛋糕上班的时间，但是这个例子与正常的生存分析不同：通常每观察单位（人，设备）的事件发生时间（死亡，维修等）为计算。 没有真正的观察单位，但是每次有人带来蛋糕时，都会有一个新的观察单位“上升”，到达事件的时间就是引入蛋糕之间的时间（可能短至20分钟！）。

But first, let’s look at some simple descriptive statistics:As can be clearly seen from the barplot there were clearly less sweets being brought in during August and early September due to people being on holiday. This will affect the outcome and raise the estimated time-to-cake.

但是首先，让我们看一下一些简单的描述性统计数据：从小图中可以清楚地看到，由于人们度假，八月和九月初带进的糖果明显减少了。 这将影响结果并增加预计的成型时间。

What also has an influence is the time of the day when people bring in sweets:

人们每天带来糖果的时间也是有影响的：

People tend to bring in cake in the early morning or the afternoon. This means that if cake is being brought in early in the morning the time to next cake is likely to be shorter than when cake is brought in at 11am.

人们倾向于在清晨或下午带蛋糕。 这意味着，如果在清晨带入蛋糕，则下一个蛋糕的时间可能比上午11点带进蛋糕的时间要短。

The Kaplan Meier Curve shows that is very unlikely that we have to endure a whole week without sweets at Mango! Even having to wait more than 8 hours has a probability below 50%.

Kaplan Meier曲线表明，在芒果上我们要忍受整整一周没有糖果的可能性很小！ 即使必须等待8个小时以上，概率也可能低于50％。

翻译自: https://www.pybloggers.com/2016/10/how-long-do-i-have-to-survive-without-cake/

切蛋糕最多切几块