P2P 网络借贷信用风险及防范研究

摘 要
互联网以开放性、广泛性、高效性、交互性等特点，正在改变着人类社会经济活动，
助推着社会经济的发展。以互联网为载体的移动支付、社交网络和云计算等现代信息科
技的发展，对金融模式产生了颠覆性影响，逐渐形成了互联网金融。互联网金融将互联
网技术与传统金融对资源的优化配置功能相融合，不断发挥着信息互通、资源共享、经
济便利、普惠金融等优势，是传统金融的有益补充。互联网金融在传统金融无暇顾及的
领域发挥着重要作用，更好地服务于实体经济，推动着社会经济的发展。近年来，P2P
网络借贷作为互联网金融领域中最为活跃的业态之一，发展极为快速。但是，P2P 网络
借贷的快速发展背后，各种风险问题不断凸显，由于受互联网的广涉及面和强关联性等
特点的影响，如果发生大规模违约事件，会数倍放大其风险，甚至影响整个金融体系的
稳定，因此，必须对P2P 网络借贷进行严加防范。P2P 网络借贷产品不论如何虚拟化和
技术化，其核心尚属金融，其产品也可以被视为一种信用的风险定价，防范其风险的关
键就是防范信用风险。因此，本文以P2P 网络借贷信用风险及防范为题开展深入研究。
本文分析了P2P 网络借贷信用风险的特征、种类、主要问题、成因与传导，对P2P
网络借贷信用风险进行量化分析，并分别针对P2P 网络借贷信用风险的微观成因与宏观
成因设计出具有针对性的防范对策，以助推P2P 网络借贷行业更好地服务于实体经济，
为我国社会经济健康发展做贡献。
本文研究的主要内容和结构安排如下：
绪论部分主要阐明了本文的研究背景、研究意义、研究内容、研究方法、创新与不
足等。
第一章理论基础与相关文献综述。首先，本文以信息不对称理论、金融脆弱性理论，
以及金融监管套利理论等作为理论基础，解释了P2P 网络借贷信用风险的产生原因及影
响等。其次，本文分别从P2P 网络借贷信用风险影响、P2P 网络借贷信用风险成因、P2P
网络借贷信用风险量化，以及P2P 网络借贷信用风险防范等四个方面，梳理国内外相关
文献的发展脉络。
第二章P2P 网络借贷信用风险的特征、分类及主要问题。首先，本文认为P2P 网络
借贷与传统金融信用风险相同的特征有隐匿性、内生脆弱性和交叉传染性；不同于传统
金融信用风险的特征有多面性和迅速积聚性。其次，根据不同划分标准，本文划分了
P2P 网络借贷信用风险的种类：按违约主体不同，分为借款人信用风险、出借人信用风
险，以及P2P 网络借贷平台信用风险；按借款人还款意愿不同，分为借款人被迫违约风
险和借款人恶意违约风险；按信用风险来源不同，分为来源于微观层面的P2P 网络借贷
信用风险和来源于宏观层面的P2P 网络借贷信用风险。最后，本文分析得出P2P 网络借
贷信用风险的主要问题有逾期率居高不下、P2P 网络借贷平台对借款人信用风险的防控
能力较差，以及P2P 网络借贷平台欺诈屡禁不止等。
II
第三章P2P 网络借贷信用风险的成因与传导。首先，本文从微观角度分析了P2P
网络借贷信用风险的成因，主要包括借款人的违约风险、P2P 网络借贷平台的违约风险，
以及出借人的违约风险；从宏观角度分析了P2P 网络借贷信用风险的成因，主要包括
P2P 网络借贷行业的征信体系尚不完善、P2P 网络借贷行业自律尚不完善，以及P2P 网
络借贷行业法律法规尚不完善等。其次，本文认为P2P 网络借贷信用风险的传导条件是
平台所积累的信用风险超越了传导的边界值，信用风险将以其他交易主体为载体进行传
导；其信用风险的传导方式包括直接传导和间接传导；P2P 网络借贷信用风险的传导过
程包括向其他P2P 网络借贷平台的传导、向P2P 网络借贷行业的传导、向传统金融领域
的传导，以及向实体经济的传导等。
第四章P2P 网络借贷信用风险量化分析。首先，本文对比分析了信用评分法、CART
结构分析法、Credit Metrics 模型、KMV 模型，以及Credit Risk+模型等几种常用的信用
风险量化方法的优缺点，从中选取出适合P2P 网络借贷信用风险特点的Credit Risk+模
型。其次，本文以RRD 网络借贷平台整个借款组合数据为样本，将借款组合数据中借
款人所属行业数据扩展至9 个不同行业，运用Credit Risk+模型计算得到样本平台的非
预期损失结果，为样本平台所需经济资本提供参考依据。
第五章P2P 网络借贷信用风险微观层面的防范。首先，本文针对P2P 网络借贷借款
人的信用风险提出对策建议：构建了借款人信用风险预警系统，提出了该预警系统顺利
运行的保障措施；在加强对借款人的信息管理对策中，提出了加大对借款人信用信息的
收集与共享力度、强化P2P 网络借贷平台对借款人的资信调查、对借款人信用状况进行
实时监控等；提出了规范P2P 网络借贷平台对借款人信用风险的管理流程；提出了制定
借款人信用奖励政策。其次，本文针对P2P 网络借贷平台的信用风险提出对策建议：尽
快完成P2P 网络借贷平台备案登记；加强P2P 网络借贷平台内控管理；强化落实P2P
网络借贷平台的资金存管制度；在加大P2P 网络借贷平台的信息披露力度对策中，提出
了加强P2P 网络借贷平台在数据报送与信息披露质量方面的管理；在加强P2P 网络借贷
平台的信用文化建设对策中，提出了形成管理者和员工的信用文化意识、加强对管理者
和员工职业道德和业务素质的培养。
第六章P2P 网络借贷信用风险宏观层面的防范。首先，本文提出了完善P2P 网络借
贷征信体系的对策建议：针对我国P2P 网络借贷征信体系的发展情况，借鉴国际征信体
系的先进经验，设计出符合我国国情的P2P 网络借贷征信体系“主—次—辅”模式，并
提出P2P 网络借贷征信体系顺利运行的保障措施。其次，本文提出加强P2P 网络借贷行
业自律的对策建议：完善P2P 网络借贷行业自律管理机制、充分发挥P2P 网络借贷行业
自律组织的作用，以及发挥P2P 网络借贷交易双方对行业自律的无形作用等。最后，本
文提出了完善P2P 网络借贷法律法规体系的对策建议：进一步完善P2P 网络借贷行业的
法律法规、完善P2P 网络借贷平台的市场准入制度，以及完善P2P 网络借贷平台的退出
制度等。
关键词：P2P 网络借贷；信用风险；信用风险量化；信用风险防范
III
Abstract
The characteristics of the Internet, such as openness, wide-ranging, high-efficiency, and
interactiveness, are changing the social and economic activities of human beings and boosting
the development of social economy. The development of modern information technology such as
mobile payments, social networks, and cloud computing based on the Internet has exerted a
disruptive influence on the financial model and gradually formed Internet finance. Internet
finance integrates Internet technology and traditional finance to optimize the allocation of
resources, and continues to play an important role in information sharing, resource sharing,
economic convenience, inclusive finance, and is a useful complement to traditional finance.
Internet finance plays an important role in areas that traditional finance has no time to care about.
It serves the real economy better and promotes the development of social economy. In recent
years, P2P Internet lending has become one of the most active formats in the Internet finance
sector, and it has developed extremely rapidly. However, behind the rapid development of
Peer-to-Peer lending, various risk issues continue to grow, due to the impact of the Internet's
extensive coverage and strong relevance, if a large-scale violation occurs, it will increase its risk
several times, and even affect the stability of the entire financial system. Therefore, it is
necessary to strictly prevent Peer-to-Peer borrowing. The core of Peer-to-Peer lending products,
regardless of how they are virtualized and technologicalized, is finance. Their products can also
be regarded as a kind of credit risk pricing. The key to preventing their risks is to prevent credit
risks. Therefore, this article takes Peer-to-Peer lending credit risk and prevention as an in-depth
study.
This paper analyzes the characteristics, types, major problems, causes, and transmission of
credit risk in Peer-to-Peers, and quantitatively analyzes the credit risk of Peer-to-Peer lending, in
order to contribute to the healthy development of China's social economy, the Peer-to-Peer
lending industry can help the real economy to better serve the real economy by designing
targeted countermeasures against the micro and macro causes of credit risk in Peer-to-Peers.
The main content and structure of this study are as follows:
The introduction part mainly explains the research background, research significance, main
research content, research method, innovation and deficiency.
The first chapter reviews the theoretical basis and related literature review. First of all, this
paper uses information asymmetry theory, financial fragility theory and financial supervision
arbitrage theory as the theoretical basis to explain the causes of credit risk of Peer-to-Peer
lending. Secondly, this paper sorts out the development context of related literatures at home and
abroad from the following four aspects: the impact of Peer-to-Peer lending credit risk, the credit
risk of Peer-to-Peer lending, the credit risk of Peer-to-Peer lending, and the credit risk prevention
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of Peer-to-Peer lending.
The second chapter describes the characteristics, classification and main performance of
credit risk of Peer-to-Peer lending. First of all, this paper holds that the characteristics of
Peer-to-Peer lending and traditional financial credit risk are occult, endogenous, and
cross-contagious. Different from the traditional financial credit risk features, there are many
aspects and rapid accumulation. Secondly, according to different classification criteria, this
paper divides the types of credit risk of Peer-to-Peer lending: according to different breaching
parties, it is divided into borrower credit risk, lender's credit risk, and Peer-to-Peer lending
platform credit risk; according to the different borrowers' willingness to repay, they are
divided into the risk of the borrower being forced to default and the malicious default risk of
the borrower; according to different sources of credit risk, the credit risk of Peer-to-Peer
derived from the micro level and the credit risk of Peer-to-Peer borrowed from the macro
level are classified. Finally, this paper analyzes that the main problems of Peer-to-Peer
lending credit risk are that the overdue rate is high, the Peer-to-Peer lending platform has poor
ability to prevent and control the credit risk of the borrower, and the Peer-to-Peer lending
platform fraud continues to ban, etc.
The third chapter analysis the causes and transmission of loan credit risk of Peer-to-Peer
lending. First of all, this paper analyzes the causes of loan credit risk of Peer-to-Peer lending
from a micro perspective, mainly including default risk of borrowers, default risk of lenders,
and default risk of Peer-to-Peer lending platform, according to the analysis, the lender's
default risk may not be considered as an influential factor, and the default risk of the
Peer-to-Peer lending platform should be one of the important factors, the default risk of the
borrower of the Peer-to-Peer lending is a more important factor, analyzes the causes of credit
risk of Peer-to-Peer lending from a macro perspective, mainly including that the credit system
of the Peer-to-Peer lending industry is not yet perfect, the self-discipline of the Peer-to-Peer
lending industry is not perfect, and the laws and regulations of the Peer-to-Peer lending
industry are not yet perfect, according to the analysis, among them, the laws and regulations
of the Peer-to-Peer lending industry are still not perfect, which is due to the imperfection of
laws and regulations and resulting in Peer-to-Peer lending credit risk; the self-discipline of the
Peer-to-Peer lending industry is still not perfect, and it is impossible to effectively control and
control the credit risk of Peer-to-Peer lending from the level of self-discipline, and it is easy to
generate the credit risk of Peer-to-Peer lending; The Peer-to-Peer lending credit system is still
incomplete, making the Peer-to-Peer lending industry unable to obtain strong support for
credit risk prevention and control from the credit level, and it is easy to generate Peer-to-Peer
lending credit risk.Secondly, the analysis considers that the conduction condition of the credit
risk of the Peer-to-Peer lending credit is that the accumulated credit risk of the platform exceeds
the conduction boundary value, and the credit risk will be conducted with other transaction
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subjects as the carrier; there are direct and indirect transmissions of credit risk in Peer-to-Peer
lending; the process of Peer-to-Peer lending credit risk transfer includes four processes: internal
Peer-to-Peer lending platform conduction, lending to the Peer-to-Peer lending industry,
transmission to the traditional financial sector, and transmission to the real economy.
The fourth chapter analysis the quantitative analysis of credit risk in Peer-to-Peer lending.
First of all, this paper compares and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of several credit
risk quantification methods, such as credit scoring method, CART structure analysis method,
Credit Metrics model, KMV model, and Credit Risk+ model, selectes the Credit Risk+ model
that is suitable for the credit risk characteristics of Peer-to-Peer lending. Second, this paper uses
the entire loan portfolio data of the RRD network lending platform as a sample, the borrower's
industry data in the loan portfolio data was expanded to 9 different industries, uses the Credit
Risk+ model to calculate the unintended loss of the sample platform and provides a reference for
the economic capital required by the sample platform.
The fifth chapter analysis the credit risk in Peer-to-Peer lending at the micro level. First of
all, this paper puts forward some countermeasures against the credit risk of the borrower of
Peer-to-Peer lending borrowing: constructs the loaner's credit risk early-warning system and
puts forward the safeguard measures for the smooth operation of the early-warning system; in
strengthening the information management measures for borrowers, it is proposed to increase
the collection and sharing of credit information of borrowers, strengthen the Peer-to-Peer
lending platform's credit investigation on borrowers, and monitor the borrower's credit status
in real time; puts forward a standardized management process of the Peer-to-Peer lending
platform for the borrower's credit risk, and proposes to formulate a borrower's credit reward
policy. Secondly, this paper proposes countermeasures against the credit risk of the
Peer-to-Peer lending platform: it proposes to complete the registration and registration of the
Peer-to-Peer lending platform as soon as possible; strengthen the internal control management
of the Peer-to-Peer lending platform; strengthen the implementation of the fund custody
system of the Peer-to-Peer lending platform; in strengthening the information disclosure
countermeasures of the Peer-to-Peer lending platform, the management of strengthening the
data reporting and information disclosure quality of the Peer-to-Peer lending platform was
proposed; in strengthening the credit culture construction strategy of the Peer-to-Peer lending
platform, proposes the formation of a sense of credit culture for managers and employees, and
strengthens the cultivation of professional ethics and professional quality of managers and
employees.
The sixth chapter proposes the macro-level prevention of credit risk of Peer-to-Peer lending
loans. First of all, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for improving the
Peer-to-Peer lending credit system: based on the development of the Peer-to-Peer lending credit
system in China, and drawing on the advanced experience of the international credit system, this
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paper has designed the "master-sub-auxiliary" model of the Peer-to-Peer lending credit system in
line with China's national conditions, and proposed the safeguard measures for the smooth
operation of the Peer-to-Peer lending credit system. Secondly, this paper puts forward some
countermeasures to strengthen the self-discipline of the Peer-to-Peer lending industry: improve
the self-discipline management mechanism of the Peer-to-Peer lending industry, give full play to
the role of the self-discipline organization of the Peer-to-Peer lending industry, and play the
intangible role of the Peer-to-Peer lending and transaction parties on industry self-discipline.
Finally, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to perfect the Peer-to-Peer
lending laws and regulations system: further improve the laws and regulations of the
Peer-to-Peer lending industry, improve the market access system of the Peer-to-Peer lending
platform, and improve the exit system of the Peer-to-Peer lending platform.
Key words: Peer-to-Peer Lending; Credit Risk; Quantification of Credit Risk; Credit Risk
Prevention

原文地址：

http://www.hongfu951.info/file/resource-detail.do?id=60db37b6-58ad-46c6-876d-476b2388a96a