Missing From The Economic Recovery: Jobs

眼下的就业市场，复苏是相对的。美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)将于周五公布5月份的就业数据。经济学家们的平均预期值是，美国5月份的非农就业人数减少525,000人。4月份的非农就业人数减少了539,000人，加上5月份减少的就业人数，本轮经济衰退开始以来失去工作的人将达到630万，是上世纪30年代以来历次经济衰退中最多的。预计美国的失业率将升至9.2%，达到1983年以来的最高水平。这都是些可怕的数字。如果5月份非农就业人数减少525,000人，那将成为美国历史上就业人口减少量第12高的月份。目前美国大约有16%的劳动人口要么失业，要么从事兼职工作，因为他们找不到其他工作可作。但市场早就习惯了这样的数字。而且也有理由希望就业市场能逐步改善。MKM Partners的首席经济学家和策略师达达(Michael Darda)说，从历史经验看，垃圾债券收益率与美国国债收益率间息差的变动趋势会领先于首次申请失业救济人数变动趋势约三个月。目前高收益率债券和美国国债间的息差已经较去年12月底时的高点回落了近一半，而首次申请失业救济人数似乎也已在4月初达到了最高点，这两个高点出现的时间相差了约三个月。如果二者间的这种关系能够继续维持，那么在达达看来，到夏末时首次申请失业救济人数会大幅下降。但垃圾债券和美国国债间的息差依然巨大，而每周首次申请失业救济人数最近虽然有所下降，但仍略高于475,000人，高于去年9月雷曼兄弟公司(Lehman Brothers Holdings)垮台时的水平，大约相当于前两次经济衰退时首次申请失业救济人数的峰值。就业市场虽然已经不再继续恶化，但它的复苏却可能来得很慢，这对美国经济来说可不是什么好消息。失业率虽然通常会在一次经济衰退结束时升高，但失业率居高不下却可能打击背负债务的消费者，使银行业蒙受更多损失。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的经济学家史密斯(Seamus Smyth)最近对客户说，平均每周工作时间与国内生产总值增长率密切相关。截至4月份，这一数据暗示美国第二季度国内生产总值要比人们普遍预期的差。如果5月份平均每周工作时间显著增加，那将成为显示本轮经济衰退已接近结束的又一迹象。但就业市场和经济强劲复苏的可能性依然不高。Mark Gongloff相关阅读贝南克：经济将在今年晚些时候恢复增长 2009-06-04盖特纳：中国对美国有信心 2009-06-03盖特纳：美国经济在复苏，中国请放心 2009-06-01


In the job market these days, recovery is relative.The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May employment data on Friday. Economists, on average, think nonfarm payrolls shed 525,000 jobs, following a 539,000 loss in April, which would push the number of jobs lost during this recession to 6.3 million, the worst since the 1930s. Unemployment is expected to rise to 9.2%, the highest since 1983.These are awful numbers; a loss of 525,000 payroll jobs would be the 12th-biggest monthly loss on record. Roughly 16% of the work force is either unemployed or is working part time because they can't find any other work.But markets long ago grew inured to such numbers. And there are reasons to hope the job market is improving. Michael Darda, chief economist and strategist at MKM Partners, notes that the spread between interest rates on junk bonds and Treasury debt historically leads new claims for unemployment benefits by about three months.The high-yield spread has been cut nearly in half from its late-December peak, and jobless claims appear to have peaked in early April, roughly three months after the high-yield spread. If the relationship holds, 'jobless claims could fall precipitously by late summer,' Mr. Darda says.But the spread remains wide, and the recent narrowing would still leave claims somewhere north of 475,000 a week -- higher than before Lehman Brothers Holdings collapsed in September and roughly matching the peak of claims in the past two recessions.The labor market is no longer cratering, but its recovery may come slowly, and that isn't good news for the economy. Unemployment usually rises after a recession ends, but persistently high unemployment could weigh on indebted consumers and fuel more losses in the banking sector.The number of hours worked on nonfarm payrolls corresponds tightly with gross-domestic-product growth, Goldman Sachs economist Seamus Smyth told clients recently. As of April, this data point suggested worse second-quarter GDP than the consensus expects.Significant improvement in hours in May would be another sign the recession's end is near. The case for a robust labor and economic recovery, however, remains thin.Mark Gongloff