开始有 n n n个黑球, m m m个蓝球
每次 p p p概率加入黑球, 1 − p 1-p 1−p加入蓝球,然后随机拿走一个球
问 k k k次操作后的黑球期望
大水题
f [ i ] f[i] f[i]表示第 i i i次操作后还剩 f [ i ] f[i] f[i]个黑球
f [ i ] = f [ i − 1 ] + p − f [ i − 1 ] + 1 n + m + 1 ∗ p − f [ i − 1 ] n + m + 1 ∗ ( 1 − p ) f[i]=f[i-1]+p-\frac{f[i-1]+1}{n+m+1}*p-\frac{f[i-1]}{n+m+1}*(1-p) f[i]=f[i−1]+p−n+m+1f[i−1]+1∗p−n+m+1f[i−1]∗(1−p)
化简一下得到 f [ i ] = p + f [ i − 1 ] ∗ ( n + m + 1 ) − f [ i − 1 ] − p n + m + 1 f[i]=p+\frac{f[i-1]*(n+m+1)-f[i-1]-p}{n+m+1} f[i]=p+n+m+1f[i−1]∗(n+m+1)−f[i−1]−p
分离系数得到
f [ i ] = ( p − p n + m + 1 ) + f [ i − 1 ] ∗ n + m n + m + 1 f[i]=(p-\frac{p}{n+m+1})+f[i-1]*\frac{n+m}{n+m+1} f[i]=(p−n+m+1p)+f[i−1]∗n+m+1n+m
初始矩阵 [ ( p − p n + m + 1 ) , f [ 0 ] ] [(p-\frac{p}{n+m+1}),f[0]] [(p−n+m+1p),f[0]]
构造矩阵
S = [ 1 1 0 n + m n + m + 1 ] S= \begin{bmatrix} 1 & 1 \\ 0 & \frac{n+m}{n+m+1} \\ \end{bmatrix} S=[101n+m+1n+m]
矩阵快速幂即可
但这样还不够快
令 s = n + m n + m + 1 s=\frac{n+m}{n+m+1} s=n+m+1n+m
f [ i ] = s ∗ p + s ∗ f [ i − 1 ] f[i]=s*p+s*f[i-1] f[i]=s∗p+s∗f[i−1]
f [ 1 ] = s ∗ p + s ∗ f [ 0 ] f[1]=s*p+s*f[0] f[1]=s∗p+s∗f[0]
f [ 2 ] = s ∗ p + s ∗ f [ 1 ] = s ∗ p + s 2 ∗ p + s 2 f [ 0 ] f[2]=s*p+s*f[1]=s*p+s^2*p+s^2f[0] f[2]=s∗p+s∗f[1]=s∗p+s2∗p+s2f[0]
f [ 3 ] = s ∗ p + s 2 ∗ p + s ∗ f [ 2 ] = p ∗ ( s + s 2 + s 3 ) + s 3 f [ 0 ] f[3]=s*p+s^2*p+s*f[2]=p*(s+s^2+s^3)+s^3f[0] f[3]=s∗p+s2∗p+s∗f[2]=p∗(s+s2+s3)+s3f[0]
这样可以 O ( 1 ) O(1) O(1)得到解
#include <bits/stdc++.h>
using namespace std;
#define int long long
const int mod = 1e9+7;
const int maxn = 1e6+10;
int n,m,k,a,b,f[maxn];
struct rce
{
int m[3][3];
rce() { memset( m,0,sizeof m); }
};
rce operator * ( rce a,rce b)
{
rce ans;
for(int i=1;i<=2;i++)
for(int j=1;j<=2;j++)
{
for(int k=1;k<=2;k++)
ans.m[i][j] = ( ans.m[i][j]+a.m[i][k]*b.m[k][j]%mod )%mod;
}
return ans;
}
rce init()
{
rce ans;
for(int i=1;i<=2;i++) ans.m[i][i] = 1;
return ans;
}
int quick(int x,int n)
{
int ans = 1;
for( ; n ; n>>=1,x=x*x%mod )
if( n&1 ) ans =ans*x%mod;
return ans;
}
rce quick( rce a,int n)
{
rce ans=init();
for( ; n ; n>>=1,a=a*a )
if( n&1 ) ans = ans*a;
return ans;
}
signed main()
{
cin >> n >> m >> k >> a >> b;
int p = a*quick(b,mod-2)%mod;
int pp = p-p*quick(n+m+1,mod-2)%mod; pp = (pp%mod+mod)%mod;
int mu = (n+m)*quick(n+m+1,mod-2)%mod;
rce chu; chu.m[1][1] = pp, chu.m[1][2] = n;
rce gou; gou.m[1][1] = 1, gou.m[1][2] = 1;
gou.m[2][1] = 0, gou.m[2][2] = mu;
chu = chu*quick(gou,k);
cout << (chu.m[1][2]+mod)%mod;
}