EMOS模型总结

1. 需要加载模型 library(ensembleMOS)

2.模型训练天数与性能分析

可以看出，由于总共有63天的数据，但并不是使用的数据天数越多越好，而是在40-55天的长度训练是最佳的长度。

3.模型在拟合时总是出现了异常拟合，报错信息如下：

Error in optim(pars, fn = objectiveFUN, method = control$optimRule, control = list(maxit = control$maxIter)) :

后来如模型的作者进行了沟通，过程如下：

Dear prof. 
Sorry to disturb you. 
I am a teacher of China. I want to use the EMOS model in R language, but I found it always presented some errors: " .Error in optim(pars, fn = objectiveFUN, method = control$optimRule, control = list(maxit = control$maxIter)) : ", I do not how to sovle it. Could you give me some suggestions? Please find the test code and data in the attachment. 
Thanks a lot for your help. 
Yours, 

作者很友好，很快回复了：

Dear Colleague,
As you have 8 non-exchangeable ensemble members, your gev0 model has 12 parameters to be estimated. You want to do it from 30 forecast cases, that is data/parameter ratio is less than 3, which is voodoo, not statistics :) That is why the optimization procedure fails. The training length should be increased to at least 120, or you might also consider your members to be exchangeable resulting in just 5 parameters.
Best,
Sandor
增加样本数量，效果立马不一样了。