Sub-X项目介绍和主要产品

Introduction: subseasonal forecasts, i.e. that bridge the gap between medium range weather forecasts (up to 10 days) and seasonal climate predictions (above a month). They are issued at different frequencies (from daily to once or twice a week) forecasting daily values with lead times from 1 to about 40 days, depending on the Global Producing Center (GPC). The availability of forecast products in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time range offers an unprecedented opportunity to develop intra-seasonal forecast information that other forecasts can't, in association with increased lead time compared to medium range weather forecasts, and with higher temporal resolution than seasonal forecasts that give an overview of an upcoming seasons (3 months). For instance, subseasonal forecasts may allow delivering relevant information about key climate characteristics such as the timing of the onset of a rainy season for agriculture, the risk of extreme rainfall events or heat waves in regards to public health.

The subseasonal experiment (SubX) is a multi-model subseasonal prediction experiment. Seven global models are producing seventeen years of retrospective (re-) forecasts and one year of weekly real-time forecasts. Re-forecasts follow the SubX protocol that requires the years 1999-2015, at least three ensemble members, a minimum of weekly initialization, and at least 32-days in length. All data are output on a 1deg x 1deg grid. The re-forecasts are archived at the IRI Data Library for research...

At the moment, we propose experimental subseasonal forecasts of 2-week precipitation terciles based on the multi-model ensemble of individual forecasts issued every Saturdays through the SubX real-time database and every Thursday through the delayed S2S database. The forecasts are presented in the form of tercile precipitation probabilities for the weeks #2-3 and #3-4 averages, i.e. the 2-week periods 8-to-21 days and 15-to-28 days from the forecast issue date. For the delayed S2S forecasts, a Skill Maproom provides measures of historical skill for individual model forecasts and their multi-model ensemble. http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.SubX/

1. CESM-Community Earth System Mode, maintained by the Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory (CGD) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). （大气所）
2. ECCC-Environment and Climate Change Canada, Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) and Global Ensemble Prediction System. (https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change.html)（加拿大）
3. EMC-National Weather Service's National Centers For Environmental Prediction's Environmental Modeling Center. 。Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. NCEP started the GEFS to address the nature of uncertainty in weather observations, which are used to initialize weather forecast models. (https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/global-ensemble-forecast-system-gefs-2-5-deg).（气象局）
4. ESRL-Earth System Research Laboratory, is one of seven NOAA Research Laboratories. NOAA-ESRL has developed a global icosahedral weather model: the Flow-following finite-volume Icosahedral Model (FIM).（海洋局）
5. GMAO- Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, support NASA's current suite of Earth Observation missions. It use data gathered by past and current missions, and help plan for future observing systems, The Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) model.（宇航局）
6. NCEP-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the latest model of Climate Forecast System (CFS) is a model representing the global interaction between Earth's oceans, land, and atmosphere. Produced by several dozen scientists under guidance from the NCEP, this model offers hourly data with a horizontal resolution down to 0.5ºaround Earth. CFS uses the latest scientific approaches for taking in, or assimilating, observations from data sources including surface observations, upper air balloon observations, aircraft observations, and satellite observations.（环保部）
7. NRL-Naval Research Laboratory, Navy’s Earth System Model (NESM). The Marine Meteorology and the Oceanography divisions of the NRL are developing its new global coupled model that builds on the existing operational models: NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) for the Atmosphere, and Global Ocean Forecasting System (GOFS) 3.1, which consist of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for the ocean and the Community Ice CodE (CICE) for the sea ice.（海军）
8. RSMAS-Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, has grown into one of the leading academic oceanographic and atmospheric research institutions in the world. The School's basic and applied research interests encompass virtually all marine-related sciences. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a coupled climate model for simulating Earth's climate system. Composed of five separate models simultaneously simulating the Earth's atmosphere, ocean, land, land-ice, and sea-ice, plus one central coupler component, CCSM allows researchers to conduct fundamental research into the Earth's past, present, and future climate states. (https://www.rsmas.miami.edu/about-us/mission/index.html) （迈阿密大学）