集成学习_案例：PUBG绝地求生

项目实现

• 你必须创建⼀个模型，根据他们的最终统计数据预测玩家的排名，从1（第⼀名）到0（最后⼀名）。
• 最后结果通过平均绝对误差（MAE）进⾏评估，即通过预测的winPlacePerc和真实的winPlacePerc之间的平均绝对误 差
• 关于MAE: sklearn.metrics.mean_absolute_error
  

获取数据、基本数据信息查看

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns

train = pd.read_csv("./data/train_V2.csv")

train.head()

	Id	groupId	matchId	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	...	revives	rideDistance	roadKills	swimDistance	teamKills	vehicleDestroys	walkDistance	weaponsAcquired	winPoints	winPlacePerc
0	7f96b2f878858a	4d4b580de459be	a10357fd1a4a91	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	60	...	0	0.0000	0	0.00	0	0	244.80	1	1466	0.4444
1	eef90569b9d03c	684d5656442f9e	aeb375fc57110c	0	0	91.47	0	0	0	57	...	0	0.0045	0	11.04	0	0	1434.00	5	0	0.6400
2	1eaf90ac73de72	6a4a42c3245a74	110163d8bb94ae	1	0	68.00	0	0	0	47	...	0	0.0000	0	0.00	0	0	161.80	2	0	0.7755
3	4616d365dd2853	a930a9c79cd721	f1f1f4ef412d7e	0	0	32.90	0	0	0	75	...	0	0.0000	0	0.00	0	0	202.70	3	0	0.1667
4	315c96c26c9aac	de04010b3458dd	6dc8ff871e21e6	0	0	100.00	0	0	0	45	...	0	0.0000	0	0.00	0	0	49.75	2	0	0.1875

5 rows × 29 columns

train.tail()

	Id	groupId	matchId	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	...	revives	rideDistance	roadKills	swimDistance	teamKills	vehicleDestroys	walkDistance	weaponsAcquired	winPoints	winPlacePerc
4446961	afff7f652dbc10	d238e426f50de7	18492834ce5635	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	74	...	0	1292.0	0	0.000	0	0	1019.0	3	1507	0.1786
4446962	f4197cf374e6c0	408cdb5c46b2ac	ee854b837376d9	0	1	44.15	0	0	0	69	...	0	0.0	0	0.000	0	0	81.7	6	0	0.2935
4446963	e1948b1295c88a	e26ac84bdf7cef	6d0cd12784f1ab	0	0	59.06	0	0	0	66	...	0	0.0	0	2.184	0	0	788.7	4	0	0.4815
4446964	cc032cdd73b7ac	c2223f35411394	c9c701d0ad758a	0	4	180.40	1	1	2	11	...	2	0.0	0	0.000	0	0	2748.0	8	0	0.8000
4446965	0d8e7ed728b6fd	8c74f72fedf5ff	62a16aabcc095c	0	2	268.00	0	0	1	18	...	0	1369.0	0	0.000	0	0	1244.0	5	0	0.5464

5 rows × 29 columns

train.describe()

	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	killPoints	kills	killStreaks	...	revives	rideDistance	roadKills	swimDistance	teamKills	vehicleDestroys	walkDistance	weaponsAcquired	winPoints	winPlacePerc
count	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	...	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446966e+06	4.446965e+06
mean	2.338149e-01	1.106908e+00	1.307171e+02	6.578755e-01	2.268196e-01	1.370147e+00	4.759935e+01	5.050060e+02	9.247833e-01	5.439551e-01	...	1.646590e-01	6.061157e+02	3.496091e-03	4.509322e+00	2.386841e-02	7.918208e-03	1.154218e+03	3.660488e+00	6.064601e+02	4.728216e-01
std	5.885731e-01	1.715794e+00	1.707806e+02	1.145743e+00	6.021553e-01	2.679982e+00	2.746294e+01	6.275049e+02	1.558445e+00	7.109721e-01	...	4.721671e-01	1.498344e+03	7.337297e-02	3.050220e+01	1.673935e-01	9.261157e-02	1.183497e+03	2.456544e+00	7.397004e+02	3.074050e-01
min	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	1.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	...	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00
25%	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	2.400000e+01	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	...	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	1.551000e+02	2.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	2.000000e-01
50%	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	8.424000e+01	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	4.700000e+01	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	...	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	6.856000e+02	3.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	4.583000e-01
75%	0.000000e+00	2.000000e+00	1.860000e+02	1.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	2.000000e+00	7.100000e+01	1.172000e+03	1.000000e+00	1.000000e+00	...	0.000000e+00	1.909750e-01	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	0.000000e+00	1.976000e+03	5.000000e+00	1.495000e+03	7.407000e-01
max	2.200000e+01	3.300000e+01	6.616000e+03	5.300000e+01	6.400000e+01	8.000000e+01	1.010000e+02	2.170000e+03	7.200000e+01	2.000000e+01	...	3.900000e+01	4.071000e+04	1.800000e+01	3.823000e+03	1.200000e+01	5.000000e+00	2.578000e+04	2.360000e+02	2.013000e+03	1.000000e+00

8 rows × 25 columns

train.info()

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
RangeIndex: 4446966 entries, 0 to 4446965
Data columns (total 29 columns):
Id                 object
groupId            object
matchId            object
assists            int64
boosts             int64
damageDealt        float64
DBNOs              int64
headshotKills      int64
heals              int64
killPlace          int64
killPoints         int64
kills              int64
killStreaks        int64
longestKill        float64
matchDuration      int64
matchType          object
maxPlace           int64
numGroups          int64
rankPoints         int64
revives            int64
rideDistance       float64
roadKills          int64
swimDistance       float64
teamKills          int64
vehicleDestroys    int64
walkDistance       float64
weaponsAcquired    int64
winPoints          int64
winPlacePerc       float64
dtypes: float64(6), int64(19), object(4)
memory usage: 983.9+ MB

# 查看一共要多少条数据
train.shape

(4446966, 29)

# 有多少场比赛
np.unique(train["matchId"]).shape

(47965,)

# 有多少支队伍
np.unique(train["groupId"]).shape

(2026745,)

数据基本处理

数据缺失值处理

# 判断哪列有缺失值,发现只有winPlacePerc有 
np.any(train.isnull())

Id                 False
groupId            False
matchId            False
assists            False
boosts             False
damageDealt        False
DBNOs              False
headshotKills      False
heals              False
killPlace          False
killPoints         False
kills              False
killStreaks        False
longestKill        False
matchDuration      False
matchType          False
maxPlace           False
numGroups          False
rankPoints         False
revives            False
rideDistance       False
roadKills          False
swimDistance       False
teamKills          False
vehicleDestroys    False
walkDistance       False
weaponsAcquired    False
winPoints          False
winPlacePerc        True
dtype: bool

# 查找缺失值
train[train["winPlacePerc"].isnull()]

	Id	groupId	matchId	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	...	revives	rideDistance	roadKills	swimDistance	teamKills	vehicleDestroys	walkDistance	weaponsAcquired	winPoints	winPlacePerc
2744604	f70c74418bb064	12dfbede33f92b	224a123c53e008	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	1	...	0	0.0	0	0.0	0	0	0.0	0	0	NaN

1 rows × 29 columns

# 删除
train = train.drop(2744604)

train.shape

(4446965, 29)

特征数据规范化处理

查看每场比赛参加的人数

count = train.groupby("matchId")["matchId"].transform("count")

train["playersJoined"] = count

train.head()

	Id	groupId	matchId	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	...	rideDistance	roadKills	swimDistance	teamKills	vehicleDestroys	walkDistance	weaponsAcquired	winPoints	winPlacePerc	playersJoined
0	7f96b2f878858a	4d4b580de459be	a10357fd1a4a91	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	60	...	0.0000	0	0.00	0	0	244.80	1	1466	0.4444	96
1	eef90569b9d03c	684d5656442f9e	aeb375fc57110c	0	0	91.47	0	0	0	57	...	0.0045	0	11.04	0	0	1434.00	5	0	0.6400	91
2	1eaf90ac73de72	6a4a42c3245a74	110163d8bb94ae	1	0	68.00	0	0	0	47	...	0.0000	0	0.00	0	0	161.80	2	0	0.7755	98
3	4616d365dd2853	a930a9c79cd721	f1f1f4ef412d7e	0	0	32.90	0	0	0	75	...	0.0000	0	0.00	0	0	202.70	3	0	0.1667	91
4	315c96c26c9aac	de04010b3458dd	6dc8ff871e21e6	0	0	100.00	0	0	0	45	...	0.0000	0	0.00	0	0	49.75	2	0	0.1875	97

5 rows × 30 columns

train["playersJoined"].sort_values().head()

1206365    2
2109739    2
3956552    5
3620228    5
696000     5
Name: playersJoined, dtype: int64

plt.figure(figsize=(20, 8))
sns.countplot(train["playersJoined"])
plt.grid()
plt.show()

# train[train["playersJoined"]>=75]["playersJoined"]

plt.figure(figsize=(20, 8))
sns.countplot(train[train["playersJoined"]>=75]["playersJoined"])
plt.grid()
plt.show()

规范化输出部分数据

train["killsNorm"] = train["kills"] * ((100-train["playersJoined"])/100+1)

train["damageDealtNorm"] = train["damageDealt"] * ((100-train["playersJoined"])/100+1)
train["maxPlaceNorm"] = train["maxPlace"] * ((100-train["playersJoined"])/100+1)
train["matchDurationNorm"] = train["matchDuration"] * ((100-train["playersJoined"])/100+1)

train.head()

	Id	groupId	matchId	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	...	vehicleDestroys	walkDistance	weaponsAcquired	winPoints	winPlacePerc	playersJoined	killsNorm	damageDealtNorm	maxPlaceNorm	matchDurationNorm
0	7f96b2f878858a	4d4b580de459be	a10357fd1a4a91	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	60	...	0	244.80	1	1466	0.4444	96	0.00	0.0000	29.12	1358.24
1	eef90569b9d03c	684d5656442f9e	aeb375fc57110c	0	0	91.47	0	0	0	57	...	0	1434.00	5	0	0.6400	91	0.00	99.7023	28.34	1936.93
2	1eaf90ac73de72	6a4a42c3245a74	110163d8bb94ae	1	0	68.00	0	0	0	47	...	0	161.80	2	0	0.7755	98	0.00	69.3600	51.00	1344.36
3	4616d365dd2853	a930a9c79cd721	f1f1f4ef412d7e	0	0	32.90	0	0	0	75	...	0	202.70	3	0	0.1667	91	0.00	35.8610	33.79	1565.24
4	315c96c26c9aac	de04010b3458dd	6dc8ff871e21e6	0	0	100.00	0	0	0	45	...	0	49.75	2	0	0.1875	97	1.03	103.0000	99.91	1466.72

5 rows × 34 columns

# 比较经过规范化的特征值和原始特征值的值
to_show = ['Id', 'kills','killsNorm','damageDealt', 'damageDealtNorm', 'maxPlace', 'maxPlaceNorm', 'matchDuration', 'matchDurationNorm']
train[to_show][0:11]

	Id	kills	killsNorm	damageDealt	damageDealtNorm	maxPlace	maxPlaceNorm	matchDuration	matchDurationNorm
0	7f96b2f878858a	0	0.00	0.000	0.00000	28	29.12	1306	1358.24
1	eef90569b9d03c	0	0.00	91.470	99.70230	26	28.34	1777	1936.93
2	1eaf90ac73de72	0	0.00	68.000	69.36000	50	51.00	1318	1344.36
3	4616d365dd2853	0	0.00	32.900	35.86100	31	33.79	1436	1565.24
4	315c96c26c9aac	1	1.03	100.000	103.00000	97	99.91	1424	1466.72
5	ff79c12f326506	1	1.05	100.000	105.00000	28	29.40	1395	1464.75
6	95959be0e21ca3	0	0.00	0.000	0.00000	28	28.84	1316	1355.48
7	311b84c6ff4390	0	0.00	8.538	8.87952	96	99.84	1967	2045.68
8	1a68204ccf9891	0	0.00	51.600	53.14800	28	28.84	1375	1416.25
9	e5bb5a43587253	0	0.00	37.270	38.38810	29	29.87	1930	1987.90
10	2b574d43972813	0	0.00	28.380	28.66380	29	29.29	1811	1829.11

部分变量合成

train["healsandboosts"] = train["heals"] + train["boosts"]

train[["heals", "boosts", "healsandboosts"]].tail(10)

	heals	boosts	healsandboosts
4446956	1	0	1
4446957	0	1	1
4446958	0	0	0
4446959	0	0	0
4446960	0	0	0
4446961	0	0	0
4446962	0	1	1
4446963	0	0	0
4446964	2	4	6
4446965	1	2	3

异常值处理

异常值处理：删除有击杀，但是完全没有移动的玩家

train["totalDistance"] = train["rideDistance"] + train["walkDistance"] + train["swimDistance"]

train.head()

	Id	groupId	matchId	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	...	winPoints	winPlacePerc	playersJoined	killsNorm	damageDealtNorm	maxPlaceNorm	matchDurationNorm	healsandboosts	totalDistance	killwithoutMoving
0	7f96b2f878858a	4d4b580de459be	a10357fd1a4a91	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	60	...	1466	0.4444	96	0.00	0.0000	29.12	1358.24	0	244.8000	False
1	eef90569b9d03c	684d5656442f9e	aeb375fc57110c	0	0	91.47	0	0	0	57	...	0	0.6400	91	0.00	99.7023	28.34	1936.93	0	1445.0445	False
2	1eaf90ac73de72	6a4a42c3245a74	110163d8bb94ae	1	0	68.00	0	0	0	47	...	0	0.7755	98	0.00	69.3600	51.00	1344.36	0	161.8000	False
3	4616d365dd2853	a930a9c79cd721	f1f1f4ef412d7e	0	0	32.90	0	0	0	75	...	0	0.1667	91	0.00	35.8610	33.79	1565.24	0	202.7000	False
4	315c96c26c9aac	de04010b3458dd	6dc8ff871e21e6	0	0	100.00	0	0	0	45	...	0	0.1875	97	1.03	103.0000	99.91	1466.72	0	49.7500	False

5 rows × 37 columns

# (train["kills"] > 0) & (train["totalDistance"] == 0)

train["killwithoutMoving"] = (train["kills"] > 0) & (train["totalDistance"] == 0)

train[train["killwithoutMoving"] == True].head()

	Id	groupId	matchId	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	...	winPoints	winPlacePerc	playersJoined	killsNorm	damageDealtNorm	maxPlaceNorm	matchDurationNorm	healsandboosts	totalDistance	killwithoutMoving
1824	b538d514ef2476	0eb2ce2f43f9d6	35e7d750e442e2	0	0	593.0	0	0	3	18	...	0	0.8571	58	8.52	842.060	21.30	842.06	3	0.0	True
6673	6d3a61da07b7cb	2d8119b1544f87	904cecf36217df	2	0	346.6	0	0	6	33	...	0	0.6000	42	4.74	547.628	17.38	2834.52	6	0.0	True
11892	550398a8f33db7	c3fd0e2abab0af	db6f6d1f0d4904	2	0	1750.0	0	4	5	3	...	0	0.8947	21	35.80	3132.500	35.80	1607.42	5	0.0	True
14631	58d690ee461e9d	ea5b6630b33d67	dbf34301df5e53	0	0	157.8	0	0	0	69	...	1500	0.0000	73	1.27	200.406	24.13	1014.73	0	0.0	True
15591	49b61fc963d632	0f5c5f19d9cc21	904cecf36217df	0	0	100.0	0	1	0	37	...	0	0.3000	42	1.58	158.000	17.38	2834.52	0	0.0	True

5 rows × 37 columns

train[train["killwithoutMoving"] == True].shape

(1535, 37)

train[train["killwithoutMoving"] == True].index

Int64Index([   1824,    6673,   11892,   14631,   15591,   20881,   23298,
              24640,   25659,   30079,
            ...
            4426500, 4429697, 4432954, 4436511, 4437516, 4440232, 4440898,
            4440927, 4441511, 4446682],
           dtype='int64', length=1535)

train.drop(train[train["killwithoutMoving"] == True].index, inplace=True)

train.shape

(4445430, 37)

异常值处理：删除驾车杀敌数异常的数据

# train["roadKills"] > 10

train.drop(train[train["roadKills"] > 10].index, inplace=True)

train.shape

(4445426, 37)

异常值处理：删除玩家在一局中杀敌数超过30人的数据

train[train["kills"] > 30].head()

	Id	groupId	matchId	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	...	winPoints	winPlacePerc	playersJoined	killsNorm	damageDealtNorm	maxPlaceNorm	matchDurationNorm	healsandboosts	totalDistance	killwithoutMoving
57978	9d8253e21ccbbd	ef7135ed856cd8	37f05e2a01015f	9	0	3725.0	0	7	0	2	...	1500	0.8571	16	64.40	6854.00	14.72	3308.32	0	48.82	False
87793	45f76442384931	b3627758941d34	37f05e2a01015f	8	0	3087.0	0	8	27	3	...	1500	1.0000	16	57.04	5680.08	14.72	3308.32	27	780.70	False
156599	746aa7eabf7c86	5723e7d8250da3	f900de1ec39fa5	21	0	5479.0	0	12	7	4	...	0	0.7000	11	90.72	10355.31	20.79	3398.22	7	23.71	False
160254	15622257cb44e2	1a513eeecfe724	db413c7c48292c	1	0	4033.0	0	40	0	1	...	1500	1.0000	62	57.96	5565.54	11.04	1164.72	0	718.30	False
180189	1355613d43e2d0	f863cd38c61dbf	39c442628f5df5	5	0	3171.0	0	6	15	1	...	0	1.0000	11	66.15	5993.19	17.01	3394.44	15	71.51	False

5 rows × 37 columns

train.drop(train[train["kills"] > 30].index, inplace=True)
train.shape

(4445331, 37)

异常值处理：删除爆头率异常数据

train["headshot_rate"] = train["headshotKills"]/train["kills"]
train["headshot_rate"].head()

0    NaN
1    NaN
2    NaN
3    NaN
4    0.0
Name: headshot_rate, dtype: float64

train["headshot_rate"] = train["headshot_rate"].fillna(0)

train.head()

	Id	groupId	matchId	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	...	winPlacePerc	playersJoined	killsNorm	damageDealtNorm	maxPlaceNorm	matchDurationNorm	healsandboosts	totalDistance	killwithoutMoving	headshot_rate
0	7f96b2f878858a	4d4b580de459be	a10357fd1a4a91	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	60	...	0.4444	96	0.00	0.0000	29.12	1358.24	0	244.8000	False	0.0
1	eef90569b9d03c	684d5656442f9e	aeb375fc57110c	0	0	91.47	0	0	0	57	...	0.6400	91	0.00	99.7023	28.34	1936.93	0	1445.0445	False	0.0
2	1eaf90ac73de72	6a4a42c3245a74	110163d8bb94ae	1	0	68.00	0	0	0	47	...	0.7755	98	0.00	69.3600	51.00	1344.36	0	161.8000	False	0.0
3	4616d365dd2853	a930a9c79cd721	f1f1f4ef412d7e	0	0	32.90	0	0	0	75	...	0.1667	91	0.00	35.8610	33.79	1565.24	0	202.7000	False	0.0
4	315c96c26c9aac	de04010b3458dd	6dc8ff871e21e6	0	0	100.00	0	0	0	45	...	0.1875	97	1.03	103.0000	99.91	1466.72	0	49.7500	False	0.0

5 rows × 38 columns

train[(train["headshot_rate"] == 1) & (train["kills"] > 9)].head()

	Id	groupId	matchId	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	...	winPlacePerc	playersJoined	killsNorm	damageDealtNorm	maxPlaceNorm	matchDurationNorm	healsandboosts	totalDistance	killwithoutMoving	headshot_rate
281570	ab9d7168570927	add05ebde0214c	e016a873339c7b	2	3	1212.0	8	10	0	1	...	0.8462	93	10.70	1296.84	28.89	1522.61	3	2939.0	False	1.0
346124	044d18fc42fc75	fc1dbc2df6a887	628107d4c41084	3	5	1620.0	13	11	3	1	...	1.0000	96	11.44	1684.80	28.08	1796.08	8	8142.0	False	1.0
871244	e668a25f5488e3	5ba8feabfb2a23	f6e6581e03ba4f	0	4	1365.0	9	13	0	1	...	1.0000	98	13.26	1392.30	27.54	1280.10	4	2105.0	False	1.0
908815	566d8218b705aa	a9b056478d71b2	3a41552d553583	2	5	1535.0	10	10	3	1	...	0.9630	95	10.50	1611.75	29.40	1929.90	8	7948.0	False	1.0
963463	1bd6fd288df4f0	90584ffa22fe15	ba2de992ec7bb8	2	6	1355.0	12	10	2	1	...	1.0000	96	10.40	1409.20	28.08	1473.68	8	3476.0	False	1.0

5 rows × 38 columns

train[(train["headshot_rate"] == 1) & (train["kills"] > 9)].index

Int64Index([ 281570,  346124,  871244,  908815,  963463, 1079403, 1167959,
            1348164, 1380385, 1483199, 1581850, 1622232, 1753322, 2256755,
            2375749, 2647056, 2825200, 3288424, 3594399, 3926325, 4036281,
            4351048, 4387092, 4428741],
           dtype='int64')

train.drop(train[(train["headshot_rate"] == 1) & (train["kills"] > 9)].index, inplace=True)
train.shape

(4445307, 38)

异常值处理：删除最远杀敌距离异常数据

train[train["longestKill"] >=1000]

	Id	groupId	matchId	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	...	winPlacePerc	playersJoined	killsNorm	damageDealtNorm	maxPlaceNorm	matchDurationNorm	healsandboosts	totalDistance	killwithoutMoving	headshot_rate
202281	88e2af7d78af5a	34ddeede52c042	4346bc63bc67fa	0	3	783.9	5	1	1	5	...	0.9231	88	4.48	877.968	30.24	2087.68	4	3775.20	False	0.250000
240005	41c2f5c0699807	9faecf87ab4275	634edab75860b3	5	0	1284.0	8	5	7	18	...	0.5385	29	18.81	2195.640	23.94	2236.68	7	48.87	False	0.454545
324313	ef390c152bcc3d	30fd444be3bbc1	4f7f8d6cf558b4	2	0	1028.0	0	0	0	9	...	1.0000	51	14.90	1531.720	19.37	1040.02	0	2981.00	False	0.000000
656553	9948b058562163	c8cb8491112bf6	0104eeb664494d	6	0	1410.0	17	5	0	3	...	0.6000	41	25.44	2241.900	9.54	1734.69	0	29.21	False	0.312500
803632	4e7e6c74e3c57d	94698690918933	da91b0c3d875f8	0	0	196.8	0	0	0	51	...	0.0000	61	1.39	273.552	11.12	654.69	0	3159.00	False	0.000000
895411	1f5ba6e0cfb968	512ea24b831be3	5fb0d8b1fc16cf	4	0	1012.0	11	5	0	5	...	0.9091	86	11.40	1153.680	13.68	1163.94	0	569.50	False	0.500000
1172437	303a93cfa1f46c	8795d39fd0df86	9c8962b58bb3e3	2	1	329.3	0	0	2	45	...	0.2857	58	4.26	467.606	11.36	825.02	3	832.50	False	0.000000
1209416	528659ff1c1aec	7d1ba83423551d	ea9386587d5888	0	6	1640.0	0	7	0	1	...	0.9412	52	22.20	2427.200	76.96	1827.80	6	2848.00	False	0.466667
1642712	91966848e08e2f	0ee4fbd27657c9	17dea22cefe62a	3	2	2103.0	0	4	11	11	...	0.5000	28	39.56	3617.160	25.80	3092.56	13	235.30	False	0.173913
2015559	5ff0c1a9fab2ba	2d8119b1544f87	904cecf36217df	3	3	1302.0	0	6	5	15	...	0.6000	42	17.38	2057.160	17.38	2834.52	8	133.20	False	0.545455
2122128	42df3102cb540b	7d9b2be15b355b	610d78f3affd2e	5	0	2500.0	0	7	1	2	...	0.0000	10	41.80	4750.000	3.80	3416.20	1	464.50	False	0.318182
2152425	4b9f61bac5eb0a	bc717b964f3bbe	838cb9a3c94598	3	0	945.4	0	0	0	11	...	0.5714	60	18.20	1323.560	11.20	1673.00	0	844.70	False	0.000000
2592718	24e0fec84c18e9	8404855ca02e48	e886a8ebb702cf	7	0	1684.0	0	4	7	11	...	0.5714	26	22.62	2930.160	38.28	3118.08	7	4851.00	False	0.307692
2981715	7f77051c7cef52	d6579a630399b5	4784f7d9a06b51	3	5	1025.0	5	2	5	2	...	1.0000	93	6.42	1096.750	50.29	1453.06	10	4085.96	False	0.333333
3081503	f19a76e8d7ac52	624d65c529f87c	de19b70121c40f	3	0	1038.0	0	0	0	32	...	0.8571	57	8.58	1484.340	11.44	945.23	0	270.00	False	0.000000
3255171	5524c154448425	674195558ad41b	db6f6d1f0d4904	1	0	1355.0	0	2	0	9	...	0.5789	21	25.06	2425.450	35.80	1607.42	0	1039.00	False	0.142857
3304284	d0c286ce498e17	17fdd45e612bab	3eaaa2f7a360fe	7	0	2330.0	0	2	0	2	...	1.0000	53	29.40	3425.100	26.46	1321.53	0	68.02	False	0.100000
3320960	0040e53dfe7b5d	650661c2351eb7	2daabf3a7852e6	0	0	399.0	2	0	6	14	...	0.0000	15	7.40	738.150	14.80	2763.90	6	5481.00	False	0.000000
3552532	db638834c62f6f	0614b611d6a935	ff80300f8262f5	2	0	517.0	0	0	0	10	...	0.0000	30	8.50	878.900	6.80	612.00	0	1344.88	False	0.000000
4332473	d8857d3d7e31b6	085de7a36897e6	42f997c16d8a0e	5	0	1685.0	11	3	18	8	...	0.9091	26	27.84	2931.900	20.88	3119.82	18	523.30	False	0.187500

20 rows × 38 columns

train[train["longestKill"] >=1000].index

Int64Index([ 202281,  240005,  324313,  656553,  803632,  895411, 1172437,
            1209416, 1642712, 2015559, 2122128, 2152425, 2592718, 2981715,
            3081503, 3255171, 3304284, 3320960, 3552532, 4332473],
           dtype='int64')

train.drop(train[train["longestKill"] >=1000].index, inplace=True)
train.shape

(4445287, 38)

异常值处理：删除关于运动距离的异常值

# 行走
train[train["walkDistance"] >=10000].index

Int64Index([  23026,   34344,   49312,   68590,   94400,  125103,  136421,
             136476,  154080,  154128,
            ...
            4181311, 4230073, 4259976, 4284974, 4288445, 4306598, 4370543,
            4380785, 4405009, 4415088],
           dtype='int64', length=219)

train.drop(train[train["walkDistance"] >=10000].index, inplace=True)
train.shape

(4445068, 38)

# 载具
train[train["rideDistance"] >=20000].index

Int64Index([  28588,   63015,   70507,   72763,   95276,  140097,  297186,
             371098,  403647,  426708,
            ...
            4154459, 4191491, 4239725, 4248221, 4256764, 4270943, 4301013,
            4386384, 4404738, 4440261],
           dtype='int64', length=150)

train.drop(train[train["rideDistance"] >=20000].index, inplace=True)
train.shape

(4444918, 38)

# 游泳
train[train["swimDistance"] >=2000].index

Int64Index([ 177973,  274258, 1005337, 1195818, 1227362, 1889163, 2065940,
            2327586, 2784855, 3359439, 3513522, 4132225],
           dtype='int64')

train.drop(train[train["swimDistance"] >=20000].index, inplace=True)
train.shape

(4444918, 38)

异常值处理：武器收集异常值处理

train[train["weaponsAcquired"] >=80].index

Int64Index([ 233643,  588387, 1437471, 1449293, 1592744, 1834515, 2373240,
            2442962, 2743408, 2749693, 2797867, 2973445, 2977084, 2982525,
            3230315, 3405716, 3951710, 4022031, 4288517],
           dtype='int64')

train.drop(train[train["weaponsAcquired"] >=80].index, inplace=True)
train.shape

(4444899, 38)

异常值处理：删除使用治疗药品数量异常值

train[train["heals"] >=80].index

Int64Index([4262662], dtype=‘int64’)

train.drop(train[train["heals"] >=80].index, inplace=True)
train.shape

(4444898, 38)

类别型数据处理

比赛类型one-hot处理

train["matchType"].unique()

array(['squad-fpp', 'duo', 'solo-fpp', 'squad', 'duo-fpp', 'solo',
       'normal-squad-fpp', 'crashfpp', 'flaretpp', 'normal-solo-fpp',
       'flarefpp', 'normal-duo-fpp', 'normal-duo', 'normal-squad',
       'crashtpp', 'normal-solo'], dtype=object)

train = pd.get_dummies(train, columns=["matchType"])

train.head()

	Id	groupId	matchId	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	...	matchType_normal-duo	matchType_normal-duo-fpp	matchType_normal-solo	matchType_normal-solo-fpp	matchType_normal-squad	matchType_normal-squad-fpp	matchType_solo	matchType_solo-fpp	matchType_squad	matchType_squad-fpp
0	7f96b2f878858a	4d4b580de459be	a10357fd1a4a91	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	60	...	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
1	eef90569b9d03c	684d5656442f9e	aeb375fc57110c	0	0	91.47	0	0	0	57	...	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
2	1eaf90ac73de72	6a4a42c3245a74	110163d8bb94ae	1	0	68.00	0	0	0	47	...	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	4616d365dd2853	a930a9c79cd721	f1f1f4ef412d7e	0	0	32.90	0	0	0	75	...	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
4	315c96c26c9aac	de04010b3458dd	6dc8ff871e21e6	0	0	100.00	0	0	0	45	...	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0

5 rows × 53 columns

matchType_encoding = train.filter(regex="matchType")

matchType_encoding.head()

	matchType_crashfpp	matchType_crashtpp	matchType_duo	matchType_duo-fpp	matchType_flarefpp	matchType_flaretpp	matchType_normal-duo	matchType_normal-duo-fpp	matchType_normal-solo	matchType_normal-solo-fpp	matchType_normal-squad	matchType_normal-squad-fpp	matchType_solo	matchType_solo-fpp	matchType_squad	matchType_squad-fpp
0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0

对groupId,matchId等数据进行处理

train["groupId"].head()

0    4d4b580de459be
1    684d5656442f9e
2    6a4a42c3245a74
3    a930a9c79cd721
4    de04010b3458dd
Name: groupId, dtype: object

# train["groupId"].astype("category")

train["groupId"] = train["groupId"].astype("category")

train["groupId_cat"] = train["groupId"].cat.codes

train["groupId_cat"].head()

0     613619
1     827616
2     843307
3    1340122
4    1757411
Name: groupId_cat, dtype: int32

train["matchId"] = train["matchId"].astype("category")
train["matchId_cat"] = train["matchId"].cat.codes
train["matchId_cat"].head()

0    30085
1    32751
2     3143
3    45260
4    20531
Name: matchId_cat, dtype: int32

train.head()

	Id	groupId	matchId	assists	boosts	damageDealt	DBNOs	headshotKills	heals	killPlace	...	matchType_normal-solo	matchType_normal-solo-fpp	matchType_normal-squad	matchType_normal-squad-fpp	matchType_solo	matchType_solo-fpp	matchType_squad	matchType_squad-fpp	groupId_cat	matchId_cat
0	7f96b2f878858a	4d4b580de459be	a10357fd1a4a91	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	60	...	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	613619	30085
1	eef90569b9d03c	684d5656442f9e	aeb375fc57110c	0	0	91.47	0	0	0	57	...	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	827616	32751
2	1eaf90ac73de72	6a4a42c3245a74	110163d8bb94ae	1	0	68.00	0	0	0	47	...	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	843307	3143
3	4616d365dd2853	a930a9c79cd721	f1f1f4ef412d7e	0	0	32.90	0	0	0	75	...	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1340122	45260
4	315c96c26c9aac	de04010b3458dd	6dc8ff871e21e6	0	0	100.00	0	0	0	45	...	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1757411	20531

5 rows × 55 columns

train.drop(["groupId", "matchId"], axis=1, inplace=True)

数据截取

取部分数据进行使用（100000）

df_sample = train.sample(100000)

df_sample.shape

(100000, 53)

确定特征值和目标值

df = df_sample.drop(["winPlacePerc", "Id"], axis=1)

y = df_sample["winPlacePerc"]                

df.shape

(100000, 51)

y.shape

(100000,)

分割训练集和测试集

from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

X_train, X_valid, y_train, y_valid = train_test_split(df, y, test_size=0.2)

X_train.shape

(80000, 51)

y_train.shape

(80000,)

机器学习（模型训练）和评估

from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error

使用随机森林对模型进行训练

初步使用随机森林进行模型训练

m1 = RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators=40, 
                           min_samples_leaf=3, 
                           max_features='sqrt',
                           n_jobs=-1)

m1.fit(X_train, y_train)

RandomForestRegressor(bootstrap=True, ccp_alpha=0.0, criterion='mse',
                      max_depth=None, max_features='sqrt', max_leaf_nodes=None,
                      max_samples=None, min_impurity_decrease=0.0,
                      min_impurity_split=None, min_samples_leaf=3,
                      min_samples_split=2, min_weight_fraction_leaf=0.0,
                      n_estimators=40, n_jobs=-1, oob_score=False,
                      random_state=None, verbose=0, warm_start=False)

y_pre = m1.predict(X_valid)
m1.score(X_valid, y_valid)

0.907159951456783

mean_absolute_error(y_valid, y_pre)

0.06647584387091089

再次使用随机森林，进行模型训练

m1.feature_importances_

array([1.87658119e-03, 8.63746064e-02, 2.57685962e-02, 2.27532062e-03,
       8.80290888e-04, 2.81013428e-02, 2.35573150e-01, 2.07083462e-03,
       1.22714874e-02, 1.09702183e-02, 2.53353780e-02, 1.03767737e-02,
       6.77020063e-03, 7.45172312e-03, 4.28638708e-03, 3.28563034e-03,
       2.12925123e-02, 1.99967979e-05, 3.98400033e-03, 1.36372746e-04,
       1.32592980e-04, 1.71940999e-01, 4.20790087e-02, 2.52040557e-03,
       6.33213818e-03, 7.30402941e-03, 1.11477263e-02, 7.52171932e-03,
       1.19465432e-02, 5.30382552e-02, 1.81348675e-01, 0.00000000e+00,
       2.22747761e-03, 3.44612223e-05, 0.00000000e+00, 2.02507233e-04,
       5.97533128e-04, 0.00000000e+00, 0.00000000e+00, 0.00000000e+00,
       3.54286394e-05, 0.00000000e+00, 4.94182811e-07, 0.00000000e+00,
       3.11300574e-04, 1.93840925e-04, 9.02659739e-04, 1.04955041e-03,
       9.87217660e-04, 4.53628891e-03, 4.50774311e-03])

imp_df = pd.DataFrame({"cols":df.columns, "imp":m1.feature_importances_})

imp_df.head()

	cols	imp
0	assists	0.001877
1	boosts	0.086375
2	damageDealt	0.025769
3	DBNOs	0.002275
4	headshotKills	0.000880

imp_df = imp_df.sort_values("imp", ascending=False)

imp_df.head()

	cols	imp
6	killPlace	0.235573
30	totalDistance	0.181349
21	walkDistance	0.171941
1	boosts	0.086375
29	healsandboosts	0.053038

imp_df[:20].plot("cols", "imp", figsize=(20, 8), kind="barh")

to_keep = imp_df[imp_df.imp > 0.005].cols

to_keep.shape

(20,)

df_keep = df[to_keep]

X_train, X_valid, y_train, y_valid = train_test_split(df_keep, y, test_size=0.2)

X_train.shape

(80000, 20)

m2 = RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators=40, 
                           min_samples_leaf=3, 
                           max_features='sqrt',
                           n_jobs=-1)

m2.fit(X_train, y_train)

RandomForestRegressor(bootstrap=True, ccp_alpha=0.0, criterion='mse',
                      max_depth=None, max_features='sqrt', max_leaf_nodes=None,
                      max_samples=None, min_impurity_decrease=0.0,
                      min_impurity_split=None, min_samples_leaf=3,
                      min_samples_split=2, min_weight_fraction_leaf=0.0,
                      n_estimators=40, n_jobs=-1, oob_score=False,
                      random_state=None, verbose=0, warm_start=False)

y_pre = m2.predict(X_valid)
m2.score(X_valid, y_valid)

0.9125654968172906

mean_absolute_error(y_valid, y_pre)

0.06408683094647326

使用lightGBM对模型进行训练

X_train, X_valid, y_train, y_valid = train_test_split(df, y, test_size=0.2)

X_train.shape

(80000, 51)

模型初次尝试

import lightgbm as lgb

gbm = lgb.LGBMRegressor(objective="regression", num_leaves=31, learning_rate=0.05, n_estimators=20)

gbm.fit(X_train, y_train, eval_set=[(X_valid, y_valid)], eval_metric="l1", early_stopping_rounds=5)

[1]	valid_0's l1: 0.255801	valid_0's l2: 0.0863836
Training until validation scores don't improve for 5 rounds
[2]	valid_0's l1: 0.244604	valid_0's l2: 0.0792314
[3]	valid_0's l1: 0.234038	valid_0's l2: 0.072761
[4]	valid_0's l1: 0.224123	valid_0's l2: 0.0669453
[5]	valid_0's l1: 0.214716	valid_0's l2: 0.0616647
[6]	valid_0's l1: 0.205802	valid_0's l2: 0.0568409
[7]	valid_0's l1: 0.197424	valid_0's l2: 0.0525102
[8]	valid_0's l1: 0.189497	valid_0's l2: 0.0485595
[9]	valid_0's l1: 0.18208	valid_0's l2: 0.0450087
[10]	valid_0's l1: 0.175038	valid_0's l2: 0.0417809
[11]	valid_0's l1: 0.168411	valid_0's l2: 0.0388494
[12]	valid_0's l1: 0.162014	valid_0's l2: 0.0361473
[13]	valid_0's l1: 0.156139	valid_0's l2: 0.0337388
[14]	valid_0's l1: 0.150548	valid_0's l2: 0.031546
[15]	valid_0's l1: 0.145259	valid_0's l2: 0.0295381
[16]	valid_0's l1: 0.140261	valid_0's l2: 0.0277049
[17]	valid_0's l1: 0.135596	valid_0's l2: 0.0260668
[18]	valid_0's l1: 0.131269	valid_0's l2: 0.0245903
[19]	valid_0's l1: 0.127159	valid_0's l2: 0.0232428
[20]	valid_0's l1: 0.123315	valid_0's l2: 0.0220185
Did not meet early stopping. Best iteration is:
[20]	valid_0's l1: 0.123315	valid_0's l2: 0.0220185



LGBMRegressor(boosting_type='gbdt', class_weight=None, colsample_bytree=1.0,
              importance_type='split', learning_rate=0.05, max_depth=-1,
              min_child_samples=20, min_child_weight=0.001, min_split_gain=0.0,
              n_estimators=20, n_jobs=-1, num_leaves=31, objective='regression',
              random_state=None, reg_alpha=0.0, reg_lambda=0.0, silent=True,
              subsample=1.0, subsample_for_bin=200000, subsample_freq=0)

y_pre = gbm.predict(X_valid, num_iteration=gbm.best_iteration_)

mean_absolute_error(y_valid, y_pre)

0.12331524150224461

模型二次调优

from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV

estimator = lgb.LGBMRegressor(num_leaves=31)
param_grid = {
    "learning_rate":[0.01, 0.1, 1],
    "n_estimators":[40, 60, 80, 100, 200, 300]
}

gbm = GridSearchCV(estimator, param_grid, cv=5, n_jobs=-1)

gbm.fit(X_train, y_train)

GridSearchCV(cv=5, error_score=nan,
             estimator=LGBMRegressor(boosting_type='gbdt', class_weight=None,
                                     colsample_bytree=1.0,
                                     importance_type='split', learning_rate=0.1,
                                     max_depth=-1, min_child_samples=20,
                                     min_child_weight=0.001, min_split_gain=0.0,
                                     n_estimators=100, n_jobs=-1, num_leaves=31,
                                     objective=None, random_state=None,
                                     reg_alpha=0.0, reg_lambda=0.0, silent=True,
                                     subsample=1.0, subsample_for_bin=200000,
                                     subsample_freq=0),
             iid='deprecated', n_jobs=-1,
             param_grid={'learning_rate': [0.01, 0.1, 1],
                         'n_estimators': [40, 60, 80, 100, 200, 300]},
             pre_dispatch='2*n_jobs', refit=True, return_train_score=False,
             scoring=None, verbose=0)

y_pre = gbm.predict(X_valid)
mean_absolute_error(y_valid, y_pre)

0.05685004010605751

gbm.best_params_

{‘learning_rate’: 0.1, ‘n_estimators’: 300}

模型三次调优

# n_estimators

scores = []
n_estimators = [100, 300, 500, 800]

for nes in  n_estimators:
    lgbm = lgb.LGBMRegressor(boosting_type='gbdt', 
                      num_leaves=31,
                      max_depth=5,
                      learning_rate=0.1,
                      n_estimators=nes,
                      min_child_samples=20,
                      n_jobs=-1)
    
    lgbm.fit(X_train, y_train, eval_set=[(X_valid, y_valid)], eval_metric="l1", early_stopping_rounds=5)
    
    y_pre = lgbm.predict(X_valid)
    
    mae = mean_absolute_error(y_valid, y_pre)
    
    scores.append(mae)
    print("本次结果输出的mae值是:\n", mae)

本次结果输出的mae值是:
0.0566209902947507

plt.plot(n_estimators,scores,'o-')
plt.ylabel("mae")
plt.xlabel("n_estimator")
print("best n_estimator {}".format(n_estimators[np.argmin(scores)]))

best n_estimator 500

# max_depth

scores = []
max_depth = [3, 5, 7, 9, 11]

for md in  max_depth:
    lgbm = lgb.LGBMRegressor(boosting_type='gbdt', 
                      num_leaves=31,
                      max_depth=md,
                      learning_rate=0.1,
                      n_estimators=500,
                      min_child_samples=20,
                      n_jobs=-1)
    
    lgbm.fit(X_train, y_train, eval_set=[(X_valid, y_valid)], eval_metric="l1", early_stopping_rounds=5)
    
    y_pre = lgbm.predict(X_valid)
    
    mae = mean_absolute_error(y_valid, y_pre)
    
    scores.append(mae)
    print("本次结果输出的mae值是:\n", mae)

本次结果输出的mae值是:
0.0571923061736829

plt.plot(max_depth,scores,'o-')
plt.ylabel("mae")
plt.xlabel("max_depths")
print("best max_depths {}".format(max_depth[np.argmin(scores)]))

best max_depths 5

scores

[0.058867698663447106,
0.0566209902947507,
0.05695850296967709,
0.057414793402343275,
0.0571923061736829]