A man speaks truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports it to be a 6. What is the probabili

转自： https://in.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110717224242AAhu50E

P[6 rolled & reports as 6 ] = 1/6 * 3/4 = 1/8
P[non-6 & reports as 6] = 5/6 * 1/4 = 5/24
P[reported as a 6 ] = 1/8 + 5/24 = 1/3

P[6 rolled | reported as 6] = P[6 roled & reports as 6] / P[reports as 6]
= [1/8] / [1/3] = 3/8 <----------