# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
from collections import defaultdict
states = ("Rainy", "Sunny")
observations = ("Walk", "Shop", "Walk", "Shop", "Clean", "Walk", "Shop", "Walk")
start_probability = {"Rainy": 0.6, "Sunny": 0.4}
transition_probability = {
"Rainy": {"Rainy": 0.7, "Sunny": 0.3},
"Sunny": {"Rainy": 0.4, "Sunny": 0.6},
}
emission_probability = {
"Rainy": {"Walk": 0.1, "Shop": 0.4, "Clean": 0.5},
"Sunny": {"Walk": 0.6, "Shop": 0.3, "Clean": 0.1},
}
# 利用动态规划求解最佳路径
def compute(obs, states, start_p, trans_p, emit_p):
# [{}, {}, {}] 长度与obs相同, 保存每条观测路径上面的各种天气的最佳概率
v = [{} for _ in range(len(obs))]
# {"state1": [], "state2": []} 长度与states 相同
path = defaultdict(list)
for state in states:
v[0][state] = start_p[state] * emit_p[state][obs[0]]
#path[state] = ["" for _ in range(len(obs))]
path[state].append(state)
print(path)
# 以时间循环,从第一天开始循环
for t in range(1, len(obs)):
print("========================================")
print(obs[t])
# y1表示的是晴天还是下雨
for y1 in states : # 从path中取路径,作为上一个开始的路径
max_prob = -1
# print(v[t-1]){'Rainy': 0.06, 'Sunny': 0.24}
# v[t-1]表示上一天是晴天还是雨天以及概率
for y0 in v[t-1]:
print(y0)
# 前一天的天气概率X转移概率X发射概率
nprob = v[t - 1][y0] * trans_p[y0][y1] * emit_p[y1][obs[t]]
if nprob > max_prob:
# 暂时记录到y1状态节点最后的概率
max_prob = nprob
# 暂时记录到y1状态节点的上一个y0节点
max_state = y0
# 保存到当前的y1状态的最好的概率值
v[t][y1] = max_prob
# 到上一条路径与当前的y1链接起来,作为y1状态的最好路径
newpath = []
for state1 in path[max_state]:
newpath.append(state1)
newpath.append(y1)
path[y1] = newpath
# 寻找最终概率最大的路径
prob = -1
for y1 in states :
if v[len(obs) - 1][y1] > prob:
prob = v[len(obs) - 1][y1]
state = y1
# 返回路径最大的路径
return path[state]
if __name__ == "__main__":
max_path = compute(observations, states, start_probability,
transition_probability, emission_probability)
for state in max_path :
print(state)
核心还是
前一天的天气概率X转移概率X发射概率
nprob = v[t - 1][y0] * trans_p[y0][y1] * emit_p[y1][obs[t]]