43 Forecasting Methods

 

Forecasting Methods

预测方法

There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.

有几种不同的方法，可以用来建立一个预测。该方法预报员选择取决于预测者的经验，提供的信息量的预报，难度水平的预测情况的介绍，和一定程度的准确性和信心的预测。

The first of these methods is the persistence method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degrees today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.

第一是这些方法的持续性方法；最简单的方式制作天气预报。持续性方法假定条件的时候，预测将不会改变。例如，如果是晴天，今天87度，持续性方法预测，这将是晴朗和87度的明天。如果今天的降雨量是2英寸，持续性方法将预测2英寸，明天有雨。然而，如果天气状况一天天地显著变化，持续性方法通常崩溃并不是最好的预测方法的使用。

The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information, the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well.

趋势性方法包括确定锋运动的速度和方向，高、低压的中心和地区，云和降水。利用此信息，预报员能预测他或她希望那些在将来某个时间。例如，如果一个风暴系统以西1000英里的位置和移动的东部250英里每一天，运用趋势性方法，你能预测它到达你所在的地区在4天。趋势性方法运作良好时，系统继续运行在相同的速度在同一方向的很长一段时间。如果他们减速，速度，变化强度，或改变方向，趋势预测可能会不一样。

The climatology method is another simple way of producinga forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail.

气候学方法是另一种简单的方法producinga预测。这种方法涉及平均天气统计累积多年做预测。例如，如果你用气候学方法来预测天气的纽约市在七月四日，你会经历所有的天气数据记录，平均每年的七月四日。气候学方法只有当天气模式相似，预计一年时间的选择。如果模式是相当不寻常的一年时间，气候学方法通常会失败。

The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today’s forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very uforecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations as they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.

模拟法是一种较为复杂，制作天气预报的方法。它包括测量今天的天气状况和回忆过去某一天当天气状况非常uforecast将同样的表现一如既往。模拟方法难以使用，因为它几乎是不可能找到一个预测模拟。不同的天气特征很少使自己在同一地点，他们在过去的时间。即使是小规模的差异之间的当前时间和模拟可以导致非常不同的结果。