IB9150 Forecasting for Decision Makers

University of Warwick
Module Code: IB9150 Module Title: Forecasting for Decision Makers
School Year: 2023-24
Individual Assignment Question and Guidance
3,000 words:
This is a strict limit, not a guideline: any piece submitted with more words than the limit will
result in the excess not being marked. Note: any +10% word limit rule that may be applied in
other modules is not applicable here.
You are asked to analyse market size growth and market share prospects of a consumer brand
within a specific country, including an analysis of the country’s growth prospects.
As part of your research, you should download data from Passport/Euromonitor (library link:
http://webcat.warwick.ac.uk/record=e1000180~S1). See pre-recorded video on module page
Day 1.
(1) Choose first the country you would like to focus your analysis on. You are not allowed to
choose a country you are a citizen of. At the country level, download data on past annual
economic growth (real GDP growth), including forecasts up to 2028, by selecting
“economies”, “economy, finance and trade”, and “real GDP growth”, and then search for
the country you are interested in. Download data for the longest time series available.
Your analysis may be supported by the country reports available under “analysis” on the
“economies” “economy, finance and trade” tab.
(2) Your next choice is to choose an industry in the “industries” tab (say alcoholic drinks
under drinks).
(3) Then select a “category”, “geography”, and “statistic” in the “explore statistics” tab (as,
for example, “Beer, Germany, market size”). There are two main time series you should
focus your analysis on. The first one is a measure of the market size for your choice of
country/industry/category, usually measured as retail value RSP in local currency at
constant prices (headline units are in volume or dollars, but you are able to see the
values in local currency at constant prices on downloaded report data). You should use
the longest time series available and store five years of forecasts. The second time series
is the brand share for a specific brand (change the statistic option to “brand shares”). A
suggestion is to use the “country report” for your “category” and “geography” under
“explore analysis” in the industries tab to pick a brand with a reasonably large market
share (as, for example, “Krombacher”, which is a brand within “Beer in Germany”). The
database allows you to download the market share for the brand over the last ten years.
You should also consider alternative sources of information on the brand you have
chosen such that you have enough information to carry out an in-depth analysis of the
prospects of the brand for the next five years.
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The essay should include:
1) An analysis of economic growth forecasts over the next five years (2024-2028) for the
country you chose. You should provide your own forecasts, including an explanation of
how you computed them, why you choose that method and comparison with available
alternatives (including those from Passport/Euromonitor but also with other
professional and institutional forecasts). You should consider sources of uncertainty
when calculating and analysing forecasts.
2) An analysis of market size forecasts (total sales for the industry/category chosen) over
the next five years. You should compute your own forecasts, including an explanation of
how you compute them, and why you choose that method. Discuss them compared to
Passport/Euromonitor forecasts. You should consider sources of uncertainty when
calculating and analysing forecasts.
3) An analysis of how the prospects for the market share of the brand you are analysing is
expected to evolve in the next five years. The analysis should include quantitative
forecasts for the brand market share and make use of your previous analysis (items 1
and 2) to support a reflection on the uncertainties facing the brand.
Your essay should be well-structured (divided into sections, including an introduction, conclusion
and references) and show that you can provide forecasts and analysis of sources of uncertainty
to support a clear vision of the five-year outlook of a consumer brand in a country of your choice.
Maximum Length: 3000 words (this is a strict limit, not a guideline)
Assessment Weighting: 80%
Submission Deadline: Thursday 20th June before 12:00:00 (noon, UK time)
Marks Released by: Thursday 18th July
(we will aim to release marks by this date, but in the event of an unavoidable
delay a message will be posted on the module page)
Use of Artificial Intelligence
The University recognises an increasing number of technologies such as Artificial Intelligence and that
they may be applicable in your completing this assessment. The assessment brief sets out specific
requirements or restrictions, and your student handbook has further guidance and advice.
You are reminded that the inappropriate use of such a technology may constitute a breach of University
policy, such as the Proofreading Policy or Regulation 11 (Academic Integrity). If you breach these policies,
it may have significant consequences for your studies. Please make sure you read and understand the
assessment brief and how AI may or may not be used.
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You should ensure you include an assignment cover sheet which requires you to explain the use of any
AI. Failure to disclose at the point of submission may be prejudicial in any later investigations should they
arise.
For this assessment, AI is:
PROBHIBITED OR RESTRICTED
Please select the most appropriate text for your purposes.
You MUST NOT use any generative Artificial Intelligence in this assessment unless specifically authorised
for reasonable adjustments. You MAY use non-generative tools such as a spell-check, basic grammar
check (non-generative), calculator or similar. If you have any doubts about a tool or service you plan to
use please contact the module leader.
Submitting your work
Before you submit your assessment, you should ensure you are familiar with the guidance and rules
in the “Your Assessments” section of your Student Handbook, paying particular attention to:
 Inserting a completed assignment coversheet as the first page of your submission
 Academic Integrity (including Plagiarism)
 Referencing
 Word Count Policy and Formatting
 Confidentiality of your work
 Extensions and late submission of work
 Guidelines for Online Submission
Mitigating Circumstances
Mitigating circumstances MUST be submitted within 20 working days following the submission
deadline. Mitigating circumstances not submitted by the relevant deadline are not required to be
considered by the School/Department and may have to be considered by an Academic Appeals
Committee as part of an academic appeal – for further information, please see:
Please see your Student Handbook for more guidance on mitigating circumstances