Software ate the world…now what?
软件吞噬了世界……现在呢？
It’s been nearly 10 years since Marc Andreessen published his iconic “Why Software Is Eating the World,” arguing why he and his eponymous VC firm Andreessen-Horowitz believed we were in the midst of a “dramatic and broad technological and economic shift in which software companies are poised to take over large swathes of the economy,” despite pundits referencing the dotcom crash to label tech as another dangerous new bubble. Andreessen’s theory stood the test of time, and a decade later, it’s safe to say that software ate the world. From the dominance of so-called FAMANG (Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Netflix, Google) companies to the continued rise of mobile and cloud computing, software and tech have disrupted every facet of our lives.
自马克·安德森(Marc Andreessen)发布他的标志性著作《 为什么软件在吃世界 》以来已经有将近10年的时间，他争辩说，为什么他和他的同名风险投资公司安德森·霍洛维茨(Andreessen-Horowitz)认为我们正处于“软件发生剧烈而广泛的技术和经济变革之中”公司已经准备好接管大片的经济领域，”尽管有权威人士称互联网泡沫破裂将科技标签为另一个危险的新泡沫。 安德森的理论经受住了时间的考验，十年后，可以肯定地说，软件吞噬了整个世界。 从所谓的FAMANG(Facebook，苹果，微软，亚马逊，Netflix，Google)公司的统治地位到移动和云计算的持续兴起，软件和技术已经破坏了我们生活的方方面面。
More recently, the historic downfall of WeWork and a slew of tech IPO struggles (e.g. Uber, Lyft, SmileDirectClub) combined with the tech backlash over concerns of privacy, employment issues within the gig economy, and the toxic nature of social media shifted the narrative on what “software eating the world” meant in a broader sense. Benedict Evans summarized it perfectly on his presentation, “Tech and the new normal,” positing that:
最近， WeWork的历史性倒闭和一系列的技术IPO斗争 (例如Uber，Lyft，SmileDirectClub)，加上对隐私问题，零工经济中的就业问题以及社交媒体的有毒性质的技术反弹，使叙事发生了变化从更广泛的意义上讲“软件吞噬世界”的含义。 本尼迪克特·埃文斯(Benedict Evans)在他的演讲“ 技术与新常态 ”中完美地总结了这一点， 并认为：
Software ate the world.
软件吞噬了世界。
So all the world’s problems get expressed in software.
因此，世界上所有的问题都可以通过软件表达出来。
The end of Silicon Valley idealism was punctuated with the unprecedented spread of COVID-19. Even Andreessen published a new essay, “It’s Time to Build,” reflecting on the institutional failures to respond to the coronavirus pandemic.
硅谷唯心主义的终结因 COVID-19的空前传播而中断。 甚至安德森(Andreessen)也发表了一篇新文章，《 建立的时机 》，反映了应对冠状病毒大流行的机构失灵。
So what’s next?
下一个是什么？
As an engineer working in tech, my views on the larger impacts on tech are limited at best. For those discussions, I’ll direct you to more eloquent pieces, particularly Alex Danco’s “Progress, Postmodernism and the Tech Backlash” and Ben Thompson’s “Media, Regulators, and Big Tech; Indulgences and Injunctions; Better Approaches.” Instead, this post is my understanding of the general trends in tech and the combining of ideas I’ve read online with my personal experiences to postulate on what happens next.
作为从事技术工作的工程师，我对技术的更大影响的观点充其量是有限的。 对于这些讨论，我将指导您一些更有说服力的作品，特别是Alex Danco的“ 进步，后现代主义和技术反弹 ”和Ben Thompson的“ 媒体，监管机构和大技术”。 放纵和禁令； 更好的方法 。” 相反，这篇文章是我对技术的总体趋势的理解，以及我在网上阅读的思想与我的个人经验的结合，以推测接下来发生的事情。
一切如代码 (Everything as Code)
In the era of COVID-19, the shift to the cloud accelerated by necessity. In fact, Microsoft saw “two years’ worth of digital transformation in two months,” according to CEO Satya Nadella during April’s quarterly earnings report. As more enterprise companies migrate to the cloud or embrace a hybrid architecture, the movement towards Everything as Code grew as the need to manage and operate complex cloud architecture intensified. While the cloud giants commoditized the infrastructure layer as a service, the proliferation of microservices and modular components increased the complexity of operating a modern software stack.
在COVID-19时代，向云的迁移因必要而加速。 实际上，根据首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉(Satya Nadella)在4月份的季度收益报告中所说，微软在“ 两个月内实现了两年的数字化转型 ”。 随着越来越多的企业公司迁移到云或采用混合体系结构，随着管理和操作复杂云体系结构的需求的增加， 随着代码的发展， 一切都朝着一切方向发展。 尽管云巨头将基础设施层作为一种服务商品化，但微服务和模块化组件的激增增加了操作现代软件堆栈的复杂性。
Everything as Code is an approach to defining and managing the ops-related layer through code so that we can treat it as another piece of software. The idea began with Infrastructure as Code (IaC), which Martin Fowler laid out in his 2016 blog post as a means to use source code to “allow auditability and reproducible builds, subject to testing practices, and the full discipline of continuous delivery.” This idea grew to other aspects in DevOps:
“一切都作为代码”是一种通过代码定义和管理与操作相关的层的方法，因此我们可以将其视为另一软件。 这个想法始于基础设施即代码(IaC)，马丁·福勒(Martin Fowler)在其2016年的博客文章中将其作为使用源代码“ 允许可审核性和可再现性的构建，并受测试实践和连续交付的全面约束 ”的一种手段。 这个想法发展到了DevOps的其他方面：
Infrastructure as Code: Terraform
基础设施即代码 ： Terraform
Orchestration as Code: Kubernetes, Docker Swarm
编排为代码 ： Kubernetes ， Docker Swarm
Data Pipeline as Code: Airflow
数据管道为代码 ： 气流
The list goes on for related tools to manage the workflows built on top of this ecosystem. As Seth Vargo points out in his presentation, Everything as Code had the following advantages in managing operational complexity:
该列表会继续列出用于管理在此生态系统之上构建的工作流的相关工具。 正如Seth Vargo在演讲中所指出的那样，“一切都作为代码”在管理操作复杂性方面具有以下优势：
- Linting, static analysis, and alerting 整理，静态分析和警报
- Testing 测试中
- Create a common language for DevOps 为DevOps创建通用语言
- Separation of concerns 关注点分离
- Model abstract concepts 模型抽象概念
- Apply development concepts into DevOps 将开发概念应用于DevOps
Up to this point, I view the progress in Everything as Code as commoditizing infrastructure (e.g. Kubernetes for container orchestration, Istio for networking) and reducing human error by automating workflows (e.g. CI/CD, GitOps). One trend to look out for in the future is AIOps: using artificial intelligence to automate workflows. Perhaps the ultimate goal in Everything as Code is to eliminate human operator intervention by automatically healing broken applications, detecting anomalies, and patching vulnerabilities. The obvious starting point is automated log analysis and anomaly detection perhaps at the distributed tracing level. We can already see companies in the log/monitoring vertical (e.g. Splunk, Datadog, New Relic) move into this space. The next plausible candidate in my mind is automated security (i.e. DevSecOps). Moving beyond static analysis and vulnerability scanning, will there be a tool or a system to automatically patch security issues by software? Google Cloud’s IAM recommendation is an interesting example, but can that be applied to a broader ecosystem?
到目前为止，我将“一切都以代码形式”的进展视为基础设施的商品化(例如，用于容器编排的Kubernetes，用于网络的Istio)并通过自动化工作流(例如，CI / CD，GitOps)来减少人为错误。 未来值得关注的一种趋势是AIOps：使用人工智能使工作流程自动化。 一切都作为代码的最终目标也许是通过自动修复损坏的应用程序，检测异常并修补漏洞来消除人工干预。 显而易见的起点是自动日志分析和异常检测，也许是在分布式跟踪级别。 我们已经可以看到在日志/监视领域的公司(例如Splunk ， Datadog ， New Relic )进入了这个领域。 在我看来，下一个可行的候选方案是自动安全性(即DevSecOps )。 除了静态分析和漏洞扫描之外，是否会有工具或系统可以通过软件自动修补安全问题？ Google Cloud的IAM建议是一个有趣的示例，但是可以将其应用于更广泛的生态系统吗？
无代码/低代码 (No Code / Low Code)
On the other side of Everything as Code, we have the rise of no-code or low-code development tools. The competition intensified when AWS announced the entry into this field with the beta launch of Amazon Honeycode to build web and mobile apps without writing code. Amazon Honeycode joins a growing ecosystem of no-code or low-code companies in various verticals:
在“将一切作为代码”的另一面，我们出现了无代码或低代码开发工具。 当AWS通过Amazon Honeycode的Beta版发布宣布进入该领域时，竞争加剧了，而无需编写代码即可构建Web和移动应用程序。 Amazon Honeycode加入了各个领域的无代码或低代码公司的不断发展的生态系统：
AI: C3, Lobe, Obviously AI
Ecommerce: Shopify, WooCommerce
电子商务 ： Shopify ， WooCommerce
Games: Buildbox, Dreamcraft, Koji
游戏 ： Buildbox ， Dreamcraft ， Koji
Newsletter: Substack
时事通讯 ：子堆栈
Web: Bubble, Carrd, Sheet2Site, Webflow
网址 ： Bubble ， Carrd ， Sheet2Site ， Webflow
The term “no-code” is polarizing in the development communities. To some, the notion of no-code conveys the undertone that “code” is the problem, and providing “dumbed-down, click-and-drag” tools for millions of “non-technical” users is a step in the wrong direction. The two most common arguments I hear against no-code is that (1) it’s nothing new (previous attempts at eliminating code have all failed) and (2) it’s not productive to artificially constrain creators to the limits of no-code tools vs. empowering users to learn to code as it is easier than ever to do so.
“无代码”一词在开发社区中是两极分化的。 在某些情况下，“无代码”的概念传达了“代码”是问题的底蕴，为数百万“非技术”用户提供“向下，单击并拖动”工具是朝错误方向迈出的一步。 我听到的关于无代码的两个最常见的论点是：(1) 并不是什么新鲜事物 (先前消除代码的尝试都失败了)，(2) 人为地将创建者限制在无代码工具 vs.使用户能够学习编码，这比以往任何时候都容易。
Setting aside the charged word for a minute, these no-code and low-code platforms can and do provide tremendous value for non-programmers and programmers alike. Obviously, there are tradeoffs to using an opinionated tool, and the nascent ecosystem means that functionality may be limited. However, it removes the barrier of learning to code to get started, while simultaneously creating a new ecosystem for those with the expertise to extend the product and make it useful. Take Shopify’s explosive growth as an example. Shopify commoditized the infrastructure needed to build an ecommerce website. Now anyone can start selling online, and we have Shopify specialists and a growing catalog of Shopify apps and integration to complete the ecosystem.
这些无代码和低代码平台撇开收费单词一分钟，可以而且确实为非程序员和程序员提供巨大的价值。 显然，在使用有目的的工具时需要权衡取舍，而新生的生态系统意味着功能可能受到限制。 但是，它消除了学习编码入门的障碍，同时为具有专业知识的人创建了一个新的生态系统来扩展产品并使其有用。 以Shopify的爆炸性增长为例。 Shopify将构建电子商务网站所需的基础设施商品化。 现在，任何人都可以开始在线销售，我们有Shopify专家以及不断增长的Shopify应用程序目录和集成来完善生态系统。
Yet there is some truth to the criticisms. The goal isn’t removing code, because it’s the problem. It’s removing the barriers and automating away the mundane (similar to Everything as Code) to get the job done better. There is some validity to concerns of vendor lock-in and portability but in general, I view this movement as a complementary piece as laid out in Dani Grant and Nick Grossman's “The Myth of The Infrastructure Phase”:
但是批评还有些道理。 目标不是删除代码，因为这是问题所在。 它消除了障碍，并自动消除了平凡的事物(类似于“代码中的一切”)，以更好地完成工作。 关于供应商锁定和可移植性的担忧是有一定道理的，但是总的来说，我将这一运动视为Dani Grant和尼克·格罗斯曼(Nick Grossman)的“ 基础设施阶段的神话 ”中的补充部分：
A common narrative in the Web 3.0 community is that we are in an infrastructure phase and the right thing to be working on right now is building out that infrastructure: better base chains, better interchain interoperability, better clients, wallets and browsers. The rationale is: first we need tools that make it easy to build and use apps that run on blockchains, and once we have those tools, then we can get started building those apps.
Web 3.0社区中的一个常见说法是，我们处于基础架构阶段，现在正在努力进行的正确工作是建立该基础架构：更好的基础链，更好的链间互操作性，更好的客户端，钱包和浏览器。 理由是：首先，我们需要能够轻松构建和使用在区块链上运行的应用程序的工具，一旦有了这些工具，便可以开始构建这些应用程序。
Our hypothesis is that this is not actually how things play out. We are not in an infrastructure phase, but rather in another turn of the apps-infrastructure cycle. And in fact, the history of new technologies shows that apps beget infrastructure, not the other way around. It’s not that first we build all the infrastructure, and once we have the infrastructure we need, we begin to build apps. It’s exactly the opposite.
我们的假设是，这实际上并不是事情的结果。 我们不在基础架构阶段，而是在应用程序基础架构周期的另一轮转变中。 实际上，新技术的历史表明，应用会产生基础设施，而不是相反。 并不是说我们首先构建了所有基础架构，一旦有了所需的基础架构，我们便开始构建应用程序。 恰恰相反。
First, apps inspire infrastructure. Then that infrastructure enables new apps.
首先，应用激发了基础设施。 然后，该基础架构将启用新的应用程序。
I’m particularly interested in seeing what applications we will see (and the ensuing infrastructure improvements) in machine learning and artificial intelligence space. Along with crypto, AI and ML have been touted as the next phase of the digital transformation, but adoption has been slow. We have amazing progress on frameworks (e.g. Tensorflow, PyTorch), hardware (e.g. Nvidia, TPUs), and research, yet it’s still difficult for enterprise companies to build a time-series forecasting model or an end-to-end data pipeline without a data science team.
我特别想知道我们将在机器学习和人工智能领域看到哪些应用程序(以及随之而来的基础架构改进)。 与加密技术一起，AI和ML被吹捧为数字化转型的下一阶段，但采用速度很慢。 我们在框架(例如Tensorflow，PyTorch)，硬件(例如Nvidia，TPU)和研究方面取得了惊人的进步，但是对于企业公司来说，建立时间序列预测模型或没有数据中心的端到端数据管道仍然很困难数据科学团队。
If we group AutoML with other low-code platforms in the data science space as the core infrastructure pieces, what new apps are now enabled? Consequently, what new infrastructure will those apps inspire?
如果我们将AutoML与数据科学领域中的其他低代码平台作为核心基础架构进行分组，那么现在启用了哪些新应用程序？ 因此，这些应用程序将激发什么新的基础架构？
环境计算 (Ambient Computing)
I may be biased since I work in IoT, but ambient computing is the inevitable, natural progression in the evolution of computing. The history of computing can be characterized by several paradigm shifts. First, there were mainframes from IBM. Then came Microsoft and its Windows OS, riding on the coattails of the PC revolution. Google seized the opportunity on the web, followed by mobile along with Apple’s introduction of the iPhone. While Amazon missed the mobile revolution, it ushered in a new era of cloud computing with AWS.
自从我从事物联网工作以来，我可能会有偏见，但是环境计算是计算发展中不可避免的自然发展。 计算的历史可以通过几种范式转移来表征。 首先，有来自IBM的大型机。 随后，微软及其Windows操作系统紧随PC革命而来。 谷歌抓住了网络上的机会，随后是移动设备以及苹果公司推出了iPhone。 尽管亚马逊错过了移动革命，但它开创了使用AWS进行云计算的新时代。
So what comes after the cloud? Fog? The answer may lie in Google Senior Vice President of Devices and Service Rick Osterloh’s opening remarks from Made by Google 19 keynote:
那么云之后会发生什么呢？ 多雾路段？ 答案可能就在于Google设备与服务高级副总裁里克·奥斯特洛(Rick Osterloh)在“ Made by Google 19”主题演讲中的开幕词：
In the mobile era, smartphones changed the world. It’s super useful to have a powerful computer everywhere you are. But it’s even more useful when computing is anywhere you need it, always available to help. Now you heard me talk about this idea with Baratunde, that helpful computing can be all around you — ambient computing. Your devices work together with services and AI, so help is anywhere you want it, and it’s fluid. The technology just fades into the background when you don’t need it. So the devices aren’t the center of the system, you are. That’s our vision for ambient computing.
在移动时代，智能手机改变了世界。 在任何地方都拥有功能强大的计算机非常有用。 但是，在您需要计算的任何地方，它总是有用的，它甚至会更加有用。 现在，您听到我与Baratunde谈论这个想法的时候， 有用的计算可以随处可见-环境计算 。 您的设备可与服务和AI协同工作，因此帮助随处可见，而且瞬息万变。 不需要时，该技术就会淡出背景。 因此，设备不是系统的中心。 这就是我们对环境计算的愿景 。
The other terminology I’ve seen used is frictionless computing. The promise of IoT is to unlock the value in traditionally siloed data via ambient computing. Once we move past the technical challenge with new IoT connectivity, whether its low-power, wide-area networks (LPWAN) for remote monitoring or high-speed, streaming use cases on private LTE networks, we will see a proliferation of bundled apps leveraging new streams of data.
我见过的另一种术语是无摩擦计算 。 物联网的承诺是通过环境计算释放传统孤立数据中的价值。 一旦我们克服了新的物联网连接带来的技术挑战，无论是用于远程监控的低功耗，广域网(LPWAN)还是专用LTE网络上的高速流使用案例，我们都将看到捆绑应用程序的大量使用新的数据流。
The big question will be who captures the most opportunity in the value chain? Looking at other tech trends (e.g. autonomous vehicles, clean energy, AR/VR), will the next dominant company be a platform connecting the pockets of data via smart contracts or the bundled app transforming our interactions with everyday objects? Or is ambient computing just an extension of mobile where the current players continue to dominate?
最大的问题是谁会抓住价值链中最大的机会？ 看看其他技术趋势(例如自动驾驶汽车，清洁能源，AR / VR)，下一个主导公司将成为通过智能合约或捆绑应用程序连接数据口袋的平台，从而改变我们与日常物品的交互方式吗？ 还是环境计算只是移动设备的扩展，而当前的参与者仍在继续占据主导地位？
新常态 (The New Normal)
The global lockdown due to COVID-19 forced everything online and cemented the importance of tech in our lives. It accelerated existing trends for faster adoption (e.g. move to cloud computing, the rise of ecommerce, further unbundling of media) and gave us the new normal of assuming that everything and everyone is online.
由于COVID-19导致的全球封锁迫使所有事情在线上发生，并巩固了技术在我们生活中的重要性。 它加快了现有趋势，以加快采用速度(例如，迁移到云计算，电子商务的兴起，媒体的进一步捆绑销售)，并为我们提供了假设所有人都在线的新常态。
In 2020, software ate the world and surfaced new, yet familiar, trends in the tech value creation cycle in the form of Everything as Code, no-code/low-code platforms, and ambient computing. To borrow from Benedict Evans, we’re at the End of the Beginning, where tech has become central to society.
2020年，软件席卷全球，并以“一切皆有代码”，“无代码/低代码平台”和“环境计算”的形式出现了技术价值创造周期中新的但熟悉的趋势。 向本尼迪克特·埃文斯(Benedict Evans)借钱，我们正处于起步阶段，技术已成为社会的中心。
翻译自: https://medium.com/dev-genius/whats-next-for-tech-3592e7904a03
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