epl2编程指南_epl幻想gw2回顾和gw3算法精选

epl2编程指南

If this is the first time you land on one of my Fantasy EPL Blogs, you might want to check out some of our original EPL blogs in my Medium archives to get familiar with how this project started and the improvements we’ve made over time.

如果这是您第一次进入我的Fantasy EPL博客之一，那么您可能想查看我的Medium档案库中的一些原始EPL博客，以熟悉该项目的开始方式以及随着时间的推移所做的改进。

GW2的前100名FPL团队统计 (Top 100 FPL Team Stats for GW2)

Most of the Top 100 players in the world from GW2 scored above 125pts. Let’s look at the most selected players on their teams by position and the most preferred team formations.

GW2的全球前100名玩家中，大多数得分都超过125分。 让我们按职位和最喜欢的球队组成来查看他们的团队中选择最多的球员。

Top100入围人数最多的守门员 (Most Selected Goalkeepers by Top100)

百强入围者(Most Selected Defenders by Top100)

百强评选的中场球员(Most Selected Midfielders by Top100)

Top100精选击球手(Most Selected Strikers by Top100)

We used this data to create the team below which is a blend of the most selected players by Top100:

我们使用这些数据来创建下面的团队，其中包括Top100精选的球员：

前100名幻想用户选择最多的团队组成 (Most selected Team Formation by Top 100 Fantasy Users)

These stats make sense as most of the top players are trying to capitalize on offensive midfielders and strikers with 4–4–2 or 3–4–3 formations.

这些数据很有意义，因为大多数顶级球员都在尝试利用进攻中场和前锋拥有4–4–2或3–4–3阵型。

GW2团队表现总结和整体数据 (GW2 Team Performance Recap and Overall Stats)

We had all of our teams score above average, with the highest team getting 66pts. Every week, we will post a picture of our Top2 performing teams. Unfortunately, we didn’t pick good captains. We picked Bruno Fernandez because we expected there to be a penalty at the MUN-CRY game given these two teams have some of the highest stats of penalties given to them over last 5 seasons. Well, we were right about the penalty, but unfortunately for us it was for CRY and not for MUN :) And with Jorginho missing the penalty against LIV, our penalty luck was very bad last week.

我们所有的团队得分都高于平均水平，最高的团队得分为66分。 每周，我们都会发布一张我们排名前2位的表演团队的照片。 不幸的是，我们没有挑选好的上尉。 我们之所以选择布鲁诺·费尔南德斯，是因为我们预计在MUN-CRY比赛中会受到惩罚，因为这两支球队在过去5个赛季中均获得了最高罚分。 好吧，我们对处罚是正确的，但是对我们来说，这是为CRY而不是为MUN :)而且由于Jorginho错过了针对LIV的处罚，上周我们的处罚运气非常糟糕。

We also participate in the FanTeam version of the FPL, where we had our best performing team of the week. Again, not the best captain choice — Leicester scored 4 goals and Vardy was somehow not involved even in one of them. So, I’d say our luck was quite poor last week overall, but somehow we still managed to do OK.

我们还参加了FPL的FanTeam版本，这是我们本周表现最好的团队。 同样，这不是最佳的队长选择-莱斯特打进4球，而瓦尔迪以某种方式甚至没有参与其中。 因此，我想说上周总体上我们的运气很差，但还是设法做到了。

有用的统计信息，以告知我们的GW3精选 (Useful Stats to Inform our GW3 Picks)

Since we added a lot of new stats to our Algorithm this year, this Blog will evolve to have more stats and graphs and less text over time. Let’s start with the Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) for the next three game-weeks below:

由于我们今年在算法中添加了许多新的统计信息，因此随着时间的推移，此Blog将会发展为具有更多的统计信息和图表以及更少的文本。 让我们从以下接下来的三个游戏周的灯具难度等级(FDR)开始：

Looks like Arsenal, Villa, Leeds, and Newcastle have some tough games coming up, so our Algorithm might not be picking players from those teams. Wolves, Chelsea, Fulham, Man Utd and Sheffield Utd seem to have more easy schedules over the next three weeks.

看起来阿森纳，维拉，利兹和纽卡斯尔有一些艰难的比赛，所以我们的算法可能不会从那些球队中选拔球员。 狼队，切尔西队，富勒姆队，曼联队和谢菲尔德联队在接下来的三周中似乎都有更轻松的时间表。

博彩赔率 (Bookie Odds)

We will try to stack up on players from teams that have a higher than 50 % chance of winning such as MUN, CHE, WOL, LIV, TOT, MCI, and EVE. We should try not to have too many defensive players from LEI, WBA, NEW, ARS, BHA, CRY, WBA, WHU, or BUR.

我们将尝试从获胜机会超过50％的团队中选拔球员，例如MUN，CHE，WOL，LIV，TOT，MCI和EVE 。 我们应该尽量不要让LEI，WBA，NEW，ARS，BHA，CRY，WBA，WHU或BUR的防守球员太多。

Teams with higher probability to draw, especially when the game is combined with high odds for Under 2.5, might be good for selecting defensive players because if the game ends 0:0, that will result in lots of bonus points. Combined with the Under/Over Graph below, we can identify the following games with higher probability of at least one clean sheet — WHU-WOL, BUR-SOU, FUL-AVL, and SHU-LEE.

拥有较高抽奖概率的球队，尤其是当比赛与低于2.5的高赔率结合时，可能会非常适合选择防守球员，因为如果比赛以0：0结束，将获得很多加分。 结合下面的下/下图，我们可以识别出至少具有一张干净纸的较高概率的下列游戏：WHU-WOL，BUR-SOU，FUL-AVL和SHU-LEE。

Inversely, we might want to have more attacking players from games with high odds for Over 2.5 such as MCI vs. LEI, LIV vs. ARS, WBA vs. CHE, and TOT vs. NEW. Again, the odds from last week played out pretty well as most games predicted had over 2.5 goals!

反过来说，我们可能希望在高赔率超过2.5的游戏中吸引更多进攻玩家，例如MCI对阵LEI，LIV对阵ARS，WBA对阵CHE，以及TOT对阵NEW。 同样，上周的赔率很好，因为大多数比赛预测的进球数超过2.5个！

裁判统计 (Referee Stats)

From the stats below it appears that there is a higher chance for penalty given in games: CRY-EVE, WBA-CHE, TOT-NEW, MCI-LEI and LIV-ARS, so we recommend having penalty takers for some of these teams. Looks, like the games CRY-EVE and SHU-LEE have refs that like to give a lot of cards, so expect to lose some points there from yellow cards, but hopefully no red…

从下面的统计数据来看，似乎在比赛中被罚点球的机会更高： CRY-EVE，WBA-CHE，TOT-NEW，MCI-LEI和LIV-ARS ，因此我们建议其中一些球队有点球手。 看起来，就像CRY-EVE和SHU-LEE游戏中的裁判喜欢给很多纸牌，因此希望从黄牌那里丢掉一些积分，但希望不会有红色……

套装取件器 (Set Piece Takers)

To help your choice of set piece takers please see the list below which is more or less up-to-date with a couple of doubtful predictions:

为了帮助您选择接拍者，请参见以下列表，该列表或多或少是最新的，并且有一些令人怀疑的预测：

预计首发阵容 (Projected Starting Lineups)

Before we run our final team selector, let’s take into account the predicted starting 11 for each team.

在运行最终的团队选择器之前，让我们考虑每个团队的预期开始11。

Pay attention to the doubtful player names on the right and also the the most recent injury news updates below:

请注意右侧令人怀疑的球员名称，以及以下最新的伤病新闻：

预测模型(玩家统计) (Predictive Models (Player Stats))

It’s time for the crown jewel of this year’s improved Algorithm — the predicted player stats. After we layer in all the FDR, bookie coefficient, ref starts, projected lineups and injuries, there are two major metrics that we take into consideration when tuning our Team Optimizer for the next n-gameweeks team selection— predicted total points and expected value (ROI). Below are the stats for each metric, also broken down by position.

现在是时候使用今年改进的算法(预测的球员数据)中的最高明珠了。 在我们将所有FDR，赌注系数，裁判开始，预测的阵容和伤病数归为一类之后，在为下n个游戏周的球队选择调整我们的团队优化工具时，我们需要考虑两个主要指标-预测总分和期望值( ROI)。 以下是每个指标的统计信息，也按排名细分。

预计总积分—前25名玩家 (Projected Total Points — Top 25 Players)

预计期望价值(ROI)-前25名球员(Projected Expected Value (ROI) — Top 25 Players)

预计得分-最佳门将(Projected Points — Top Goalkeepers)

预测得分—顶级防守者(Projected Points — Top Defenders)

预测得分—中场最佳球员(Projected Points — Top Midfielders)

预计点数-热门射手(Projected Points — Top Strikers)

As you can see there is a large number of options we can choose from for each position, so we will be plugging a lot of the stats above into an Optimization Function in Python, which will output the team with the highest expected total points, given our budget constraints and other metrics that go into our decision making process. Some of the preliminary filters, applied before the Team Selector Code kicks in, include:

正如您所看到的，我们可以为每个职位选择很多选项，因此我们将上面的许多统计信息插入Python的“优化函数”中，这将输出给定最高预期总得分的团队我们的预算限制和其他用于决策过程的指标。 在加入小组选择代码之前应用的一些初步过滤器包括：

1. Exclude Injured or Suspended players

   排除受伤或暂停的球员

2. Exclude Players from teams with high FDR

   从FDR高的球队中排除球员

3. Exclude Players from Teams without Fixtures in GW1

   在GW1中将没有装置的球员从球队中排除

4. Cannot have more than 3 players from the same team

   同一支球队最多只能有3名球员

5. Must have 15 players total (GK=2, DF=5, MD=5, ST=3)

   必须总共有15名玩家(GK = 2，DF = 5，MD = 5，ST = 3)

例如优化预算，以3–5–2地层与填料潜艇 (Ex. Optimize Budget for a 3–5–2 formation with filler subs)

As you can see below, the model first looks at parameters that tells it if it should optimize towards full squad of 15 players, or towards a specific formation with 11 key players and 4 cheap fillers. For the fillers, it first looks at preferred formation and uses that to decide how many fillers to get per position. The model then subtracts the total amount spent on the 4 fillers from our initial budget and spends the leftover budget on the key 11 players, given the optimization function and model constraints.

正如您在下面看到的那样，该模型首先查看参数，该参数告诉模型是否应针对15个玩家的完整阵容或针对具有11个主要玩家和4个便宜填充物的特定编队进行优化。 对于填充物，它首先查看首选的构造，然后使用它来确定每个位置要填充多少个填充物。 然后，模型会从我们的初始预算中减去在这4个填充程序上花费的总金额，并将剩余的预算花费在11个主要参与者上，并提供优化功能和模型约束。

We used the output of the Optimizer Algorithm to build the team below:

我们使用优化器算法的输出来构建以下团队：

We pretty much made just one change and that was trading Auba for KDB. This year we will be trying to get very few -4pts from extra transfers, since our algorithm is meant to invest in players that you can keep at least for 3–4 gameweeks, so we should not be doing lots of transfers each week. It was hard to select a captain, but given Son’s recent form and Newcastle’s shaky defense, we’re hoping it will pay off. But we also think that KDB, Salah and Fernandes are not bad captain choices either since there is a higher chance of penalties in all of these team’s games.

我们几乎只做了一个更改，那就是将Auba换成KDB。 今年，我们将尝试从额外转会中获得很少的-4分，因为我们的算法旨在投资至少可以保留3-4个游戏周的玩家，因此我们不应该每周进行大量转会。 很难选择一个队长，但是鉴于孙正义的最近状态以及纽卡斯尔的不稳定防守，我们希望它能有所回报。 但是我们也认为KDB，Salah和Fernandes都不是队长的错误选择，因为所有这些球队的比赛都有更高的罚球机会。

结论 (Conclusion)

We still have some work to do with our transfers to get rid of Saliba and get a more consistent GK than Areola, but that might take a few game weeks to work out, so, for now, we’re sticking with our long term investment in our current squad, and giving the players at least 3–4 weeks to realize their expected potential. Some of them such as Son, Salah, and KDB are already paying off decent dividends :) Enjoy watching the games this weekend and good luck with selecting the right captain as we all got reminded just how important that is by Son and Kane last weekend :)

我们仍然需要做一些与转账有关的工作，以摆脱Saliba并获得比Areola更一致的GK，但这可能要花几个游戏周才能完成，因此，到目前为止，我们坚持长期投资在我们目前的阵容中，并给球员至少3-4周的时间来实现他们的预期潜力。 Son，Salah和KDB等其中一些人已经获得了丰厚的回报：)享受本周末观看比赛的乐趣，并选择合适的队长，祝大家好运，因为我们所有人都回想起上周末Son和Kane的重要性： )

翻译自: https://towardsdatascience.com/epl-fantasy-gw2-recap-and-gw3-algo-picks-16573dd004bd

epl2编程指南