python篮球比赛预测数据分析统计服_利用Python进行NBA比赛数据分析

-- coding:utf-8 --

import pandas as pd

import math

import csv

import random

import numpy as np

from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score

from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression

base_elo = 1600

team_elos = {}

team_stats = {}

X = []

y = []

folder = 'data'

计算每个球队的elo值

def calc_elo(win_team, lose_team):

winner_rank = get_elo(win_team)

loser_rank = get_elo(lose_team)

rank_diff = winner_rank - loser_rank

exp = (rank_diff * -1) / 400

odds = 1 / (1 + math.pow(10, exp))

# 根据rank级别修改K值

if winner_rank < 2100:

k = 32

elif winner_rank >= 2100 and winner_rank < 2400:

k = 24

else:

k = 16

new_winner_rank = round(winner_rank + (k * (1 - odds)))

new_rank_diff = new_winner_rank - winner_rank

new_loser_rank = loser_rank - new_rank_diff

return new_winner_rank, new_loser_rank

根据每支队伍的Miscellaneous Opponent，Team统计数据csv文件进行初始化

def initialize_data(Mstat, Ostat, Tstat):

new_Mstat = Mstat.drop(['Rk', 'Arena'], axis=1)

new_Ostat = Ostat.drop(['Rk', 'G', 'MP'], axis=1)

new_Tstat = Tstat.drop(['Rk', 'G', 'MP'], axis=1)

team_stats1 = pd.merge(new_Mstat, new_Ostat, how='left', on='Team')

team_stats1 = pd.merge(team_stats1, new_Tstat, how='left', on='Team')

print team_stats1.info()

return team_stats1.set_index('Team', inplace=False, drop=True)

def get_elo(team):

try:

return team_elos[team]

except:

# 当最初没有elo时，给每个队伍最初赋base_elo

team_elos[team] = base_elo

return team_elos[team]

def build_dataSet(all_data):

print("Building data set..")

for index, row in all_data.iterrows():

Wteam = row['WTeam']

Lteam = row['LTeam']

#获取最初的elo或是每个队伍最初的elo值

team1_elo = get_elo(Wteam)

team2_elo = get_elo(Lteam)

# 给主场比赛的队伍加上100的elo值

if row['WLoc'] == 'H':

team1_elo += 100

else:

team2_elo += 100

# 把elo当为评价每个队伍的第一个特征值

team1_features = [team1_elo]

team2_features = [team2_elo]

# 添加我们从basketball reference.com获得的每个队伍的统计信息

for key, value in team_stats.loc[Wteam].iteritems():

team1_features.append(value)

for key, value in team_stats.loc[Lteam].iteritems():

team2_features.append(value)

# 将两支队伍的特征值随机的分配在每场比赛数据的左右两侧

# 并将对应的0/1赋给y值

if random.random() > 0.5:

X.append(team1_features + team2_features)

y.append(0)

else:

X.append(team2_features + team1_features)

y.append(1)

# 根据这场比赛的数据更新队伍的elo值

new_winner_rank, new_loser_rank = calc_elo(Wteam, Lteam)

team_elos[Wteam] = new_winner_rank

team_elos[Lteam] = new_loser_rank

return np.nan_to_num(X), np.array(y)

def predict_winner(team_1, team_2, model):

features = []

# team 1，客场队伍

features.append(get_elo(team_1))

for key, value in team_stats.loc[team_1].iteritems():

features.append(value)

# team 2，主场队伍

features.append(get_elo(team_2) + 100)

for key, value in team_stats.loc[team_2].iteritems():

features.append(value)

features = np.nan_to_num(features)

return model.predict_proba([features])

if name == 'main':

Mstat = pd.read_csv(folder + '/15-16Miscellaneous_Stat.csv')

Ostat = pd.read_csv(folder + '/15-16Opponent_Per_Game_Stat.csv')

Tstat = pd.read_csv(folder + '/15-16Team_Per_Game_Stat.csv')

team_stats = initialize_data(Mstat, Ostat, Tstat)

result_data = pd.read_csv(folder + '/2015-2016_result.csv')

X, y = build_dataSet(result_data)

# 训练网络模型

print("Fitting on %d game samples.." % len(X))

model = LogisticRegression()

model.fit(X, y)

#利用10折交叉验证计算训练正确率

print("Doing cross-validation..")

print(cross_val_score(model, X, y, cv = 10, scoring='accuracy', n_jobs=-1).mean())

#利用训练好的model在16-17年的比赛中进行预测

print('Predicting on new schedule..')

schedule1617 = pd.read_csv(folder + '/16-17Schedule.csv')

result = []

for index, row in schedule1617.iterrows():

team1 = row['Vteam']

team2 = row['Hteam']

pred = predict_winner(team1, team2, model)

prob = pred[0][0]

if prob > 0.5:

winner = team1

loser = team2

result.append([winner, loser, prob])

else:

winner = team2

loser = team1

result.append([winner, loser, 1 - prob])

with open('16-17Result.csv', 'wb') as f:

writer = csv.writer(f)

writer.writerow(['win', 'lose', 'probability'])

writer.writerows(result)