java weka logistic,如何解释Weka Logistic回归输出？

Please help interpret results of logistic regression produced by weka.classifiers.functions.Logistic from Weka library.

I use numeric data from Weka examples:

@relation weather

@attribute outlook {sunny, overcast, rainy}

@attribute temperature real

@attribute humidity real

@attribute windy {TRUE, FALSE}

@attribute play {yes, no}

@data

sunny,85,85,FALSE,no

sunny,80,90,TRUE,no

overcast,83,86,FALSE,yes

rainy,70,96,FALSE,yes

rainy,68,80,FALSE,yes

rainy,65,70,TRUE,no

overcast,64,65,TRUE,yes

sunny,72,95,FALSE,no

sunny,69,70,FALSE,yes

rainy,75,80,FALSE,yes

sunny,75,70,TRUE,yes

overcast,72,90,TRUE,yes

overcast,81,75,FALSE,yes

rainy,71,91,TRUE,no

To create logistic regression model I use command:

java -cp $WEKA_INS/weka.jar weka.classifiers.functions.Logistic -t $WEKA_INS/data/weather.numeric.arff -T $WEKA_INS/data/weather.numeric.arff -d ./weather.numeric.model.arff

Here the three arguments mean:

-t : Sets training file.

-T : Sets test file.

-d : Sets model output file.

Running the above command produce the following output:

Logistic Regression with ridge parameter of 1.0E-8

Coefficients...

Class

Variable yes

===============================

outlook=sunny -6.4257

outlook=overcast 13.5922

outlook=rainy -5.6562

temperature -0.0776

humidity -0.1556

windy 3.7317

Intercept 22.234

Odds Ratios...

Class

Variable yes

===============================

outlook=sunny 0.0016

outlook=overcast 799848.4264

outlook=rainy 0.0035

temperature 0.9254

humidity 0.8559

windy 41.7508

Time taken to build model: 0.05 seconds

Time taken to test model on training data: 0 seconds

=== Error on training data ===

Correctly Classified Instances 11 78.5714 %

Incorrectly Classified Instances 3 21.4286 %

Kappa statistic 0.5532

Mean absolute error 0.2066

Root mean squared error 0.3273

Relative absolute error 44.4963 %

Root relative squared error 68.2597 %

Total Number of Instances 14

=== Confusion Matrix ===

a b

7 2 | a = yes

1 4 | b = no

Questions:

1) First section of the report:

Coefficients...

Class

Variable yes

===============================

outlook=sunny -6.4257

outlook=overcast 13.5922

outlook=rainy -5.6562

temperature -0.0776

humidity -0.1556

windy 3.7317

Intercept 22.234

1.1) Do I understand right that "Coefficients" are in fact weights that are applied to each attribute

before adding them together to produce the value of class attribute "play" equal to " yes"?

2) Second section of the report:

Odds Ratios...

Class

Variable yes

===============================

outlook=sunny 0.0016

outlook=overcast 799848.4264

outlook=rainy 0.0035

temperature 0.9254

humidity 0.8559

windy 41.7508

2.1) What is the meaning of "Odds Ratios"?

2.2) Do they all also relate to class attribute "play" equal to " yes"?

2.3) Why value of "outlook=overcast" is so much bigger then value of "outlook=sunny"?

3)

=== Confusion Matrix ===

a b

7 2 | a = yes

1 4 | b = no

3.1) What is the menaing of Confusion Matrix?

Thanks a lot for your help!

解决方案

Question:

Updated from comment below: The coefficients are in fact the weights that are applied to each attribute which are plugged into the logistic function 1/(1+exp(-weighted_sum)) to obtain probabilities. Note that the "Intercept" value is added to the sum without multiplying by any of your variables before adding them together. The result is the probability that the new instance belongs to class yes (> 0.5 means yes).

The odds ratios indicate how large of an influence a change in that value (or change to that value) will have on the prediction. I think this

The confusion matrix simply shows you how many of the test data points are correctly and incorrectly classified. In your example 7 A's were actually classified as A, whereas 2 A's were misclassified as B. Your question is more thoroughly answered in this question: How to read the classifier confusion matrix in WEKA.