经济管理中的计算机应用 电子书,经济管理学中的计算机应用

经济管理学中的计算机应用

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《经济管理学中的计算机应用》作业一、平滑指数模型(1)取平滑指数a=0. 1时月份销售额预测值1240240235024032302514260248.95280250.016320253.0097220259.70818310255.73739240261.163610310259.047211240264.142512230261.7282(2)aMSE0.12267.1840.22318.1070.32463.9640.42664.0150.52913.778最小MSE2267.184最佳a0.1(4)利用最优平滑指数a二0. 1预测第13个月的销售金额为258. 56。二、移动平均模型年季度销售额4季度移动平均中心化季节不规则值季节指数1601.37890612200.64164334047.552.50.7619050.6545747057.558.751.1914891.3241111006061.251.632653223062.571.250.4210533508082.50.60606141408592.51.51351431120100102.51.170732 290105107.50.837209370110117.50.5957454160125126.251.26732741180127.51351.3333332100142.51500.6666673130157.54220序年季度销售额季节指数消除季节影响的销量趋势预测值季度预测值11601.37890643.512754727.3089837.6565222200.64164331.169987336.9699423.7215313400.65457061.10881846.6309030.5231944701.32411052.865703756.2918674.53661511001.37890672.521257865.9528290.9427562300.64164346.754980975.6137848.51704723500.65457076.386022585.2747455.81829841401.324110105.73140794.93570125.7053911201.37890687.0255094104.59666144.22910Q2900.641643140.264943114.2576273.3125911O3700.654570106.940432123.9185881.113391241601.324110120.835894133.57954176.87413411801.378906130.538264143.24050197.51521421000.641643155.849936152.9014698.108131531300.654570198.603659162.56242106.40851642201.324110166.149354172.22338228.042717511.378906181.88434250.80141820.641643191.54530122.90371930.654570201.20626131.70362041.324110210.86722279.2114三、回归分析模型(1)方法一、用内建函数lntercept()和Slope()计算回归系数a -147.27b 27.12787R2 0.970423方法二、用内建函数Linest()计算回归系数b a27.12787 -147.27方法三、用回归分析报告完成一元线性回归分析SUMMARY OUTPUT回归统计Multiple R 0.9851R Square 0.970423 Adjusted0.966197R Square标准误差27.26526观测值9方差分析Significa ndfSSMSFce F170733.170733.229.667回归分析11.31E-068885203.76743.394残差726175937.总计86Coefficients标准误Lower95%Upper95%下限95.0%上限95.0%差t StatP-value22.7758-6.46600.00034-93.413-201.12? 93.413In tercept-147.27-201.126355464X Variable1.7900515.15471.31E-031.360622.895031.360627.1278722.895071296777回归方程为:Y=-147. 27+27. 12787*X判定系数为R2=0. 970423(2 关 键 词： 经济 管理学 中的 计算机 应用

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