【源码】fitVirusCOVID19：基于SIR模型估计冠状病毒COVID-19的流行性

来自其它国家的数据

Data for other countries

欧洲疾病预防控制中心（ECDC）提供的世界上许多国家的数据可以在Our World in Data找到

Data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) for many countries in the world can be found at Our World in Data,

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data.

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函数fitVirusCV19实现了用于流行病评估的易感感染恢复（SIR）流行病模型。

The function fitVirusCV19 implements the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model for the estimation of epidemy evaluation.

假设该模型是单级流行病的合理描述。

It is assumed that the model is a reasonable description of the one-stage epidemic.

特别是，该模型假设人口数量是恒定的，各类人是均匀混合的，同样感染恢复的几率是均等的。

In particular, the model assumes a constant population, uniform mixing of the people, and equally likely recovery of infected.

该模型是数据驱动的，所以它的预测效果与数据相关。

The model is data-driven, so its forecast is as good as data are.

预测结果随着新的或改变的数据而改变。

The forecasting change with new or changed data.

模型的参数是通过最小化目标函数，即残值平方和和、残值差平方和得到的。

The parameters of the model are obtained by minimization of the objective function, which is the sum of squares for residuals of values and sum of squares for residuals of values differences.

权重的总和将自动选择。

The weights of summands are selected automatically.

优化工具箱函数fminsearch用于计算未知模型参数的最优值。

Optimization Toolbox function fminsearch is used to calculate optimal values of unknown model parameters.

贡献的数据包含阿根廷、奥地利、比利时、加拿大、克罗地亚、中国、丹麦、德国、匈牙利、法国、印度尼西亚、伊朗、意大利、伦巴第、荷兰、纽约州、挪威、葡萄牙、塞尔维亚、斯洛文尼亚、韩国、西班牙、瑞士、英国、美国的冠状病毒数据以及中国境外（截至2020年3月24日）的数据

The contribute contains data for coronavirus for Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, China, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, France, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Lombardia, Netherlands, NY State, Norway, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, UK, USA and data for outside of China (up to 24.Mar.2020)

在epidemy评估图上，对epidemy阶段进行颜色分隔（这些阶段不是标准的，但为方便起见可任意选择）：

红色——快速生长期

黄色——过渡到稳态阶段

绿色——结束阶段

On the epidemy evaluation graph, regions color separate epidemy phases (these are not standard but arbitrarily chosen for convenience):

red - fast growth phase

yellow - transition to steady-state phase

green - ending phase (plateau stage)

结果保存在结构体res中（参见函数fiVirusCV19头文件）。可选地，结果可以由fitVirusCV19(@getData,‘prn’,‘on’)打印。

Results are saved in structure res (see function fiVirusCV19 header). Optionally the results may be printed by

fitVirusCV19(@getData,‘prn’,‘on’)

当回归失败时，只绘制数据。

When regression fails then only data are plotted.

人口数量限制在200万。可以按名称/值对更改上限

Population size is limited to 2 Mio. You can change the upper limit by name/value pair

fitVirusCV19(@getData,‘nmax’,nmax)

如果最终预测值过高或超过该国家人口，请使用此选项。

Use this option if the final prediction is too high or exceed the country population.

免责声明：软件和数据仅用于教学，而不是医疗或商业用途。模型在某些情况下可能会失败。特别是，该模型可能不充分；该模型可能在初始阶段失败，并且在遇到额外的流行病阶段或暴发（SIR模型未描述）时失败。

DISCLAIMER: Software and data are for education and not for medical or commercial use. The model may fail in some situations. In particular, the model may be inadequate; the model may fail in the initial phase and in when additional epidemic stages or outbreaks (not described by SIR model) are encountered. Use it at your own discretion.

数据来源：

Source of data

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_by_country_and_territory

An actual source of data is for each country reported in the corresponding getData function.

A more detailed description can be found in

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339311383_Estimation_of_the_final_size_of_the_coronavirus_epidemic_by_the_SIR_model

Examples can be found in

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339912313_Forecasting_of_final_COVID-19_epidemic_size_200318

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