【源码】SimCOVID5：用于模拟、跟踪和估计COVID-19在全球范围内的传播

Introduction:

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这项工作提出了开源的计算机模拟程序，用于模拟、跟踪和预测COVID-19的爆发与传播。这些程序是在Simulink和MATLAB（两个独立的程序）中构建的，旨在用于教育和研究。它不是出于如医疗或商业的目的。本程序中使用的数学模型是SIR、SEIR和SEIRD模型，这些模型由一组微分代数方程表示。它可以很容易地进行修改，为这个问题开发新的模型。该软件包以一种通用、简单和有效的方式模拟了世界各地的所有疫情。感染和康复率函数被视为常数、变量或两者的组合。此外，采用自适应神经模糊推理系统对模型进行训练并预测其输出。与其他开源程序一样，这个软件包没有任何正确保证。请自担风险使用。

This work presents open-source computer simulation programs developed for simulating, tracking, and forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak. The programs are built in Simulink and MATLAB (two separate programs) and are aimed to be used for educational and research studies. It is not directed for any other reason such as medical or commercial purposes. The mathematical model used in this program is the SIR, SEIR, and SEIRD models represented by a set of differential-algebraic equations. It can be easily modified to develop new models for the problem. The package simulates all the outbreaks around the world in a generalized, easy, and efficient way. The infection and recovery rate functions are treated as constant, variable, or a combination of the two. In addition, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system is employed and proposed to train the model and predict its output. As with any other open-source programs, this package comes without any guarantee. Please use it at your own risk.

Data Source:

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每个国家/地区的简单数据表都由excel每日更新。只需输入国家名称并运行模型。你可以很容易地编辑自己使用的程序。

A simple script was coded to extract the data for each country from the excel sheet provided by the website below and updated daily. you only need to enter the country name and run the model. You can easily edit the programs for your own uses. All worldwide countries are included.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

SimCOVID consists of two separate programs:

MATLAB Version:

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Several MATLAB programs with different versions are available using various models including SIR and SEIR representation. The programs are used for:

(1) parameter estimation

(2) tracking existing data

(3) forecasting future spread

You can edit the codes, add new differential equations, define new functions for the inputs such as the infection and recovery rates, and build a GUI for your model and use.

Simulink Version:

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The same basic models created in MATLAB are available in Simulink with a block diagram display. This was the first version of SimCOVID to be used for estimating the parameters in the model, simulating the model to track the virus spread and predict its path and size. In addition, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system is created to replace the differential equations in the model and predict the future outbreak. The program is included in the Simulink version of SimCOVID. Further, several demonstrating videos were created and available below for educational purposes. For those who have different versions of Simulink, the same programs were saved in the following versions: R2018a, R2018b, R2019a, R2019b, and R2020a.

Preprint Publication:

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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063354v2

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340600580_SimCOVID5_Short-_Medium-and_Long-Term_Estimation_SIR_and_SEIR_Models-_Worldwide_Countries

Educational Videos:

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https://www.dropbox.com/s/ncihp1dbqx1p35m/Italy_Optimization.webm?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/illjl95v4r603og/Italy.webm?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/mj6bi1jbiik9c03/Italy_SEIRD.webm?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/mxbz8j9ogoom65g/China_Wuhan_SEIRD.webm?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/myi95d6dwnttoc8/ChinaOneStep.webm?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/sbnn1784a00hiw7/ANFIS.webm?dl=0

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