Kaggle——TMDB电影票房预测

最近在kaggle上找项目练习，发现一个 TMDB电影票房预测项目比较适合练手。这里记录在下。

目标是通过train集中的数据训练模型，将test集数据导入模型得出目标值revenue即票房，上传结果得到分数和排名。

数据可以从kaggle网站上直接下载，文中用到的额外数据可从
https://www.kaggle.com/kamalchhirang/tmdb-competition-additional-features
和
https://www.kaggle.com/kamalchhirang/tmdb-box-office-prediction-more-training-data
下载。

EDA

train.info()

载入数据并整理后大体观察

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
Int64Index: 3000 entries, 0 to 2999
Data columns (total 53 columns):
id                       3000 non-null int64
belongs_to_collection    604 non-null object
budget                   3000 non-null int64
genres                   3000 non-null object
homepage                 946 non-null object
imdb_id                  3000 non-null object
original_language        3000 non-null object
original_title           3000 non-null object
overview                 2992 non-null object
popularity               3000 non-null float64
poster_path              2999 non-null object
production_companies     2844 non-null object
production_countries     2945 non-null object
release_date             3000 non-null object
runtime                  2998 non-null float64
spoken_languages         2980 non-null object
status                   3000 non-null object
tagline                  2403 non-null object
title                    3000 non-null object
Keywords                 2724 non-null object
cast                     2987 non-null object
crew                     2984 non-null object
revenue                  3000 non-null int64
logRevenue               3000 non-null float64
release_month            3000 non-null int32
release_day              3000 non-null int32
release_year             3000 non-null int32
release_dayofweek        3000 non-null int64
release_quarter          3000 non-null int64
Action                   3000 non-null int64
Adventure                3000 non-null int64
Animation                3000 non-null int64
Comedy                   3000 non-null int64
Crime                    3000 non-null int64
Documentary              3000 non-null int64
Drama                    3000 non-null int64
Family                   3000 non-null int64
Fantasy                  3000 non-null int64
Foreign                  3000 non-null int64
History                  3000 non-null int64
Horror                   3000 non-null int64
Music                    3000 non-null int64
Mystery                  3000 non-null int64
Romance                  3000 non-null int64
Science Fiction          3000 non-null int64
TV Movie                 3000 non-null int64
Thriller                 3000 non-null int64
War                      3000 non-null int64
Western                  3000 non-null int64
popularity2              2882 non-null float64
rating                   3000 non-null float64
totalVotes               3000 non-null float64
meanRevenueByRating      8 non-null float64
dtypes: float64(7), int32(3), int64(25), object(18)
memory usage: 1.2+ MB

主要的几项特征：

• budget：预算
• revenue：票房
• rating：观众打分
• totalVotes：观众打分数量
• popularity：流行系数(怎么得出的暂未可知)
  
  票房和预算呈较明显的正相关关系。这很符合常识，但也不定，现在也挺多投资高票房低的烂片的。

除了预算外，票房和观众打分数量也有一定关系。这也符合常识，不管观众打分高低，只要有大量观众打分，就说明该电影是舆论热点，票房就不会太低。

近几年的电影市场无论是投资还是票房都有比较大的增长，说明了电影市场的火爆。也提醒我们后续的特征工程需要关注电影上映年份。

通过电影的语言来看票房。en表示英语。毕竟世界语言，无论是票房的体量还是高票房爆款，都独占鳌头。zh就是你心里想的那个，中文。可见华语电影对于english可以望其项背了。语言对票房也有一定反映。

票房的分布明显右偏，可以通过np.logp1方法转换为对数形式实现数据的正态化，但记得在得到最后的预测数据后再用np.expm1方法转换回来。

通过热力图观察几个主要特征跟票房的皮尔逊系数(线性相关系数)，及其彼此的系数。可见跟票房revenue最相关的为budget，totalVotes，popularity。

特征工程

特征工程太过繁琐，不一一叙述，直接上整体代码。

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import warnings
from tqdm import tqdm
from sklearn.preprocessing import LabelEncoder
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")

def prepare(df):
    global json_cols
    global train_dict
    df['rating'] = df['rating'].fillna(1.5)
    df['totalVotes'] = df['totalVotes'].fillna(6)
    df['weightedRating'] = (df['rating'] * df['totalVotes'] + 6.367 * 300) / (df['totalVotes'] + 300)

    df[['release_month', 'release_day', 'release_year']] = df['release_date'].str.split('/', expand=True).replace(
        np.nan, 0).astype(int)
    df['release_year'] = df['release_year']
    df.loc[(df['release_year'] <= 19) & (df['release_year'] < 100), "release_year"] += 2000
    df.loc[(df['release_year'] > 19) & (df['release_year'] < 100), "release_year"] += 1900

    releaseDate = pd.to_datetime(df['release_date'])
    df['release_dayofweek'] = releaseDate.dt.dayofweek
    df['release_quarter'] = releaseDate.dt.quarter

    df['originalBudget'] = df['budget']
    df['inflationBudget'] = df['budget'] + df['budget'] * 1.8 / 100 * (
                2018 - df['release_year'])  # Inflation simple formula
    df['budget'] = np.log1p(df['budget'])

    df['genders_0_crew'] = df['crew'].apply(lambda x: sum([1 for i in x if i['gender'] == 0]))
    df['genders_1_crew'] = df['crew'].apply(lambda x: sum([1 for i in x if i['gender'] == 1]))
    df['genders_2_crew'] = df['crew'].apply(lambda x: sum([1 for i in x if i['gender'] == 2]))
    df['_collection_name'] = df['belongs_to_collection'].apply(lambda x: x[0]['name'] if x != {
   } else '').fillna('')
    le = LabelEncoder()
    df['_collection_name'] = le.fit_transform(df['_collection_name'])
    df['_num_Keywords'] = df['Keywords'].apply(lambda x: len(x) if x != {
   } else 0)
    df['_num_cast'] = df['cast'].apply(lambda x: len(x) if x != {
   } else 0)

    df['_popularity_mean_year'] = df['popularity'] / df.groupby("release_year")["popularity"].transform('mean')
    df['_budget_runtime_ratio'] = df['budget'] / df['runtime']
    df['_budget_popularity_ratio'] = df['budget'] / df['popularity']
    df['_budget_year_ratio'] = df['budget'] / (df['release_year'] * df['release_year'])
    df['_releaseYear_popularity_ratio'] = df['release_year'] / df['popularity']
    df['_releaseYear_popularity_ratio2'] = df['popularity'] / df['release_year']

    df['_popularity_totalVotes_ratio'] = df['totalVotes'] / df['popularity']
    df['_rating_popularity_ratio'] = df['rating'] / df['popularity']
    df['_rating_totalVotes_ratio'] = df['totalVotes'] / df['rating']
    df['_totalVotes_releaseYear_ratio'] = df['totalVotes'] / df['release_year']
    df['_budget_rating_ratio'] = df['budget'] / df['rating']
    df['_runtime_rating_ratio'] = df['runtime'] / df['rating']
    df['_budget_totalVotes_ratio'] = df['budget'] / df['totalVotes']

    df['has_homepage'] = 1
    df.loc[pd.isnull(df['homepage']), "has_homepage"] = 0

    df['isbelongs_to_collectionNA'] = 0
    df.loc[pd.isnull(df['belongs_to_collection']), "isbelongs_to_collectionNA"] = 1

    df['isTaglineNA'] = 0
    df.loc[df['tagline'] == 0, "isTaglineNA"] = 1

    df['isOriginalLanguageEng'] = 0
    df.loc[df['original_language'] == "en", "isOriginalLanguageEng"] = 1

    df['isTitleDifferent'] = 1
    df.loc[df['original_title'] == df['title'], "isTitleDifferent"] = 0

    df['isMovieReleased'] = 1
    df.loc[df['status'] != "Released", "isMovieReleased"] = 0

    # get collection id
    df['collection_id'] = df['belongs_to_collection'].apply(lambda x: np.nan if len(x) == 0 else x[0]['id'])

    df['original_title_letter_count'] = df['original_title'].str.len()
    df['original_title_word_count'] = df['original_title']