2020美赛M奖感想

2020美赛M奖感想

想想还是要写一写这次美赛的感想。
团队3个人,只有我一个是正经上过数学建模课程的人,其他两位队友对于建模0基础。一位稍微偏向于文科,一位还好是电子院是理工类。

寒假放假前组的队,本来打算提前几天到学校里提前补补,但是由于疫情的原因,这个计划彻底泡汤了。找到指导老师人还不错,在比赛的前几天给我们发了几篇论文。我才意识到比赛时间近了。于是我找了大概最近5年的比赛题目以及O奖论文,还有一些其他的模型资料啥的(其实是淘宝辅助报名送的)
大概是提前了3、4天的样子,我开始在群里喊着大家一起看往年的题目以及O奖论文,基本流程是看题目->尝试写一写自己的想法->讨论->抠O奖论文的各个部分(模型部分基本是略过去了,有些太过复杂,我们都是小白看不太懂)。最开始这样一套流程过去大概要花3、4个小时吧,差不多从早上8点到中午吃饭时间。一直在打微信电话,说的我嗓子都要哑了。最后就变得有些敷衍了。最后总结说做后面政策题会比较简单。
前期的准备真的做的不是很充分,只是网上找到了的word模板,(因为都不会用latex,而且时间比较紧也没时间学了),以及大概是什么类型的问题用什么样的模型。
比赛前一天比较早的就结束了讨论,说想好好休息,打算早起看题目,并且打算尽量在week1比赛就做完,因为week2就要开学上网课了,比较麻烦。
看题是3个人各看3题,我看的A觉得还行是连续性问题,另一位看了B题的小伙伴可能是喜欢足球吧,对B题有些心动,但是我和另一个小伙伴都觉得B比较复杂,数据处理很难,还是比较快速的最终对A题下手了。
中间找数据真的很痛苦,处理数据也是很痛苦。。。此处就略过去吧。
其实我们用的模型都不是很复杂,编程也只用了matlab,数据处理还用到了excel。其实不要小看excel,它的功能还是满强大的。中间分共还是挺明确的,偏文的小伙伴主要负责写作,我和另一位小伙伴负责建模。但是我会在每写完一部分的时候再认真修改看一遍语法用词之类,最后的摘要和一封信也是我写的,然后再修改。那几天都是早上6点起床,就开始语音,除了吃饭的时候休息一会儿,其他时间脑子里都是那两种鱼。中间也有很难的时候,但还好坚持下来了。
真的挺惊讶可以获得M奖,因为这两位小伙伴我都不是很熟,是第一次组队。或许就是因为这个原因吧,大家要格外认真一点,谁都不好意思偷懒。
本文没啥干货只是一些废话,就当记录一次竞赛吧。

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Bad climate change may greatly increase the fragility of the country. How to evaluate the impact of climate change and mitigate the impact of climate change has become an urgent problem. With regard to task one, a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model is established to get the country's fragility. First of all, we selected 4 climate factors as input indicators and 5 output indicators. Then, we use the entropy method to determine the weight and then the national vulnerability is divided. At the same time, we get the conclusion that temperature affects GDP and the times of armed conflict directly and affects the fragility indirectly. In view of task two, we choose Somalia as an object of study. First, all the indexes are divided into 5 levels by the method of cluster analysis. Second, we select 10 countries including Somalia, to solve the decision unit matrix. Then, using the model of the problem one, it is found that the increase in temperature and rainfall will cause the national vulnerability to rise and decrease, respectively. Finally, we assign 4 climate indicators to 0 of the decision units, and draw the conclusion that national vulnerability will be reduced without the impact of climate factors. When it comes to task three, we use the rough set theory to reduce the output index to the number of armed conflicts. Then, we use the BP neural network model to predict the conclusion: There is a significant increase in fragility in cases of much more armed conflict and abnormal temperature. When the average annual armed conflict is certain, the national vulnerability index will face an increasing turning point at the temperature of 10.01 and the rainfall of 1823mm. As to task four, three policies on energy reduction and emission reduction issued by the government have been selected, and a model of carbon cycle is established. Taking China as an example, we calculate the extent of the change of the average temperature by reducing the carbon dioxide emissions from the state, and calculate the change of the national vulnerability through the change of temperature. We conclude that when the temperature drops 1.9 degrees, the national vulnerability decreases by 0.1593 and the cost is 20.3 billion $. Last but not least, due to the relative accuracy of the DEA model, the urban fragile performance is accurately predicted while the continent is not. In this paper, the TOPSIS model of distance entropy of three parameter interval number is used to modify the decision matrix of the DEA model. By increasing the upper and lower bounds of the interval, the value of the decision unit is more accurate, and then the weight of the index is modified based on the schedule. When we use the North American continent for test, the error was about 2.9%。 主要解决国家脆弱性的问题,欢迎下载。

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