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最新推荐文章于 2023-10-16 07:00:00 发布

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最新推荐文章于 2023-10-16 07:00:00 发布

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文章标签：网络

原文链接：https://blog.csdn.net/WZZ_2363173126/article/details/115410208

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假设

链路的带宽为1Mbps，每个用户需要的带宽为100kbps。
分组交换模式下，一个用户活跃的概率为0.1。

推论

电路交换：仅支持

       1
      
      
       M
      
      
       b
      
      
       p
      
      
       s
      
     
     
      
       100
      
      
       k
      
      
       b
      
      
       p
      
      
       s
      
     
    
    
     =
    
   
   
    \frac{1Mbps}{100kbps}=
   
  
 </span><span class="katex-html"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 1.41332em; vertical-align: -0.481108em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mopen nulldelimiter"></span><span class="mfrac"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.932216em;"><span class="" style="top: -2.655em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 3em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mtight">1</span><span class="mord mtight">0</span><span class="mord mtight">0</span><span class="mord mathdefault mtight" style="margin-right: 0.03148em;">k</span><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">b</span><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">p</span><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">s</span></span></span></span><span class="" style="top: -3.23em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 3em;"></span><span class="frac-line" style="border-bottom-width: 0.04em;"></span></span><span class="" style="top: -3.44611em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 3em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mtight">1</span><span class="mord mathdefault mtight" style="margin-right: 0.10903em;">M</span><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">b</span><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">p</span><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">s</span></span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s"></span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.481108em;"><span class=""></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mclose nulldelimiter"></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.277778em;"></span><span class="mrel">=</span></span></span></span></span><code>10</code>个用户。</li><li>分组交换：35个用户条件下，<code>11个及以上用户同时活跃的概率为0.0004</code>，即<code>10个及10个以内用户同时活跃的概率为0.9996</code>，基本上与电路交换性能相当。</li></ul>

验证推论

数学推导

假设中的模型满足二项分布，则10个及以内用户同时活跃的概率为：

      P
     
     
      
       10
      
      
       个
      
      
       及
      
      
       以
      
      
       内
      
      
       用
      
      
       户
      
      
       同
      
      
       时
      
      
       活
      
      
       跃
      
     
    
    
     =
    
    
     
      ∑
     
     
      
       i
      
      
       =
      
      
       0
      
     
     
      10
     
    
    
     (
    
    
     
      C
     
     
      35
     
     
      i
     
    
    
     ∗
    
    
     0.
    
    
     
      1
     
     
      i
     
    
    
     ∗
    
    
     0.
    
    
     
      9
     
     
      
       35
      
      
       −
      
      
       i
      
     
    
    
     )
    
   
   
     P_{10个及以内用户同时活跃}=\sum_{i=0}^{10}(C_{35}^i*0.1^i*0.9^{35-i}) 
   
  
 </span><span class="katex-html"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 0.83333em; vertical-align: -0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathdefault" style="margin-right: 0.13889em;">P</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.301108em;"><span class="" style="top: -2.55em; margin-left: -0.13889em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mtight">1</span><span class="mord mtight">0</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">个</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">及</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">以</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">内</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">用</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">户</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">同</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">时</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">活</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">跃</span></span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s"></span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.15em;"><span class=""></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.277778em;"></span><span class="mrel">=</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.277778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 3.07878em; vertical-align: -1.27767em;"></span><span class="mop op-limits"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 1.80111em;"><span class="" style="top: -1.87233em; margin-left: 0em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 3.05em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">i</span><span class="mrel mtight">=</span><span class="mord mtight">0</span></span></span></span><span class="" style="top: -3.05001em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 3.05em;"></span><span class=""><span class="mop op-symbol large-op">∑</span></span></span><span class="" style="top: -4.30001em; margin-left: 0em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 3.05em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mtight">1</span><span class="mord mtight">0</span></span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s"></span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 1.27767em;"><span class=""></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mopen">(</span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathdefault" style="margin-right: 0.07153em;">C</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.874664em;"><span class="" style="top: -2.453em; margin-left: -0.07153em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mtight">3</span><span class="mord mtight">5</span></span></span></span><span class="" style="top: -3.113em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">i</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s"></span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.247em;"><span class=""></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.222222em;"></span><span class="mbin">∗</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.222222em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 0.874664em; vertical-align: 0em;"></span><span class="mord">0</span><span class="mord">.</span><span class="mord"><span class="mord">1</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.874664em;"><span class="" style="top: -3.113em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">i</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.222222em;"></span><span class="mbin">∗</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.222222em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 1.12466em; vertical-align: -0.25em;"></span><span class="mord">0</span><span class="mord">.</span><span class="mord"><span class="mord">9</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.874664em;"><span class="" style="top: -3.113em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mtight">3</span><span class="mord mtight">5</span><span class="mbin mtight">−</span><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">i</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mclose">)</span></span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;11个及以上用户同时活跃的概率为：<br> <span class="katex--display"><span class="katex-display"><span class="katex"><span class="katex-mathml">
 
  
   
    
     
      P
     
     
      
       11
      
      
       个
      
      
       及
      
      
       以
      
      
       上
      
      
       用
      
      
       户
      
      
       同
      
      
       时
      
      
       活
      
      
       跃
      
     
    
    
     =
    
    
     
      ∑
     
     
      
       i
      
      
       =
      
      
       11
      
     
     
      35
     
    
    
     (
    
    
     
      C
     
     
      35
     
     
      i
     
    
    
     ∗
    
    
     0.
    
    
     
      1
     
     
      i
     
    
    
     ∗
    
    
     0.
    
    
     
      9
     
     
      
       35
      
      
       −
      
      
       i
      
     
    
    
     )
    
   
   
     P_{11个及以上用户同时活跃}=\sum_{i=11}^{35}(C_{35}^i*0.1^i*0.9^{35-i}) 
   
  
 </span><span class="katex-html"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 0.83333em; vertical-align: -0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathdefault" style="margin-right: 0.13889em;">P</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.301108em;"><span class="" style="top: -2.55em; margin-left: -0.13889em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mtight">1</span><span class="mord mtight">1</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">个</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">及</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">以</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">上</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">用</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">户</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">同</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">时</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">活</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback mtight">跃</span></span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s"></span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.15em;"><span class=""></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.277778em;"></span><span class="mrel">=</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.277778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 3.07878em; vertical-align: -1.27767em;"></span><span class="mop op-limits"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 1.80111em;"><span class="" style="top: -1.87233em; margin-left: 0em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 3.05em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">i</span><span class="mrel mtight">=</span><span class="mord mtight">1</span><span class="mord mtight">1</span></span></span></span><span class="" style="top: -3.05001em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 3.05em;"></span><span class=""><span class="mop op-symbol large-op">∑</span></span></span><span class="" style="top: -4.30001em; margin-left: 0em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 3.05em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mtight">3</span><span class="mord mtight">5</span></span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s"></span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 1.27767em;"><span class=""></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mopen">(</span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathdefault" style="margin-right: 0.07153em;">C</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.874664em;"><span class="" style="top: -2.453em; margin-left: -0.07153em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mtight">3</span><span class="mord mtight">5</span></span></span></span><span class="" style="top: -3.113em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">i</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s"></span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.247em;"><span class=""></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.222222em;"></span><span class="mbin">∗</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.222222em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 0.874664em; vertical-align: 0em;"></span><span class="mord">0</span><span class="mord">.</span><span class="mord"><span class="mord">1</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.874664em;"><span class="" style="top: -3.113em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">i</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.222222em;"></span><span class="mbin">∗</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.222222em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 1.12466em; vertical-align: -0.25em;"></span><span class="mord">0</span><span class="mord">.</span><span class="mord"><span class="mord">9</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.874664em;"><span class="" style="top: -3.113em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mtight">3</span><span class="mord mtight">5</span><span class="mbin mtight">−</span><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">i</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mclose">)</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

代码验证

为避免阶乘运算，可由组合数的递推公式求组合数：

      C
     
     
      n
     
     
      a
     
    
    
     =
    
    
     
      C
     
     
      
       n
      
      
       −
      
      
       1
      
     
     
      
       a
      
      
       −
      
      
       1
      
     
    
    
     +
    
    
     
      C
     
     
      
       n
      
      
       −
      
      
       1
      
     
     
      a
     
    
    
     ，
    
    
     其
    
    
     中
    
    
     n
    
    
     ≥
    
    
     a
    
    
     ≥
    
    
     1
    
   
   
     C_n^a=C_{n-1}^{a-1}+C_{n-1}^a，其中n\ge a\ge1 
   
  
 </span><span class="katex-html"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 0.961392em; vertical-align: -0.247em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathdefault" style="margin-right: 0.07153em;">C</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.714392em;"><span class="" style="top: -2.453em; margin-left: -0.07153em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">n</span></span></span><span class="" style="top: -3.113em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">a</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s"></span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.247em;"><span class=""></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.277778em;"></span><span class="mrel">=</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.277778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 1.17888em; vertical-align: -0.31477em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathdefault" style="margin-right: 0.07153em;">C</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.864108em;"><span class="" style="top: -2.44356em; margin-left: -0.07153em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">n</span><span class="mbin mtight">−</span><span class="mord mtight">1</span></span></span></span><span class="" style="top: -3.113em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">a</span><span class="mbin mtight">−</span><span class="mord mtight">1</span></span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s"></span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.31477em;"><span class=""></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.222222em;"></span><span class="mbin">+</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.222222em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 1.01972em; vertical-align: -0.305331em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathdefault" style="margin-right: 0.07153em;">C</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.714392em;"><span class="" style="top: -2.453em; margin-left: -0.07153em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">n</span><span class="mbin mtight">−</span><span class="mord mtight">1</span></span></span></span><span class="" style="top: -3.113em; margin-right: 0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height: 2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathdefault mtight">a</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s"></span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height: 0.305331em;"><span class=""></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mord cjk_fallback">，</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback">其</span><span class="mord cjk_fallback">中</span><span class="mord mathdefault">n</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.277778em;"></span><span class="mrel">≥</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.277778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 0.77194em; vertical-align: -0.13597em;"></span><span class="mord mathdefault">a</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.277778em;"></span><span class="mrel">≥</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right: 0.277778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height: 0.64444em; vertical-align: 0em;"></span><span class="mord">1</span></span></span></span></span></span><br> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;使用如下代码可以验证推论：</p>

#include <stdio.h>
#include <math.h>

//CombinationSet[n][a]记录组合数C_n_a，避免重复计算
int CombinationSet[36][36] = {0};

//Combination函数采用递归方式求组合数C_n_a
int Combination(int N, int a)
{
    if (CombinationSet[N][a] != 0)
        return CombinationSet[N][a];

    if (a == 0 || a == N)
        CombinationSet[N][a] = 1;
    else if (a == 1)
        CombinationSet[N][a] = N;
    else
        CombinationSet[N][a] = Combination(N - 1, a - 1) + Combination(N - 1, a);   //递归

    return CombinationSet[N][a];
}

int main()
{
    double Probability = 0;

    //11个及以上用户同时活跃的概率为0.0004
    for (double i = 11; i <= 35; i += 1)
    {
        Probability += Combination(35, i) * pow(0.1, i) * pow(0.9, 35 - i);
    }
    printf("11个及以上用户同时活跃的概率为：%lf。\n", Probability);

    Probability = 0;

    //10个及以内用户同时活跃的概率为0.9996
    for (double i = 0; i <= 10; i += 1)
    {
        Probability += Combination(35, i) * pow(0.1, i) * pow(0.9, 35 - i);
    }
    printf("10个及以内用户同时活跃的概率为：%lf。\n", Probability);

    return 0;
}

 
 
 
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