PMP学习笔记 8.4-9.8章 —— 领英 【Cert Prep: Project management professional（PMP）】

Sequence Activities

The process of identifying how activities relate and then putting them in a logical order.

Project Network Diagram is a great way to sequence activities. Example:

FS: Finish-to-start relationship, e.g. A has a successor of activity B. Activity A has to be finished before the B can start.

SS: Start-to-start relationship, e.g. activity B and C start at the same time.

FF: Finish-to-finish relationship, e.g. activity J can’t finish until activity L finishes.

ITTOs

Input

1. Schedule management plan
2. Scope baseline
3. Activities list
4. Activities attributes
5. Milestone list
6. Assumption log
7. EEFs
8. OPAs

Tools & Techniques

1. Precedence diagramming method (PDM)
   It’s used to create a network diagram with activities shown as nodes or boxes, and the links between the nodes as arrows.
2. Dependency determination and integration
   It is how one node is connected to another. It is important to know if it’s mandatory or discretionary and if it’s source is internal or external
   An Mandatory dependency is one that cannot be broken
   Discretionary dependency can be moved if necessary, it is one that you’d like to keep, but if you’re running out of the short time, you can move them.
3. Leads and lags
   Lead: An activity is noved to start before it’s predecessor finishes, but usually adds risk to the project.
   Lag: Amount of time a successor activity must wait until its predecessor is done.
4. Project management information system(PMIS)
   Has the scheduling software used to create the network diagram.

output

1. Project schedule network diagrams
   A graphical representation of all the work that needs to be done and in what order.
2. Project documents updates.

Network diagram

Example:

Activity	Preceding Activities	Duration in Days
A	Start	9
B	A,C	3
C	Start	13
D	C	9
E	D	2
F	E	10
G	F	11
H	B,G	3

Estimate Activity Durations

Variables of Activity Durations

1. Assigned resources
2. Team member’s experience levels
3. Percentage of time the resources are assigned
4. Availablity

If team members don’t know the estimate for a particular activity, it’s best to include this in risk resevers.

Estimation Factors

1. Law of diminishing returns
2. Number of resources
3. Advances in technology
4. Staff motivation

ITTOs

Input

1. Schedule management plan
2. Scope baseline
   WBS dictionary
3. Activity list
4. Activity attributes
5. Resource requirement
6. Project team assignments
7. Resource calendars
   Show when the resources are available and for how long
8. Risk register
9. Milestone list
10. Resource breakdown structure
11. Assumption log
12. Lessons learned
13. EEFs
14. OPAs

Tools & Techniques

1. Expert judgment
2. Meetings
3. Estimating tools
   1. Analogous estimating
   2. Parametric estimating
   3. Three-point estimating
   4. Bottom-up estimating
4. Decision making
   1. Voting: Fist of five
5. Reserve analysis
   Also know as contingency or management reserves.

output

1. Duration estimates (Important)
2. Basis of estimates
3. Project document updates

Develop Schedule

Develop Schedule: process is critical to the project, It’s important to know what the team will be working on, when, and for how long.

ITTOs

Input

1. Schedule management plan
2. Scope baseline
3. Project document
   1. Activity list
   2. Activity attributes
   3. Duration estimates
   4. Network diagrams
   5. Resource calendars
   6. Project team assignments
   7. Risk register
   8. Assumption log
   9. Basis of estimates
   10. Lessons learned register
   11. Agreements
   12. Milestone list
4. EEFs
5. OPAs

Tools & Techniques

1. Schedule network analysis
   Technique used to identify early and late start dates, as well as early and late finish dates for each activity.
2. Critical path method (CPM)
   Calculation of the longest path in the diagram, representing the shortest amount of time the project can be done.
3. Float
   Flexibility in a schedule
4. Resource optimization
   Schedule adjustments made based on demand and supply of resources.
5. Data analysis
   1. What-if senario analysis
      The process of evaluating scenarios in order to predict their effect on project objectives.
   2. Simulation
6. Leads and lags
7. Schedule compression
   1. Crashing
      Adding resources to shortern the schedule duration
   2. Fast tracking
      Moving activities to start earlier than planned, in parallel with other activities
8. Project management information systems (PMIS)
9. Agile release planning.

output

1. Schedule baseline
2. Project schedule
   1. Bar charts
   2. Milestone charts
   3. Network diagrams
3. Schedule data
   Includes supporting details for resource requirements, best or worst case scenarios, and schedule reserves.
4. Project calendar
5. Change requests
6. Project management plan updates
7. Project documents updates

Network diagram: Critical path

Example:

Diagram:

Critical path

Critical Path:

1. The longest path in the network diagram.
2. Add durations of each path

So the critial path is 48.

Network diagram: Forward Pass

Forward Pass: Moves from start to finish, or left to right

$Forward=Earlystart+Duration-1$
$Totalforforwardpass=Criticalpath$

Network diagram: Backward pass

Backward pass: Moves from finish to start, or right to left.

$BackwardPass=LastDate-Duration+1$

Critical Path: Top number = Bottom number

Float: Time to move or delay activity without affecting the critical path.

Control schedule

Key: Make the project stays on track.

ITTOs

Input

1. Project management plan
   1. Schedule management plan
   2. Schedule baseline
   3. Scope baseline
   4. Performance measurement baseline
2. Work performance data
3. Project documents
   1. Project calendars
   2. Resource calendars
   3. Project schedule
   4. Schedule data
4. OPAs

Tools & Techniques

1. Data analysis
   1. Earned value analysis
      Calculates the schedule performance index (SPI), and schedule variance (SV) from baseline.
   2. Trend analysis
      Looks to see if the performance has changed over time.
   3. Performance reviews
   4. Varience analysis
   5. What-if scenario analysis
2. Critical path method
3. Project management information system (PMIS)
4. Resoure optimization
5. Leads and lags
6. Schedule compression

output

1. Work performance information
2. Schedule forecasts
3. Change requests
4. Project management plan updates
5. Project documents updates

Project Cost Management

Plan Cost Management

Plan Cost Management: An important process of defining how the project costs will be estimated, budgeted, managed, monitored, and controlled.

ITTOs

Input

1. Project charter
2. Project management plan
   1. Schedule management plan
   2. Risk management plan
3. EEFs
4. OPAs

Tools & Techniques

1. Expert judgment
2. Data analysis
3. Meetigs

output

1. Cost management plan

Estimate Costs

Estimating cost is important to making sure the project budget is based on accurate information. This ensures you’re spending the right amount of money at the right time. If estimates aren’t accurate, the project might run into cost overruns leading to change requests.

ITTOs

Input

1. Cost management plan
   Describes how the rest of the processes in this knowledge area is managed.
2. Quality management plan
3. Scope baseline
   1. Project scope statement
   2. WBS
   3. WBS dictionary
4. Project documents
   1. Project schedule
   2. Lessons learned register
   3. Resource requirements
   4. Risk register
5. EEFs
6. OPAs

Tools & Techniques

1. Expert judgement
2. Estimating tools
   1. Analogous estimating
   2. Parametric estimating
   3. Bottom-up estimating
   4. Three-point estimating
3. Data analysis
   1. Reserve analysis
      Also known as contingency reserves.
   2. Cost of quality (COQ)
   3. Alternatives analysis
4. Project management information system (PMIS)
5. Decision making
   1. Voting

output

1. Cost estimates
   1. Probable cause needed to complete the work
   2. Contingency and management reserve
2. Basis of estimates
   1. Assumptions
   2. Constraints
   3. Level of detail
   4. Ranges
   5. Confidence levels
3. Project documents updates.

Determine Budget

Project Budget: Funding used to execute the project.
Cost Baseline: Approved, time-phased project budget.

ITTOs

Input

1. Cost management plan
2. Scope baseline
   1. Project scope statement
   2. WBS
   3. WBS dictionary
3. Resource management plan
4. Project documents
   1. Basis of estimates
   2. Project schedule
   3. Risk register
5. Agreements
6. Business case
7. Benefits management plan
8. OPAs
9. EEFs

Tools & Techniques

1. Cost aggregation
   Adding up activity costs to reach a total cost of work packages.
2. Reserve analysis
   Data analysis tool used to determine the contingency and management reserves to cover unexpected work.
3. Historical information review
   1. Parametric estimating
   2. Analogous estimating
4. Funding limit reconciliation
   Examining funding restrictions for a period of time.
5. Financing
6. Expert judgement

output

1. Cost baseline
2. Project Budget

3. Project funding requirements
4. Project documents updates

Control costs

Control Costs: Process of monitoring a project to update costs and manamge cost baseline changes.

ITTOs

Input

1. Cost management plan
2. Cost baseline
3. Performance measurement baseline
4. Project funding requirements
   1. Projected expenditures (预期支出)
   2. Anticipated liabilities (预期负债)
5. Work performance data
6. Lessons learned register
7. OPAs

Tools & Techniques

1. Data analysis
   1. Earned value analysis
   2. Variance analysis
   3. Trend analysis
   4. Reserve analysis
2. Earned value, planned value and Actual costs
3. To-complete performance index (TCPI)
   Projection of cost performance the team needs to meet in order to meet the original plan.
4. Expert judgement
5. Project management information system (PMIS)

output

1. Cost forecasts
   1. Estimate at completion (EAC)
      Final cost of the project if performance stays the same until the end of the project.
   2. Estimate to completion (ETC)
      The expected cost to finish all remaining project work
2. Work performance information
3. Change requests
4. Project management plan updates
5. Project documents updates

Earned Value Formulas Example

BAC: Budget at completion
AC: Actual cost to date
EV: Earned value = Actual % of the work complete to date * BAC
PV: Planned value = Planned % of the work completion to data * BAC
CV: Cost variance = $EV-AC$
SV: Schedule variance = $EV-PV$
CPI: Cost performance index = $\frac{EV}{AC}$, The value of every dollar spent on project.
SPI: Schedule performance index = $\frac{EV}{PV}$, The value of every working day.

$CPI,SPI\{\begin{array}{ll}\ge 1,& GOOD\\ <1,& BAD\end{array}$

EAC: Estimate at completion = $\frac{BAC}{CPI}$
ETC: Estimate to completion = $EAC-AC$
VAC: Variance at completion = $BAC-EAC$
TCPI: To complete performance index = $\frac{BAC-EV}{BAC-AC}$

$TCPI\{\begin{array}{ll}\le 1,& GOOD\\ >1,& BAD\end{array}$

Example 1:

You have a construction project to be completed in 12 months. The total cost of the project is $100000 USD. Six months have passed. You have spent $60000 and the schedule says that 50% of the work should be completed. Upon closer review, you find that only 40% of the work has been completed.

Answer:
$BAC=100000$
$AC=60000$
$EV=0.4\ast 100000=40000$
$PV=0.5\ast 100000=50000$
$CV=40000-60000=-20000$
$SV=40000-50000=-10000$
$CPI=\frac{40000}{60000}=\frac{2}{3}=0.67$
$SPI=\frac{40000}{50000}=\frac{4}{5}=0.8$
$EAC=\frac{100000}{0.67}=149253.73$
$ETC=149253.73-60000=89253.73$
$VAC=100000-149253.73=-49253.73$
$TCPI=\frac{100000-40000}{100000-60000}=\frac{3}{2}=1.5$