Monte Carlo Simulation technique

什么是Monte Carlo Simulation?

Monte Carlo simulation is a method for iteratively evaluating a deterministic model using sets of random numbers as inputs. This method is often used when the model is complex, nonlinear, or involves more than just a couple uncertain parameters.

The Monte Carlo method is just one of many methods for analyzing uncertainty propagation, where the goal is to determine how random variation, lack of knowledge, or error affects the sensitivity, performance, or reliability of the system that is being modeled.

Monte Carlo simulation is categorized as a sampling method because the inputs are randomly generated from probability distributions to simulate the process of sampling from an actual population. So, we try to choose a distribution for the inputs that most closely matches data we already have, or best represents our current state of knowledge.

The data generated from the simulation(output) can be represented as probability distributions (or histograms) or converted to error bars, reliability predictions, tolerance zones, and confidence intervals. (See Figure 2).

这篇文章先是介绍了MC的一些基本概念，然后介绍了如何使用Excel进行销售预测分析。