【翻译】衡量大数据的真实价值（Measuring the True Value of Big Data）

              作者： Martin Fleming                             来源：Smarter Planet Blog

 

         在纽约时报最近的一片文章中，作者James Glanz问道：“大数据是不是一颗经济哑弹？”。Glanz 先生似乎对这个问题保持怀疑的态度。他说，“大数据时代”和早期制造业、家庭生活以及交通的变革不会很相似。

         另外，在华尔街日报发表的一篇博客讨论到，大数据正或者将要处于高德纳才“炒作周期”的峰值，大数据技术将要很快的跌入应有的幻觉破灭谷底期。

         对不确定的未来的怀疑和很自然的事，事实上，大数据正在为今天的商业和顾客提供着价值。以能源工业作为例子，美国能源工业的巨大转型预示着美国很快将要成为世界上最大的能源生产者。这项成功是建立在“水力压裂法”的基础上的。“水力压裂法”让大量的以前无法开采的烃化物得以开采，在某种程度上“水力压裂法”是使用百万计的传感器产生的大量的数据的结果来控制开发和生产。

         在另外一个相关产业中，全球的电力提供商正在部署智能电网，让管理电力的传输、分发和使用更加有效。最近的美国东北部大停电十周年纪念日同时暗示，经过十年电力工业已经开始了通过增加使用信息技术来强化电力基础设施的进程。现在输电和配电系统产生的海量数据明显降低了大规模停电的概率。

         另外，智能输电配电网络也同时提升了电力基础设施利用可再生能源发电的能力，如风能、太阳能等。虽然这些能源的使用还处于基础阶段，但是，大量减少使用化石能源的发电的可能性大大的增加了。

         在早期阶段的部署下，现在有成千上万的大数据工业应用。这些应用所产生的价值不在于他们产生的数据，而是数据的使用，通过分析技术驱动变化和变革是产生价值的主要途径。其价值不在数据本身，而是如何使用数据。

         因特网中流动着的上百万GB的数据，不仅仅商业机构从中获利，顾客也同样能从中获取利益。

         对于每个成功的工业应用来说，每天都有成千上万的顾客用它产生实质性收益。例如，在能源工业中，不断增长的能源供应保障和价格波动的降低利益，某种意义上是对顾客产生的利益。

         更加直接的，基于web应用的爆发为用户创造了更多的可以得到的数量、选择、方便以及质量的应用，结果使得用户的满意度大大提升。商业的评估标准在于增加收益和利润，用户的评估标准在于其满意度和所支付的价格，毕竟人人都喜欢便宜。

         快速增长的搜索工具让用户省时省力的找到他们想要的产品和服务的能力不断提升。搜索提供商，像谷歌、微软或者其他公司利用搜索产生的大量数据来提升和精炼他们提供的结果、算法及能力。顾客以极少或者无的代价提升了他们的搜索能力。

         同样，大数据函数应用通过网上零售给顾客带来的便利性和灵活性也是大步提升。成功的网上零售商，比如亚马逊和易趣网都在使用大数据应用来为用户持续的优化推荐结果，测试最受欢迎的价格，以及创造出新的推销主意。

         网上零售商、音乐网站以及其他的一些与产品相关的人部署的推荐系统，也行是大数据应用的最好例子。这些推荐引擎曾经是机器学习的先进研究课题。很明显，做出好的推荐的能力能够让古河的满意度和销售量同时增加。

         大数据的使用还处于初期阶段，随着大萧条和经济危机成为过去，随着美国和其他经济体系愈合，一个经济强势增长的时期即将到来。然而，当前的经济增长水平可能还是处于平均线以下，在将来的三、四个十年中，经济增长可能强大的多。随着大数据应用扮演主要角色，未来几十年将会发生一个巨大的全球性转变。根本的，世界上很多人的生活水平会大幅提升。

         在经济历史的一个类似点上，JohnMaynard Keynes在1931年写到：“发达国家的生活水平在未来100年内会相较今天增长4到8倍”一段时间后，大规模生产技术被开发出来，美国在82年后生活标准涨了6倍，在未来的几十年，大数据技术的应用，作为集成了世界的数字和物理的基础设施的一部分，也将开始产生类似的效果。

 

Measuring the True Value of Big Data

Author:Martin Fleming  Source: Smarter PlanetBlog

In a recent New York Times article,reporter James Glanz asks: “Is Big Data an Economic Dud?” Mr. Glanz seems toanswer his own question skeptically. The “data era,” he suggests, will notmatch the earlier revolutions in manufacturing, domestic life andtransportation.

In addition, the Wall Street Journal posted a blogdiscussing that Big Data is at, or near the peak of the Gartner “hype cycle”and “big data technologies are now soon to be due for a fall into the ‘troughof disillusionment.’”

While it’s easy to be skeptical about an uncertain future,in fact, Big Data is providingbusiness and consumer value today. Take for example the energy industry. Themassive transformation of the US energy industry means that the US will soonbecome the world’s largest energy producer. This success is built on the use ofhydraulicfracturing – or fracking – that has made vast amounts of formerlyinaccessible hydrocarbons profitable to extract. Fracking technology is, inpart, the result of the use of millions of sensors that generate massivevolumes of data that drive and govern exploration and production.

In a related industry, electric power suppliers around theworld are deploying smart grids to more effectively manage the transmission,distribution and use of power. The recent 10^th anniversary of theblackout that struck the northeast US is yet another reminder that over thedecade the industry has begun the process of strengthening the electric powerinfrastructure with increased use of information technology. Transmission anddistribution systems now produce massive volumes of data that significantlyreduce the probability of large scale blackouts.

In addition, smarter transmission and distribution gridshave also increased the ability of the electric power infrastructure to makeuse of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar. While the use of theseenergy sources is still in its infancy, the possibility of a significantreduction in fossil fuel use for power generation has been greatly enhanced.

There are, today, thousands of Big Data industryapplications in early stages of deployment. The value these applications createis not in the data but in the use of the data. The ability oforganizations to apply analytic skills to drive change and transformation isthe route to value creation. The value is not in the data, per se,but in its use.

With billions of gigabytes of data coursing through theinternet, it is not just the business sector benefiting from Big Data.Consumers are also benefiting.

For every successful industry application, there arethousands of consumers who are realizing substantial gains. In theenergy industry, for example, the benefits from increasingly secure energysupplies and reduced prices flow, in part, to consumers.

More directly, the explosion of web-based capabilities hascreated an enormous increase in the variety, choice, convenience and qualitythat consumers now have available. The result has been a significant increasein consumer satisfaction. While businesses measure value by increased revenueand profitability, consumers measure value by the satisfaction received overand above the price paid. Everybody loves a bargain.

The vast expansion of available searchtools has increased the ability of consumers to find products and services ofchoice with much less time and effort. Search providers – Google, Microsoft andothers – use the massive volumes of data generated from search to improve and refinetheir offerings, algorithms and capabilities. Consumers benefit from theimproved search at little to no cost to them.

Similarly, the step function increase in convenience andflexibility that online retailing has brought to consumers is also, in part, afunction of Big Data applications. Successful online retailers, such as Amazonand ebay, are using Big Data applications to continuously refine availableofferings, test the most responsive price points, and innovative new promotionideas.

Recommendation engines deployed by online retailers, musicsites and others that provide ideas about products that might be of interestare terrific examples of Big Data applications. These recommendation engines have been thesubject of much-advanced research in machine learning and data mining. Clearly,the ability to make good recommendations can increase sales and customersatisfaction.

The deployment of Big Data remains in its infancy. With theGreat Recession and financial crisis receding into the past and with the US andother economies well along the healing process, a period of stronger growth isahead. While growth will likely remain below average for the immediate future,three or four future decades of much stronger growth is probable. The decadesahead will be one of massive global transformation with Big Data applicationsplaying an increasing role. Ultimately, living standards will be increased formuch of the world’s population.

At a similar point in economic history, JohnMaynard Keynes in 1931 wrote: “the standard of life in progressivecountries100 years hence will be between four and eight times as highas it is today.” After a period in which mass production technology was broadlydeployed, the US standard of living 82 years later is six times higher. In thedecades ahead, the use of Big Data, as part of the integration of the world’sdigital and physical infrastructure, has already begun to deliver similargains.