Trick :无 trick，概率 DP

running_Turtle1

于 2024-06-30 21:56:08 发布

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分类专栏： Trick 文章标签：算法

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题目链接

E - Random Swaps of Balls (atcoder.jp)

Statements

Problem Statement

There are $N - 1$ white balls and one black ball. These $N$ balls are arranged in a row, with the black ball initially at the leftmost position.

Takahashi will perform the following operation exactly $K$ times.

Choose an integer uniformly at random between $1$ and $N$ , inclusive, twice. Let $a$ and $b$ the chosen integers. If $\neq b$ , swap the $a$ -th and $b$ -th balls from the left.

After $K$ operations, let the black ball be at the $x$ -th position from the left. Find the expected value of $x$ , modulo $998244353$ .

Solution

设 $dp_{i,j}$ 表示第 $i$ 轮黑球位于位置 $j$ 的概率

根据期望定义： $res=\sum_{i=1}^N dp_{i,j}*i$

发现 2 ~ N 其实是没有区别的位置，即：

$dp_{k,2}=dp_{k,3}=\cdots=dp_{k,N}$

所以：
$res=dp_{k,2}*\sum_{i=2}^N i+dp_{k,1}$

求 $dp_{k,2}$ 可以递推：

设 $\lambda$ 为黑球保持不变的概率，多少我忘了

这一轮位于 x =上一轮位于 x * 保持 + 上一轮不位于 * 交换

公式我也懒得写了

Code

#include<bits/stdc++.h>
using namespace std;
#define int long long

int const mod = 998244353;

int ksm(int a, int k, int p){
    int res = 1;
    a %= p;
    while(k){
        if(k & 1) res = res * a % p;
        k >>= 1;
        a = a * a % p;
    }
    return res;
}
int inv(int x){
    x %= mod;
    return ksm(x, mod - 2, mod);
}
int n, k;
void solve(){
    cin >> n >> k;
    int p = 2LL * inv(n * n) % mod;
    for(int i = 2; i <= k; i ++){
        int t1 = 2LL * inv(n * n) % mod;
        int t2 = ((n * n % mod - 2 * n) % mod + mod) % mod;
        t2 = t2 * inv(n * n) % mod;
        p = (t1 + t2 * p % mod) % mod;
    }
    int res = 0; 
    int tmp = ((n * (n + 1) % mod * inv(2LL) - 1) % mod + mod) % mod;
    res = tmp * p % mod; 

    (p = (n * n % mod - 2 * n + 2) % mod + mod) %= mod;
    p = p * inv(n * n) % mod;
    for(int i = 2; i <= k; i ++){
        int t1 = 2LL * inv(n * n) % mod;
        int t2 = ((n * n % mod - 2 * n) % mod + mod) % mod;
        t2 = t2 * inv(n * n) % mod;
        p = (t1 + t2 * p % mod) % mod;
    } 
    (res += p) %= mod;
    cout << res << '\n'; 
}

signed main(){
    ios::sync_with_stdio(false);
    cin.tie(0), cout.tie(0); 
    solve();
    return 0;
}