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2018
MCM/ICM
Summary Sheet
The impact of climatechange on regional instability model
Summary
Climate change couldindirectly affect every aspect of a country, we respectively from climatechange, society, economy, politics and the above three areas as the researchpoint, made a stability of the model can predict a country.
Task 1, multiple linear regression equation, use refer to four areas, as the independentvariable, used as the dependent variable of the country's fragile degree, witha on behalf of the seven continents, thenresearch the four areas of every continent, then calculate the comprehensivevulnerable degree value of the continents, the threshold threshold judging itsfragile state is divided into fragile is stable.
Task 2, verify the model, through the study of the judgmentof Syria's vulnerability, concluded its fragile degree, then don't considerclimate factor, again through the model calculation, it is concluded that thefragile degree is a more stable level.
Task 3: calculate the vulnerability of maldives, and use thetrend of rising trend of coastline as the critical point of research.
The fragile state of the critical value as a fixed value,the Asian climate dimensions according to the model calculation values, withthe ratio between the various indicators of climate change value calculation,it is concluded that the maldives coastline rise threshold.
Task 4, the economic loss value of China's new energyinvestment and restrictions is the total intervention cost of China.
Task 5, improve the model so that it can adapt to the use ofsmall areas.
The range of latitude and longitude is the study area, sothat the degree of vulnerability can be determined only by knowing the latitudeand longitude of the region.
KeyWords: multiple linear regression;Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation;Fragiledegrees;Heat map
Contents
3 Assumptions and Notations. 3
4 Model establishment and solution. 4
4.1 The establishment of mathematical models. 4
4.1.1 National vulnerability assessment model4
4.1.2 A model of the impact of climate change on national vulnerability. 6
4.1.3 Small regional or national vulnerability assessment model6
4.2 Solution and Application of Model6
4.2.1 Task 1: Build process of vulnerability model6
4.2.2 Task 2: Application of vulnerability model9
4.2.4 Task 4: Calculate China's intervention costs for climate change. 12
4.2.5 Task 5: Model improvement14
5 Strengths and Weaknesses. 16
1 Introduction
1.1 Background
Climate change is aproblem confronting all mankind, including increased droughts, meltingglaciers, rising sea levels and declining species richness. These frequentnatural disasters are changing people's way of life and bringing people andcountries alike Do not underestimate the harm. Among the many factors, factorsthat affect social and national stability in addition to climate are populationand social, economic, political, etc. In a vulnerable country, these factorsthemselves have little effect, but are weak In the case of governance or socialdivisions, these effects will be amplified and violent conflicts may arise. Inorder to prevent these phenomena from occurring, our group needs to integrate avariety of factors that can lead to national fragility and establish a nationalvulnerability judgment model.
1.2 Problem statement
Task1: Create a modelthat measures the vulnerability of a country from many aspects of climate andclimate, and models that establish whether a country is vulnerable ornon-vulnerable and that recognize how climate change is direct or Indirectlyaffect other factors and change the vulnerability of a country.
Task2: Choose one of the10 most vulnerable countries as your study to determine how climate change hasincreased the country's vulnerability and explain, according to your model, howthe vulnerability of this country diminishes without these climate factors of.
Task3: Select any countryother than the 10 most vulnerable countries as its research object, calculateits vulnerability, analyze how climate change has made this country more vulnerable,and then define a fragile critical point beyond which When the critical point,you can determine the country is vulnerable, and then predict when the countrycan reach this critical point.
Task4: Choose a countryas an effective policy intervention, analyze its valid reasons based on themodel, and predict the cost of the entire intervention.
Task5: Determine whetherthe above model can be used in smaller countries or regions, and if not,improve the model to use it in a smaller area.
2 Problem analysis
Task1: Fuzzyly evaluatethe stability of a country based on four aspects of climate, population andsocial, economic and political fields, and establish a multiple linearregression model. The model can determine whether a country's status is fragileor stable.
Task2: First, selectSyria as a vulnerable research country, and based on the task-1 model, draw theinfluence of climate factors on the vulnerability of Syria to calculate thevulnerable value; then set aside the climate factors and calculate thevulnerable value, compared with the previous value Analyze whether Syria'svulnerability can be significantly weakened.
Task3: Based on the Task1 model, the Maldives' stability coefficient, vulnerability factor andvulnerability threshold are derived. It is estimated at what time about theMaldives can exceed this critical point according to the trend of sea levelrise in recent years.
Task 4: The task ofinvestigating the impact of human intervention on national vulnerability can beconsidered in terms of both the cost of the climate change in the country andthe economic costs of the country after the intervention.
Task5: Determine whetherthe model can be applied in smaller areas. If not, you can make some improvements:narrowing the scope of research and changing from the original research area ofthe continent to the latitude and longitude area, so you only need to knowone area The span of latitude and longitude can determine its stability, moreable to determine the stability of small areas.
3 Assumptions and Notations
3.1 Assumptions
· Suppose the influence ofclimate on national stability is , the weight of population and social field is , the weight of economic field is , and the weight of the political field is .
· Suppose we do notconsider the population living in the seven oceans.
· Suppose the risk factorfor sea level rise over time is, which is.
· Suppose China's GDP isstill going to be $7187.51billion a year.
· Suppose China'sinvestment in new energy is still $70.4 billion a year.
3.2 Notations
Symbol Definition |
Fragile degrees |
Climate areas |
Climate areas |
Economy areas |
political arena |
Asia |
Africa |
North America |
Antarctica |
Oceania |
European |
South America |
Stability threshold |
years |
Stability factor 0.05 |
Fragile degrees |
Correlation coefficient between coastal erosion and national |
vulnerability |
The degree of drought is related to the national vulnerability |
Table 1: Notations
4 Model establishment and solution
4.1 The establishment ofmathematical models
4.1.1 Nationalvulnerability assessment model
a) mathematical model:
b) According to Figure 1: Line chart:
Come to judge the threshold:
Figure 1: Vulnerability chart on fivecontinents
4.1.2 A model of theimpact of climate change on national vulnerability
mathematical model :
4.1.3 Small regionalor national vulnerability assessment model
mathematical model :
4.2 Solution and Application ofModel
4.2.1 Task 1: Buildprocess of vulnerability model
a) Theoretical model
Taking the continents as the research object,starting from the four dimensions of each continent, the data are drawnaccording to the different color distributions of the thermograms, and therelevant strength indices of each dimension of each continent are obtainedafter the statistics are made. Based on the comprehensive strength index, astability judgment raft value is obtained. Based on the continent in which acountry is located, the sum of its vulnerability data is obtained. Based onthis value, it is judged whether it is fragile or stable.
b) Mathematical model
Ⅰ. Climate change dimension
Thegeographical location of different countries is different, so the impact causedby climate change is also different. Drought causes the shortage of freshwater resources.The large area covered by glaciers is more likely to be affected by temperaturerise. Increasing sea level will increase the risk of tsunami in coastal areas.Large, while the greater the species richness the stronger the country'sstability.
Wedetermine mainly the extent of climate change in this country based on thecountry's geographical location. Figure 2: Global Drought Distribution, Figure4: Global Drought Distribution, Figure 5: Global Species Richness Distribution,and Figure 6: Global Glacier Coverage Distribution, Figure 7: The rise of sealevel in several major areas to consider.
Figure 7: rising sealevels
Basedon the above distribution chart, different colors represent differentdistributions of influence. Taking the seven continents as the research object,the following statistical data are obtained:
Table 1: the global climate change ratio statistics
| Degree of temperature rise | Drought distribution | Drought trend | Species richness | Glacier distribution | Trend of rising sea levels | Sum | Proportion |
Asian | 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 15.2 | 0.164 |
Africa | 2.5 | 4.3 | 4 | 4.3 | 0 | 0.6 | 15.7 | 0.169 |
North America | 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2 | 0.7 | 14.3 | 0.154 |
Antarctica | 3.2 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 5 | 1.3 | 10.1 | 0.109 |
Oceania | 2 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 13.2 | 0.142 |
European | 1.5 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 10.4 | 0.112 |
South America | 3 | 2 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 13.5 | 0.146 |
Ⅱ. Population and social dimensions
Figure8: Distribution of infant survival rates across continents, Figure 9:Distribution of educational attainment, and Figure 10: Religious culturaldistribution for fuzzy estimates.
Themain factors: infant mortality, education, religion and culture. Judging fromthe color distribution of all continents, the following statistical tables areobtained:
Table 2 :all continents ratio statistics on variousaspects of population and social dimension
| Infant mortality rate | Global education distribution | Distribution of global religious culture | sum | poration |
Asian | 4.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 16.6 | 0.185 |
Africa | 8.2 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 18.1 | 0.201 |
North America | 2.3 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 17 | 0.189 |
Antarctica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Oceania | 1.6 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 11.1 | 0.124 |
European | 1.3 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 15.5 | 0.173 |
South America | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 11.5 | 0.128 |
Ⅲ. The economic dimension
The main influencing factors: per capita gross national product, economicequality.
According to Figure 11: 2014 World Wealth Map and Figure 12: EconomicEquity Distribution Map for Fuzzy Estimation.
Based on the above colordistribution, the following approximate estimates are obtained:
Table 3: the continents economic dimension everyaspect ratio statistics
| Distribution of wealth | Degree of economic balance | Sum | Propotion |
Asian | 1.9 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 0.166 |
Africa | 1.4 | 2.6 | 4 | 0.13 |
North America | 3.8 | 2.7 | 6.5 | 0.211 |
Antarctica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Oceania | 3.7 | 2.5 | 6.2 | 0.201 |
European | 2.3 | 2.4 | 4.7 | 0.153 |
South America | 1.9 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 0.14 |
Ⅳ. The political dimension
Influencing factors:level of democracy and separatism.
A rough estimate is based on Figure 13:Horizontal distribution of world levels of democracy and Figure 14: Number ofreports of terrorism-related incidents.
Based on the above colordistribution, a rough estimate of the statistics:
Table 4: all continents ratio statistics on variousaspects of population and social dimension
| Level of democracy | Incidence of terrorist events | Sum | Proportion |
Asian | 4..4 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 0.145 |
Africa | 3.9 | 4.7 | 8.6 | 0.152 |
North America | 6.6 | 3.6 | 10.2 | 0.18 |
Antarctica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Oceania | 9.5 | 2.6 | 11.1 | 0.197 |
European | 6.1 | 1.6 | 10.7 | 0.19 |
South America | 6 | 1.6 | 7.6 | 0.135 |
4.2.2 Task 2: Applicationof vulnerability model
Analysis: Most of theinstability in many countries is caused by environmental instability. We takeSyria, one of the ten most vulnerable countries as a research object, toillustrate the adverse effects of climate change on Syria.
From Figure 15, Syria'sgeographical location map shows that Syria is characterized by high temperatureand drought throughout the year, with scarce precipitation and no glacier-relatedfactors. Its landform mainly consists of grasslands and deserts.
According to relevantstatistics, this three-year drought caused millions of Syrian farmers to gobankrupt and become eco-refugees, migrating from the vast rural areas of Syriato urban areas to escape the famine and laying the foundation for the ensuingcrisis. .
In summary, Syria'sdroughts and rising sea levels directly affect the vulnerability of Syria.
From Tasks I know Asia'sclimate dimension is as follows:
Table 5: Asian climate dimensions judge fares
| Degree of temperature rise | Drought distribution | Drought trend | Species richness | Glacier distribution | Trend of rising sea levels | Sum | Proportion |
Asian | 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 15.2 | 0.164 |
Syria belongs to Asia andfrom the task-one model it can be drawn:
According to thethreshold, we can see Syria is an unstable country.
When considering climatefactors, the Asian climate dimension index is as follows:
Table 6:the table of don't consider climate factorswhen Asian climate dimensions judge fares
| Degree of temperature rise | Drought distribution | Drought trend | Species richness | Glacier distribution | Trend of rising sea levels | Sum | Proportion |
Asian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0 | 4.9 | 0.052 |
According to a task modelcan be drawn:
Therefore concluded thatwhen not to consider climate factors, also won't consider the dimension ofdrought climate and sea level factors, then value will be smaller, also leadsto the total value of stability coefficient of smaller, increased stability.
4.2.3 Task 3: Predicting the impactof climate change on thevulnerability of Maldives
Select the Maldives as a research country Maldivesbelongs to Asia, the task of a model can be drawn from the Maldives stabilitycoefficient:
The rise of sea level factor index in the Asianclimate dimension caused by climate change increased , which resulted in the increase of value, and thestability of the islands in maldives decreased.So the rise of the coastline isa major factor in the vulnerability of maldives.
According to the task1 threshold value exceeds 0.18, it has exceeded the maximum instability, andbased on the model, the model is obtained
Conclusion:
Therefore, the comprehensive dimensionof Asia must not exceed the value of . The value of this value isdeviated from the value of the task, so the proportional value between eachindex of climatic factors is calculated and the critical value is obtained.
Table 7: Numerical statistical table of eachindicator of climatic factors
| Degree of temperature rise | Drought distribution | Drought trend | Species richness | Glacier distribution | Trend of rising sea levels | Sum |
Asian | 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 15.2 |
Proportion | 0.197 | 0.19 | 0.211 | 0.243 | 0.078 | 0.078 | 0.997 |
So draw the followingproportional model:
Get the coastlinethreshold：
So when the coastlineis up to , the maldives will enter very unstable country, and is thevulnerable threshold of the Maldives.
According tostatistics, the Maldives consists of 1,200 islands, but these islands averageonly 18.2m away from the sea level.
Figure 16: sea level risetrend chart
According to Figure 16: Sea-level risetrend chart shows that sea level will rise in a year, so the average annualrise is .
The current climate indexof Asia based on task one is as follows:
Table 8:Asian climate dimensions judge fares
| Degree of temperature rise | Drought distribution | Drought trend | Species richness | Glacier distribution | Trend of rising sea levels | Sum | Proportion |
Asian | 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 15.2 | 0.164 |
The sea level rise trend value is , assuming that the risk factor for sea level rise over timeis , then the following proportional model:
Inferred
Therefore,the Maldives will enter an extremely vulnerable country after about 63.8 years.
4.2.4 Task 4: Calculate China's intervention costsfor climate change
Ⅰ. Analysis
Inresponse to global climate change, China has mainly made the following efforts:
First,develop new technologies and improve energy efficiency.
Second,to develop low-carbon and renewable energy and improve the energy mix.
Third,carry out afforestation, strengthen ecological construction and protection.
Fourth,the implementation of family planning, effective control of population growth.
Fifth,the introduction of restrictions on industrial, automobile and other pollutionemissions regulations.
Thesemeasures from the energy structure, ecological environment, population control,legal, significantly decreased in the model dimension(climate change), (population and social dimension), (dimensions) economic value, thus reducing thestability factor , makes China more stable.
Ⅱ. Predicted cost
Starting from the above four directions, there aremainly two aspects that the government should pay when it comes to tacklingclimate change:
1. The cost of developing new technologies.
2. The restrictions on the economy have a negativeimpact.
As can be seen from the data in Figure 17, Chinainvested 352.2 billion U.S. dollars in developing new energy sources in thepast five years, with an average annual investment of 70.4 billion U.S. dollarsin new energy sources, and is still on an upward trend in investment trends.
The limit is to reduce the use of fossil fuels, the statistics from theabove can be drawn:
In the recent 10 years, when the percentage of China's fossil energy useis reduced by a factor of 5, the GDP has been reduced by 4%. The coefficient ofinfluence of fossil energy on GDP is 0.36%.
Figure 18:GDP and coaluse growth in china
According to Figure 18 statistics released by China's national bureau ofstatistics, China's gross domestic product in the last decade is about 71875.1billion dollars.So nearly ten years due to the introduction of restrictiveregulations, China's economic losses as follows: billion dollars
The average annual economic loss is：billion dollars
So China's cost and economic loss is about billiondollars
4.2.5 Task 5: Model improvement
Our model is not suitable for use in smaller regionsor countries because our method is a fuzzy evaluation method based on data fromfive continents. To predict the stability of a country, we can only obscure thecontinents to which it belongs judgment.
In order tobe able to judge smaller countries or regions, we have made the followingimprovements to our model: Using latitude and longitude as the researchvariables, we have different fragile thresholds for different latitudes andlongitudes, and then pass the latitude and longitude of a smaller region orcountry Judge its stability.
Because the subject of ourstudy is the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of a country, wemainly study the effects of two major aspects of coastline erosion and droughton a latitude and longitude region. Assuming that the coefficient ofcorrelation between coastline erosion and national vulnerability is . Correlation coefficientbetween degree of drought and national vulnerability is : Establishmultiple linear regression model as follows.
The values of these two coefficients are estimatedfrom the distribution of global drought levels and Figure 19: RegionsVulnerable to Sea Level Rise. The criterion is the length of the coastline andthe degree of drought in different dimensions.
The national vulnerability index is given by thehazard thermodynamic map and the latitude and longitude map of the world.
Figure 19:RegionsVulnerable to Sea Level Rise
Figure 3 from Task 1: Global Climate DroughtDistribution Map ：
Therefore, according to the latitude and longitudeof a country or region can know the and values, it can be derived more accuratevulnerability value.
5 Strengths and Weaknesses
5.1 Strengths
From the point of view of climate change, populationand social, economic and political dimensions, we draw on the followingadvantages of our model:
Concision:
Our model does not have complicated mathematicalmodels, does not require inputting a large amount of data,but only knows the continent in which a country is located and directly judgesits stability through a stability judgment threshold that we have developed.
Exactness:
Our model is highly accurate, and we focus on eachof the continents, and in the research we proceed from the four aspects ofclimate, population and social, economic and political areas, and analyze indetail the important influencing factors in each area, Established multiplelinear regression model, fuzzy evaluation of a country's stability, can moreaccurately determine the stability of a country.
In view of the different territorial areas, we havemade an improvement on the model of Task 1, and have come to the model of thejudgment of stability in countries and regions with smaller territories, thatis, the model of Task Five.
5.2 Weaknesses
1. The weights of the four dimensions of the modelon the stability of the country are directly assumed by us, which deviate fromthe actual weights.
2. When judging the stability of a country, which follows the stabilityof the continent on which it is located, its accuracy is low when it comes tojudging a country with a small territory. The model for task 1 is moreappropriate to judge like the United States, China, Russia, a country with alarger territory.
3. The proportion of each factor data is obtained by observing the heatmap, rather than the laws derived from direct data statistics, which directlyreduces the accuracy of the judgment.
6 Future work
First, we can consider more factors to judge thestability of a country, not just from climate change, economy, society andpolitics.
Second,find more data to come up with more accurate laws, rather than just observingthe color of hot springs to determine the weight of each factor in variousregions.
Finally,narrow the scope of the study so that the stability of the country can bejudged simply by the latitude and longitude of the country in which it islocated.
Weare sorry for the lack of time to do these things due to time constraints, butthese ideas deserve our consideration and our model can become more useful asthese ideas are completed.
7 Conclusion
1. When we know the continent where a country islocated, we look for the corresponding thresholds for each of our continents intask one and enter the multiple linear regression model for task one to obtainthe stability value, and then judge the stability based on the vulnerabilitythreshold degree.
2.Knowing the sea-level rise in a given area can determine how many years thesea-level rise will have made the country extremely vulnerable.
3.If we want to calculate the value of a city or a smaller area to determine thestability of the task through the five models can be drawn, but we did notcontinue to study the stability threshold to determine the interval.
References
[1] Peter Schwartz，Doug Randall. An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario andIts Implications for United States National Security October 2003
[2] Jiang Tong, Xiucang Li,Qingchen Chao,JiashuangYuan,Erda Lin.The 2014: climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability ofthe main conclusion and the new cognition
[3]Amy Krakowka Richmond,Francis Galgano. ModelingEnvironmental Security in Sub-Saharan Africa
[4]Qing Pei. Historical climate change and socialeconomic development of the causal relationship between empirical research arereviewed
[5]Zhang Hailing Liu Changxin, Wang Zheng. Thecomprehensive evaluation model of climate change research progress of lossfunction [J]. Research progress on climate change, 2018, 14 (1) : 40 to 49
[6]Pei Q, Zhang D D, Lee H F, et al. Climate changeand macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial Europe [J]. PLoS ONE, 2014, 9 (2):e88155
Appendix:
Figure 2: map of theimpact of global temperature rise on countries in different regions
Figure 3: global droughtdistribution
Figure 4: distribution ofglobal drought trends.
Figure 5: distribution ofspecies richness
Figure 6: global map ofglaciers
Figure 8: distribution ofsurvival rate of infants
Figure 9: global exposureto education
Figure 10: distributionof global religious culture
Figure 11 :world wealthdistribution in 14 years
Figure 12: distribution of economic equality
Figure 13: map of thelevel of world democracy
Figure 14: the number ofterrorism-related incidents
Figure 15: location mapof Syria
Figure 17: China and eunew energy investment comparison chart
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