01_Linear_Model(线性模型)

线性模型蕴涵了机器学习中一些重要的基本思想。
通过在线性模型中引入层次结构或高维映射，就可以得到更为强大的非线性模型（nonlinear model）。
此外，线性模型也具有很好的可解释性（comprehensibility）。

一般的机器学习过程:
1. DataSet
2. model
3. Training
4. inferring

如上图中的Linear Model:y=xw，我们通过左边表中的x，y来训练出w的值，然后通过训练出的w的值来预测出当x=4时，y=?

如上图，我们可以在坐标中把相应的x，y标出来，可以看到前三个数据的真实的线性表示。

然后机器去猜测w的值，蓝色和绿色的线为猜测所得的线，每条线都会有相应的w值，当预测的y和真实的y差值无限接近于0时，猜测的w越可靠。


如上图，Loss=(预测y-真实y)(预测y-真实y)。mean=Loss/n , n为数据的个数。
上图中的例子代码实现如下:其中w用穷举法得出

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

x_data=[1.0, 2.0, 3.0]
y_data=[2.0, 4.0, 6.0]

def forward(x):
    return x*w

def loss(x,y):
    y_pred = forward(x)
    return (y_pred - y)*(y_pred - y)

w_list=[]
mse_list=[]

for w in np.arange(0.0,4.1,0.1):
    print('w=',w)
    l_sum = 0
    for x_val,y_val in zip(x_data,y_data):
        y_pred_val = forward(x_val)
        loss_val = loss(x_val,y_val)
        l_sum+=loss_val
        print('\t',x_val,y_val,y_pred_val,loss_val)
    mse=l_sum/3
    print('MSE=',mse)
    w_list.append(w)
    mse_list.append(mse)

w= 0.0
	 1.0 2.0 0.0 4.0
	 2.0 4.0 0.0 16.0
	 3.0 6.0 0.0 36.0
MSE= 18.666666666666668
w= 0.1
	 1.0 2.0 0.1 3.61
	 2.0 4.0 0.2 14.44
	 3.0 6.0 0.30000000000000004 32.49
MSE= 16.846666666666668
w= 0.2
	 1.0 2.0 0.2 3.24
	 2.0 4.0 0.4 12.96
	 3.0 6.0 0.6000000000000001 29.160000000000004
MSE= 15.120000000000003
w= 0.30000000000000004
	 1.0 2.0 0.30000000000000004 2.8899999999999997
	 2.0 4.0 0.6000000000000001 11.559999999999999
	 3.0 6.0 0.9000000000000001 26.009999999999998
MSE= 13.486666666666665
w= 0.4
	 1.0 2.0 0.4 2.5600000000000005
	 2.0 4.0 0.8 10.240000000000002
	 3.0 6.0 1.2000000000000002 23.04
MSE= 11.946666666666667
w= 0.5
	 1.0 2.0 0.5 2.25
	 2.0 4.0 1.0 9.0
	 3.0 6.0 1.5 20.25
MSE= 10.5
w= 0.6000000000000001
	 1.0 2.0 0.6000000000000001 1.9599999999999997
	 2.0 4.0 1.2000000000000002 7.839999999999999
	 3.0 6.0 1.8000000000000003 17.639999999999993
MSE= 9.146666666666663
w= 0.7000000000000001
	 1.0 2.0 0.7000000000000001 1.6899999999999995
	 2.0 4.0 1.4000000000000001 6.759999999999998
	 3.0 6.0 2.1 15.209999999999999
MSE= 7.886666666666666
w= 0.8
	 1.0 2.0 0.8 1.44
	 2.0 4.0 1.6 5.76
	 3.0 6.0 2.4000000000000004 12.959999999999997
MSE= 6.719999999999999
w= 0.9
	 1.0 2.0 0.9 1.2100000000000002
	 2.0 4.0 1.8 4.840000000000001
	 3.0 6.0 2.7 10.889999999999999
MSE= 5.646666666666666
w= 1.0
	 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0
	 2.0 4.0 2.0 4.0
	 3.0 6.0 3.0 9.0
MSE= 4.666666666666667
w= 1.1
	 1.0 2.0 1.1 0.8099999999999998
	 2.0 4.0 2.2 3.2399999999999993
	 3.0 6.0 3.3000000000000003 7.289999999999998
MSE= 3.779999999999999
w= 1.2000000000000002
	 1.0 2.0 1.2000000000000002 0.6399999999999997
	 2.0 4.0 2.4000000000000004 2.5599999999999987
	 3.0 6.0 3.6000000000000005 5.759999999999997
MSE= 2.986666666666665
w= 1.3
	 1.0 2.0 1.3 0.48999999999999994
	 2.0 4.0 2.6 1.9599999999999997
	 3.0 6.0 3.9000000000000004 4.409999999999998
MSE= 2.2866666666666657
w= 1.4000000000000001
	 1.0 2.0 1.4000000000000001 0.3599999999999998
	 2.0 4.0 2.8000000000000003 1.4399999999999993
	 3.0 6.0 4.2 3.2399999999999993
MSE= 1.6799999999999995
w= 1.5
	 1.0 2.0 1.5 0.25
	 2.0 4.0 3.0 1.0
	 3.0 6.0 4.5 2.25
MSE= 1.1666666666666667
w= 1.6
	 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.15999999999999992
	 2.0 4.0 3.2 0.6399999999999997
	 3.0 6.0 4.800000000000001 1.4399999999999984
MSE= 0.746666666666666
w= 1.7000000000000002
	 1.0 2.0 1.7000000000000002 0.0899999999999999
	 2.0 4.0 3.4000000000000004 0.3599999999999996
	 3.0 6.0 5.1000000000000005 0.809999999999999
MSE= 0.4199999999999995
w= 1.8
	 1.0 2.0 1.8 0.03999999999999998
	 2.0 4.0 3.6 0.15999999999999992
	 3.0 6.0 5.4 0.3599999999999996
MSE= 0.1866666666666665
w= 1.9000000000000001
	 1.0 2.0 1.9000000000000001 0.009999999999999974
	 2.0 4.0 3.8000000000000003 0.0399999999999999
	 3.0 6.0 5.7 0.0899999999999999
MSE= 0.046666666666666586
w= 2.0
	 1.0 2.0 2.0 0.0
	 2.0 4.0 4.0 0.0
	 3.0 6.0 6.0 0.0
MSE= 0.0
w= 2.1
	 1.0 2.0 2.1 0.010000000000000018
	 2.0 4.0 4.2 0.04000000000000007
	 3.0 6.0 6.300000000000001 0.09000000000000043
MSE= 0.046666666666666835
w= 2.2
	 1.0 2.0 2.2 0.04000000000000007
	 2.0 4.0 4.4 0.16000000000000028
	 3.0 6.0 6.6000000000000005 0.36000000000000065
MSE= 0.18666666666666698
w= 2.3000000000000003
	 1.0 2.0 2.3000000000000003 0.09000000000000016
	 2.0 4.0 4.6000000000000005 0.36000000000000065
	 3.0 6.0 6.9 0.8100000000000006
MSE= 0.42000000000000054
w= 2.4000000000000004
	 1.0 2.0 2.4000000000000004 0.16000000000000028
	 2.0 4.0 4.800000000000001 0.6400000000000011
	 3.0 6.0 7.200000000000001 1.4400000000000026
MSE= 0.7466666666666679
w= 2.5
	 1.0 2.0 2.5 0.25
	 2.0 4.0 5.0 1.0
	 3.0 6.0 7.5 2.25
MSE= 1.1666666666666667
w= 2.6
	 1.0 2.0 2.6 0.3600000000000001
	 2.0 4.0 5.2 1.4400000000000004
	 3.0 6.0 7.800000000000001 3.2400000000000024
MSE= 1.6800000000000008
w= 2.7
	 1.0 2.0 2.7 0.49000000000000027
	 2.0 4.0 5.4 1.960000000000001
	 3.0 6.0 8.100000000000001 4.410000000000006
MSE= 2.2866666666666693
w= 2.8000000000000003
	 1.0 2.0 2.8000000000000003 0.6400000000000005
	 2.0 4.0 5.6000000000000005 2.560000000000002
	 3.0 6.0 8.4 5.760000000000002
MSE= 2.986666666666668
w= 2.9000000000000004
	 1.0 2.0 2.9000000000000004 0.8100000000000006
	 2.0 4.0 5.800000000000001 3.2400000000000024
	 3.0 6.0 8.700000000000001 7.290000000000005
MSE= 3.780000000000003
w= 3.0
	 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.0
	 2.0 4.0 6.0 4.0
	 3.0 6.0 9.0 9.0
MSE= 4.666666666666667
w= 3.1
	 1.0 2.0 3.1 1.2100000000000002
	 2.0 4.0 6.2 4.840000000000001
	 3.0 6.0 9.3 10.890000000000004
MSE= 5.646666666666668
w= 3.2
	 1.0 2.0 3.2 1.4400000000000004
	 2.0 4.0 6.4 5.760000000000002
	 3.0 6.0 9.600000000000001 12.96000000000001
MSE= 6.720000000000003
w= 3.3000000000000003
	 1.0 2.0 3.3000000000000003 1.6900000000000006
	 2.0 4.0 6.6000000000000005 6.7600000000000025
	 3.0 6.0 9.9 15.210000000000003
MSE= 7.886666666666668
w= 3.4000000000000004
	 1.0 2.0 3.4000000000000004 1.960000000000001
	 2.0 4.0 6.800000000000001 7.840000000000004
	 3.0 6.0 10.200000000000001 17.640000000000008
MSE= 9.14666666666667
w= 3.5
	 1.0 2.0 3.5 2.25
	 2.0 4.0 7.0 9.0
	 3.0 6.0 10.5 20.25
MSE= 10.5
w= 3.6
	 1.0 2.0 3.6 2.5600000000000005
	 2.0 4.0 7.2 10.240000000000002
	 3.0 6.0 10.8 23.040000000000006
MSE= 11.94666666666667
w= 3.7
	 1.0 2.0 3.7 2.8900000000000006
	 2.0 4.0 7.4 11.560000000000002
	 3.0 6.0 11.100000000000001 26.010000000000016
MSE= 13.486666666666673
w= 3.8000000000000003
	 1.0 2.0 3.8000000000000003 3.240000000000001
	 2.0 4.0 7.6000000000000005 12.960000000000004
	 3.0 6.0 11.4 29.160000000000004
MSE= 15.120000000000005
w= 3.9000000000000004
	 1.0 2.0 3.9000000000000004 3.610000000000001
	 2.0 4.0 7.800000000000001 14.440000000000005
	 3.0 6.0 11.700000000000001 32.49000000000001
MSE= 16.84666666666667
w= 4.0
	 1.0 2.0 4.0 4.0
	 2.0 4.0 8.0 16.0
	 3.0 6.0 12.0 36.0
MSE= 18.666666666666668

Process finished with exit code 0

可以很快看出，当MSE(mean)的值=0 时结果最好，此时w=2。w=2就是我们猜测的模型中的w的值。