概率编程——Figaro的HelloWorld示例

概率编程——Figaro的HelloWorld示例

0. 导包

import com.cra.figaro.algorithm.factored.VariableElimination
import com.cra.figaro.language.{Flip, Select}
import com.cra.figaro.library.compound.If

1. 定义概率模型

  // 今天天气的概率：晴天0.9，不是晴天0.1
  val sunnyToday = Flip(0.9)

  val greetToday = If(sunnyToday,
    // 如果今天是晴天：说Hello的概率是0.6，说Howdy的概率是0.4
    Select(0.6 -> "Hello World!", 0.4 -> "Howdy, universe!"),
    // 如果今天不是晴天：说Hello的概率是0.2，说Howdy的概率是0.8
    Select(0.2 -> "Hello World!", 0.8 -> "Howdy, universe!"))

  val sunnyTomorrow = If(sunnyToday,
    // 如果今天是晴天：明天是晴天的概率是0.8
    Flip(0.8),
    // 如果今天是晴天：明天是晴天的概率是0.05
    Flip(0.05))

  val greetingTomorrow = If(sunnyTomorrow,
    // 如果明天是晴天：说Hello的概率是0.6，说Howdy的概率是0.4
    Select(0.6 -> "Hello World!", 0.4 -> "Howdy, universe!"),
    // 如果明天是晴天：说Hello的概率是0.2，说Howdy的概率是0.8
    Select(0.2 -> "Hello World!", 0.8 -> "Howdy, universe!"))

2. 推测方法

• 预测今天的问候语

  def predict(): Unit = {
    val result = VariableElimination.probability(greetToday, "Hello World!")
    println(s"Today's greeting is \'Hello World\' with probability $result.")
  }

• 根据今天问候语是Hello World这一事实，推断今天的天气

  def infer(): Unit = {
    greetToday.observe("Hello World!")
    val result = VariableElimination.probability(sunnyToday, true)
    println("If today's greeting is \'Hello World\', " +
      s"today's weather is sunny with probability $result.")
  }

• 根据今天问候语是Hello World这一事实，预测明天的问候语

  def learnAndPredict(): Unit = {
    greetToday.observe("Hello World!")
    val result = VariableElimination.probability(greetingTomorrow, "Hello World!")
    println("If today's greeting is \'Hello World\', " +
      s"tomorrow's greeting will be \'Hello World\' with probability $result.")
  }

3. Main 预测

  def main(args: Array[String]): Unit = {
    predict()

    infer()

    learnAndPredict()
  }