对电力系统的敏感性测试的必要性和方法汇总

个人论文笔记

What Is the Reserves-to-Production Ratio?
The reserves-to-production ratio is an estimate of the number of years that the site of a natural resource will continue to be productive based on current production rates.

The ratio is used to forecast many business factors such as the total income that can be expected to be earned from the source and the number of employees needed over its active lifespan. It also is a key factor in determining whether further exploration is needed to identify new sources of the natural resource.

INNER WORKINGS OF A COMBINED-CYCLE POWER PLANT
A combined-cycle power plant uses both a gas and a steam turbine together to produce up to 50 percent more electricity from the same fuel than a traditional simple-cycle plant. The waste heat from the gas turbine is routed to the nearby steam turbine, which generates extra power.

分析平台和方法

平台：After two years of research and market validation, Pythias Analytics, LLC was jointly established in July 2020 by HARC and university partners. Pythias delivers expert-led, innovative, and optimized solutions to help the power sector prepare for and adapt to future climate risks. By developing tools that incorporate climate scenarios into grid modeling, energy managers in Texas and elsewhere will have the resources to build a resilient electricity supply in the future. (harc)
Resources are available

For the last few years, a significant amount of work has been done looking at climate risk impacts on the energy sector. The Department of Energy and the National Academies of Science have published a multitude of reports on the coming climate risk to our power sector:

State Energy Resilience Framework — Argonne National Lab;
Power Sector Resilience Planning Guidebook — National Renewable Energy Lab; and
US Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather — US DOE.
The Pacific Northwest National Lab has been developing the IM3, an integrated modeling effort to help researchers better understand climate risk to the power sector.

HARC, the Houston Advanced Research Center, has been developing its climate risk analytics platform, Pythias Analytics, to help energy planners and utilities better assess their climate risk.

Recommendations

Winter Storm Uri has resulted in a humanitarian crisis for the state of Texas. Millions were without power, heat, and water for several days, and each of Texas’ 254 counties was affected in some way. We must focus our efforts on helping our communities to recover and to get people back to their normal lives. As we move forward, steps can be taken to mitigate the risk of future extreme weather events. The data and models tell us such events are coming. Unlike the 2011 winter outage events, our state leaders should pay attention to these signs and take appropriate steps to safeguard our communities and lessen the disastrous impacts of future events. Some recommendations for the PUCT, ERCOT, Texas Railroad Commission, and our state and federal policymakers follow:

Currently, most of Texas is an electric power island, isolated from the rest of the country. ERCOT should look seriously at interconnecting to the Eastern Connection and/or Western Connection.
Conduct a full system-wide risk assessment of climate risk threats to the power system. The National Renewable Energy Lab has a nice do-it-yourself guide that should be referenced.
Include climate data and modeling in energy planning, particularly in ERCOT’s Long-Term System Assessment.
Require all power generators and energy producers (including the natural gas system) in the state to meet minimum resilience standards. A good place to start is the DOE’s State Energy Resilience Framework.
Specific to communities, state and local leaders should require Passive Survivability — extreme weatherization of homes — to help people shelter in place in a safe environment when the power goes out, whether due to extreme heat or cold, hurricanes, floods, etc. Increasing the state’s energy efficiency resource standard (EERS) can also go a long way to ensure funding is available to do this. You can learn more at HARC’s Passive Survivability How-to-Guide. (harc)

从得州入手分析新能源前景
国产电车分析电替代可行性及新能源前景
两种前景的差别和造成因素

Salon: sensor reroute
The Texas Tribune: 商业竞争本质
Austin American-Statesman:
USA Today: ERCOT每年向PUC提交报告，但是这并未成功应对极端情况；能源加容量市场的构建
In an “energy plus capacity” market, they also would be compensated for generating capacity that’s maintained but kept in reserve for special or unusual circumstances.

HARC

无论是出于控制二氧化碳排放或是其他脱碳目标，还是处于环境污染或是其他环保因素，能源系统正在由传统化石能源主导逐渐向以电能为主导的系统过渡，其中，发电能源在由传统能源为主导，向以可再生能源发电为主导的系统过渡。可再生能源，这种以往作为传统化石能源发电的补充能源的资源，对气象十分敏感。

得克萨斯州大停电暴露出的最明显的问题其实是美国电力系统的更迭问题。因为早期建设的基础设施已经消耗完了他们的保质期，所以目前出现的状况，实际上是一个类似于超市过期-下架的闹钟，告诫政府或者相关部门需要更新设备。然而，并不是简单的以旧换新操作能够解决目前的问题。新的设备需要符合时代的背景，比如说智能调度，优化算法提高效率，增加储能，扩容，增加新能源使用，已经解决分布与运输存在的问题。这应该是从头到尾的一系列方案，有足够的资金和政策支持，引起足够的重视，是多方合作才能实现的。
The most obvious problem exposed by the Texas blackout is actually the alternation of the U.S. power system. Because the early construction of infrastructure has consumed their shelf life, so the current situation, in fact, is similar to the supermarket expired off shelf alarm clock, warning the government or relevant departments need to update the equipment. However, it is not a simple trade-in operation that can solve the current problem. New equipment needs to meet the background of the times, such as intelligent scheduling, optimization algorithm to improve efficiency, increase energy storage, capacity expansion, increase the use of new energy, which has solved the problems of distribution and transportation. This should be a series of programs from the beginning to the end, with sufficient funds and policy support, and enough attention, which can only be achieved through multi-party cooperation.

2021年2月，冬季风暴Uri席卷美国，造成了一些地区发电系统的瘫痪，其中较为严重的是拥有独立发电系统的得克萨斯州，目前，根据德州论坛报的报道，Berkshire Hathaway Energy公司拟投入83亿美元用于建造10个新的天然气发电厂。这场风暴无疑是一个重大灾难，但是当然，表面现象的背后是无数的因素导致的，其中可能存在很多无能为力，比如因为某些iso电力市场商业竞争的本质（根据FERC对美国电力市场的介绍，传统的发电市场是基于双边协议和电力池协议的，而类似得克萨斯州ERCOT这类ISO则是bid-based，以发电公司的低价竞标来选择发电厂商），因为要付出巨大的前期投入而无法提前满足供应需求的电力供应（提前对发电设施进行winterization以应对极端情况需要巨大的前期投入），但当这一问题开始危及生命，人们不得不从现在开始关注并解决它暴露出的无数的不良因素。这不仅仅是给一个地区的警示，更存在着种种值得每一个人关注的问题：1. 作为系统职责，传统电力系统是否具备足够的能力来应对极端情况的产生，即当前的发电系统是否可靠；2. 当传统的化石能源发电进入了更新和优化的阶段，新能源发电从补充措施逐渐向发电主力过度的时候，除了加速新技术的不断更迭上市，是否能够确保它们刚投入使用之初就已经具备足够的可靠性；如果任何一个地区并不具备一个可靠的电力系统，那么，当极端情况出现的时候，就会出现设备不足，设备失灵等等状况。所以，在加大对基础设施投入，加大储备能源投入的基础上，对使用传统技术或新兴技术的发电系统进行定期敏感性测试，是解决极端情况下的系统瘫痪问题的一个重要手段，此处的敏感性测试并不以实时的电力系统供求响应为研究对象，而是以整体的发电能力对极端情况的响应为研究对象。
事实上，早在2011年，得克萨斯州曾遭遇过类似的事件，在当时X政府部门提出的报告中，提到过关于进行敏感性测试的相关建议。该报告阐明了电力系统的弊端，在其中，它阐述出了一个关键的信息：调度并不是该地区电力系统所面对的关键问题，其关键问题还是设备问题。通常情况下，调度问题是电力系统崩溃常见的诱导因素，但在无法准确得知基础电力设施的发电能力时，优先解决设备问题以及设备评估问题才是重中之重。
此处总结以上对电力系统敏感性测试的必要性的阐述：只有在已经清楚的知道设备的正常能力以及在极端情况下的有限能力之后，任何对调度、分配的操作才有意义。倘若一个发电系统对各种极端情况极为敏感，它的不可靠会带来严重危害。
综上，无论是传统的急需更新的发电设备，传输通道，还是加入不久或即将加入的新能源设施，对他们进行敏感性分析是解决问题的第一步。本篇文章首先汇总了对发电结构进行从局部到整体的敏感性测试需要考虑的量化因素，然后进一步对他们做初步的数据分析，其次阐述为了避免极端情况所带来的损失，一个发电系统应该采取的措施。
part 2
以下是一些可靠媒体以及学术研究中出现的影响发电系统极端情况下发电能力的因素的汇总，其中包括了大量导致近期得克萨斯州在极端天气情况下的大停电的因素，还包括了在2011年后，得克萨斯州相关部门出台的报告中所包含的敏感性测试所涉及的需要评估因素。全面的敏感性测试应该对这些因素进行量化，并用合理的整体化的方式来评估发电系统对于极端情况的敏感性。

另外，这里需要说明的是，这些因素均为宏观因素。对他们的统计应该是在极端情况下的一段时间内，包含峰值和普遍值的统计。

极端情况下的需求状况
峰值

局部设备

首先忽略整体调配和互补，以每一个发电厂为单位量化一些指标是重要的，因为应对极端情况的任务最终会落在每一个发电厂上，对每一个发电厂的发电能力进行评估和优化，可以避免在应对极端情况时，整体发电能力有短板存在。

以发电厂为单位的极端情况下可用设备数量统计
以发电厂为单位的后经整修后达标设备数量
极端情况下主要能源供给量统计
极端情况下备用能源供给量统计
检测和维修消耗

储能设备
" In this context, energy storage systems appear as a promising solution to reduce the stochastic nature of renewable sources. "[Martinez-Rico, 2020]
电池能量效率和健康状态“Both the energy efficiency of the battery and its state of health (SOH) are considered in the battery model.” [Martinez-Rico, 2020]
（计算和建模公式）[Martinez-Rico, 2020]

可再生能源发电厂和运营商因为需要适应市场规则，必须具备良好的储能能力 “Deep integration of renewable energies into the electricity grid is restricted by the problems related to their intermittent and uncertain nature. These problems affect both system operators and renewable power plant owners since, due to the electricity market rules, plants need to report their production some hours in advance and are, hence, exposed to possible penalties associated with unfulfillment of energy production” [Martinez-Rico, 2020]

整体

检测和维修消耗

敏感性测试不能只立足于对可利用设备的判断，对设备新旧程度的评估，和对传输线路的老化程度的评估，因为对于某种气象或者其他极端情况的敏感性，取决于整体设备对气象或其他极端情况的适应性，像一对相对的箭头，一个箭头是气象的因素，而从另一个箭头则是一个整体调配能力，所以并不能只关注每一个发电厂的硬性指标，而要作为一种整体能力来观测。

整体发电能力估测
综合每个发电厂的量化指标，进行合理建模，输出对整体发电能力的量化指标
整体极端情况严重性估测

混合电力已经非常普及“The hybrid photovoltaic (PV)/wind turbine (WT)/battery (Bat)/diesel generator (DG)/biogas generator (BG), and grid/PV/WT are found as the optimum configurations for the off-grid and grid-connected systems, respectively” [Jahangir, etc, 2021]

传统能源占比
可再生能源份额

///首先应该针对地域而定制，考虑到他的资源和排放限制
新能源设备的选择应该符合地域特征，比如说为了适应城市环境的多向风流，选择了不需要偏航机构的VAWT
可再生能源的占比应该根据地域而设定，考虑到它的资源和排放限值。有例表明，新能源设备的选择趋向于符合地域特征，比如说为了适应城市的多向风流，在风力发电的过程中选择了不需要偏航机构的VAWT

Furthermore, as VAWT can operate with any wind directions, they do not need a dedicated yaw mechanism. This can largely increase the operational reliability and thus they are more suitable for urban environments where multidirectional wind flow exists (Sutherland et al., 2012). [Syawitri]

可再生能源对气象因素是十分敏感的，正因如此，它加剧了极端情况诸如极端天气对发电的影响
“A well-known challenge regarding the use of VRE sources for replacing conventional production means, however, relies on the variability and intermittency of VRE electricity generation, which would tend to significantly increase the dependence of the electricity generation and demand on weather and climate across a large range of temporal and spatial scales.” [Puspitarini, etc, 2020]

有多么敏感？

如何在可变性中平稳发电？[Puspitarini, etc, 2020]

什么因素造成了间歇性？这项研究提供了有关气候变量的时空变异性的文献综述，这些变量驱动风能，太阳能和水力发电的间歇性以及它们在电力系统中的联合管理。[Engeland, etc, 2017]

处理这种间歇性的主要策略包括能量存储，运输，多样性和信息。[Engeland, etc, 2017]
在此处，对于整体应该关注的是存储和运输等，局部主要关注的是存储

VRE混合方法多种多样，所以对于可再生能源，“Despite substantial research showing the benefit of combining various VREs from local to continental scales (e.g., [13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20]), the need for storage or backup generation is acknowledged for balancing electricity generation from high shares of VRE with the demand [21,22].”[Puspitarini, etc, 2020]应该关注存储或备份生成

风力发电的占比
proof：
其中，应该特别关注风力发电的占比，因为有以下两个原因：

1. 风力发电是主要的可再生能源发电形式
2. 风力发电的占比呈现逐步增长趋势，传统化石能源发电占比呈现逐渐减少趋势
   “The impact is summarised in table 3: as the amount of installed wind-power capacity increases, the total amount of energy required from other generators (coal, gas, nuclear) is reduced. Wind therefore contributes to decarbonising the power system but, consistent with [45, 46], the reduction is particularly pronounced for power plants expecting to operate as baseload rather than peaking (i.e., for long periods of the year rather than in short bursts). ” [Bloomfield, etc, 2016]
   这篇文章所使用的数据来源是在研究风电和气象领域常用的数据来源： "The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) was undertaken by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office with two primary objectives: to place observations from NASA’s Earth Observing System satellites into a climate context and to improve upon the hydrologic cycle represented in earlier generations of reanalyses. " [Rienecker, etc 2011]
   由此可见，
   电力系统逐渐从传统化石能源发电为主的模式向以可再生能源为主，以化石能源为辅的模式过渡，增加风力发电的占比，成为了以稳定负荷为目标的发电厂的主要行动，并且同时，对传统化石能源发电的需求也在减少。

风力发电winterization的程度
proof：

其他可再生能源发电占比
针对地域性特征，某些可再生能源并不适用于某些地区，所以混合的比例也各不相同
其中占比较重的是PV发电
太阳能光伏-pv发电

太阳热-SD发电
“most of regions with higher solar energy and suitable for applications of large-scale solar power plant around the world are considered desert regions with a low population density.” [Abdelhady, 2021]
例如考虑 Collector performance & Receiver performance [Abdelhady, 2021]

可再生能源的备用能源分析
备用能源可以调节可再生能源发电的可变性
例如，以CHP作为一种可再生能源备份[Puspitarini, etc, 2020]，

设备的protection
？

极端情况汇总
proof:
“The power grid is posited to be vulnerable to geomagnetic storms generated by solar activity, electromagnetic pulses (EMP, also referred to as HEMP) produced by high altitude nuclear detonations, cyberattack, and kinetic (physical) attack." [Weiss & Weiss, 2019]直接揭示了电网对于外界攻击性因素的脆弱性

量化极端情况可以用于对发电能力的评估，例如一些模型模拟了极端天气对风能发电的影响，通过量化极端天气的各种指标，可以初步估计风能发电的能力
[Staffell & Pfenninger, 2018]

（discussion）
如果使用HOMER软件进行模拟，“HOMER software is the most common energy systems simulator, which is utilized in many investigations. HOMER simulator, by considering the resources of study area and load demand, can suggest the several energy configurations”[Jahangir, etc, 2021]
& “ the optimization speed of HOMER is relatively high”[Jahangir, etc, 2021]

当然，以上仅简明列出了宏观上能源和设备方面需要考虑的因素，它作为占比适中但重要性极高的一个部分，被包含在很多其他方面的因素中。例如，如果是Texas的ISO运行制度在很大程度上影响了基础层的建设，那么它应该同样被视为需要解决的问题。保证基础设施的建设，才是应对极端情况的根本。企业与公用事业委员会以一种与群众共赢的方式合作，而不是单纯的共赢合作却脱离了群众利益。

措施
最终问题的解决应该分两层解决：generator site解决equipment的问题，balancing authorities和transmission operator解决调配和传输问题。
[2011Report,203]

解决问题的关键是找到受到某种极端情况影响最大的对应的电力系统微观因素，比如，受地磁风暴影响较大的微观因素是高压变电器，造成高压变压器的过载和过热，“The current flowing through HV transformers during a geomagnetic disturbance can be estimated using storm simulation and transmission grid data [7]. From these results, transformer vulnerability to internal heating can be assessed.” 受电磁脉冲影响较大的微观因素是microelectronics [Weiss & Weiss, 2019]，绝缘问题[“Power companies get exactly what they want”: How Texas repeatedly failed to protect its power grid against extreme weather", The Texas Tribune]

即所谓的关键故障点“critical failure points” that could cause equipment to stop working in cold weather.[“Power companies get exactly what they want”: How Texas repeatedly failed to protect its power grid against extreme weather]
抑制连锁故障的发生

使用再分析数据工具模拟真实情况

Discussion
这篇文章仅仅是将多数期刊和新闻提及到的，在得克萨斯州极端天气的影响下，电网暴露出的问题进行汇总。在各大研究所不乏使用的数据分析平台以及专业的研究人员，但是多年以来，极端天气下的电网应对能力依然脆弱。研究成本过高或者改善措施预算过高，都有可能造成措施的无法落实。简单的指标统计或许能起到低成本下的高效用。

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Weiss, M., Weiss, M. An assessment of threats to the American power grid. Energ Sustain Soc 9, 18 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-019-0199-y

Jahangir, M., Mousavi, S. & Asayesh Zarchi, R. Implementing single- and multi-year sensitivity analyses to propose several feasible solutions for meeting the electricity demand in large-scale tourism sectors applying renewable systems. Environ Dev Sustain (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01254-x

Martinez-Rico J, Zulueta E, Fernandez-Gamiz U, Ruiz de Argandoña I, Armendia M. Forecast Error Sensitivity Analysis for Bidding in Electricity Markets with a Hybrid Renewable Plant Using a Battery Energy Storage System. Sustainability. 2020; 12(9):3577. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093577

Puspitarini HD, François B, Baratieri M, Brown C, Zaramella M, Borga M. Complementarity between Combined Heat and Power Systems, Solar PV and Hydropower at a District Level: Sensitivity to Climate Characteristics along an Alpine Transect. Energies. 2020; 13(16):4156. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13164156

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