2.What a Living Whale Is Worth -- and Why the Economy Should Protect Nature _ Ralph Chami _ TED

What a Living Whale Is Worth

In 2017, I confided in a dear friend of mine
2017年，我向一位好朋友倾诉

that my lifelong wish was to see the blue whales.
，我毕生的愿望就是去看蓝鲸。

Before I knew it, I found myself with a bunch of researchers
在不知不觉中，我发现自己和一群研究人员一起

in the Sea of Cortez studying the blue whales.
在科尔特斯海研究蓝鲸。

We used to be in a boat 25 foot long.
我们曾经在一条 25 英尺长的船上。

And next to us ...
在我们旁边......

is this majestic creature
是这个雄伟的生物

feeding gracefully next to us.
在我们旁边优雅地喂食。

Now you have to understand, at that point in time,
现在你必须明白，在那个时候，

I knew nothing about blue whales, or whales in general.
我对蓝鲸或一般的鲸鱼一无所知。

I'm just a financial economist.
我只是一个金融经济学家。

But I learned something from them, which was really incredible.
但我从他们那里学到了一些东西，这真的很不可思议。

It was already known in the science that whales capture so much carbon
科学上已经知道，鲸鱼

on their body and indirectly.
在其身体上和间接地捕获了如此多的碳。

And that's, of course, very important for us
当然，这对我们来说非常重要，

because we are all facing the climate calamity
因为我们都面临着气候灾难

and we are all talking about how to grab carbon dioxide
，我们都在谈论如何

from the atmosphere.
从大气中吸收二氧化碳。

Well, it turns out that the whales
好吧，事实证明，

grab so much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere --
鲸鱼从大气中吸收了如此多的二氧化碳

by the way, they eat and they poop.
——顺便说一下，它们吃东西并拉屎。

Yeah. It's all about food.
是的。 一切都与食物有关。

So how does the whale system work?
那么鲸鱼系统是如何运作的呢？

Well, it starts in the oceans.
好吧，它始于海洋。

There's these microscopic organisms called phytoplankton.
这些微生物叫做浮游植物。

Those phytoplankton do something really incredible.
那些浮游植物做了一些非常不可思议的事情。

They grab so much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere,
它们从大气中吸收了如此多的二氧化碳，

and they return oxygen to all of us.
然后将氧气返回给我们所有人。

Now how much carbon dioxide do they grab from the atmosphere?
现在他们从大气中吸收了多少二氧化碳？ 大气中

About 37 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
约有 37 亿吨二氧化碳。

Truly the lungs of the planet are in the ocean.
地球之肺确实在海洋中。

Now, if you want to visualize what 37 gigatons mean,
现在，如果您想想象一下 37 亿吨意味着什么，

that's the equivalent of the carbon
这

that is grabbed by four Amazon forests per year.
相当于四片亚马逊森林每年吸收的碳。

That's how much is being sucked in by these photosynthetic organisms.
这就是这些光合生物吸收的量。

Now larger creatures called krill
现在，称为磷虾的较大生物

love to eat phytoplankton directly or indirectly.
喜欢直接或间接地吃浮游植物。

And the whales love to feed on the krill.
鲸鱼喜欢以磷虾为食。

They feed so much on the krill that they grow bigger and bigger,
它们以磷虾为食，变得越来越大，

and they store carbon in their body.
并将碳储存在体内。

How much carbon do they store in their body?
他们体内储存了多少碳？ 他们身上

Roughly about seven to nine tons of carbon on their body.
大约有七到九吨碳。

If you want to convert that to carbon dioxide,
如果你想将其转化为二氧化碳，

that's about 33 tons of carbon dioxide being kept out of the atmosphere
那么一头鲸鱼的身体会将大约 33 吨二氧化碳排除在大气之外

on the body of a single whale.
。

If you want to visualize that,
如果你想想象一下，

that’s the work of 1,500 trees
那就是 1,500 棵树

on the body of a single whale.
在一头鲸鱼身上的作用。

OK?
好的？

But those guys, because they eat a lot,
但是那些家伙，因为他们吃得很多，

what do you do next?
你接下来怎么办？

You poop a lot.
你大便很多。

And their poop turns out to be incredibly important
事实证明，它们的粪便非常重要，

because it fertilizes the phyto.
因为它可以为植物施肥。

So you have this wonderful cycle.
所以你有这个美妙的循环。

OK? The whale feeds on the krill, the krill feeds on the phyto,
好的？ 鲸鱼以磷虾为食，磷虾以植物为食，

and the phyto eats the poop of the whales to get more active.
而植物则吃鲸鱼的粪便以变得更加活跃。

And when the phyto gets more active,
当植物变得更加活跃时，

it grabs more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
它会从大气中吸收更多的二氧化碳。

So just imagine: the whales, they capture carbon on their body.
所以想象一下：鲸鱼，它们在身体上捕获碳。

Unfortunately, at some point they die,
不幸的是，在某些时候它们会死去，

and they're so heavy they sink to the bottom of the ocean.
而且它们太重以至于沉入海底。

And anything below a thousand meters is sequestered almost forever.
千米以下的任何东西几乎都被永远隔离了。

And through their poop they also fertilize phyto,
通过它们的粪便，它们还为植物施肥，

making phyto even more active,
使植物更加活跃，从大气中

grabbing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
吸收更多的二氧化碳。

So in a sense, the whales are incredible allies
因此，从某种意义上说，鲸鱼

in the fight against climate change.
是应对气候变化的不可思议的盟友。

Now that's good news, right? Yeah.
现在这是个好消息，对吧？ 是的。

Except that whales are dying.
除了鲸鱼快死了。

They're dying from ship strikes.
他们死于船只撞击。

They're dying from pollution, they're dying from entanglements.
他们死于污染，他们死于纠缠。

In fact, they're dying because our current economic system
事实上，它们正在死去，因为我们目前的经济体系

puts a zero value on a living whale.
对活鲸鱼的价值为零。

But chop a whale, sell it for its meat, it acquires a value.
但是砍一头鲸鱼，卖掉它的肉，它就获得了价值。

The value of a living whale is zero, zero dollars,
活鲸鱼的价值是零，零美元，

zero in any currency.
任何货币都是零。

I'm a financial economist.
我是一名金融经济学家。

And I'm listening to these scientists bemoaning what's happening to the whales.
我正在听这些科学家哀叹鲸鱼身上发生的事情。

And I wanted to help. I didn't know how to help.
我想帮忙。我不知道怎么帮忙。

And I thought, wait a minute.
我想，等一下。

Maybe I can bring your message to the audiences around the world.
也许我可以将您的信息传达给世界各地的观众。

Maybe I can translate all of that value, those services they do for us
也许我可以用我们都能理解的语言翻译所有这些价值，他们为我们提供的那些服务

in a language that we can all understand.
。

Unfortunately, it's a language of dollars and cents.
不幸的是，这是一种美元和美分的语言。

So I set out with my team to value the services of a whale
所以我和我的团队开始重视鲸鱼的服务，

but one service -- because the whales do a whole host of things.
但只有一项服务——因为鲸鱼做很多事情。

But I just wanted to value one thing,
但我只想看重一件事

which is what is the value
，就是

of their carbon sequestration service to us?
他们的碳汇服务对我们有什么价值？

Now how would you do something like that? After all, the whale is a living system.
现在你会怎么做这样的事情？毕竟，鲸鱼是一个生命系统。

The whale captures carbon on her body,
鲸鱼在她的身体上捕获碳

and she gives birth to baby whales
，她生下小鲸鱼

who also grow up to capture carbon on their body.
，这些鲸鱼长大后也会在他们的身体上捕获碳。

And they give birth to whales and so forth,
它们

and indirectly through the fertilization of phyto.
通过植物的受精间接地生出鲸鱼等等。

So how would you do something like this?
那么你会如何做这样的事情呢？

Well, to do that,
好吧，要做到这一点，

I had to resort to what I do best, which is valuation.
我不得不求助于我最擅长的事情，那就是估值。

I looked at it, I said, wait a minute.
我看着它，我说，等一下。

This looks like a share of stock that pays dividends.
这看起来像是支付股息的股票。

Except those dividends are live dividends. They give birth to more dividends.
除了这些股息是实时股息。他们催生更多的红利。

So if I were to track the whale over her lifetime
因此，如果我跟踪鲸鱼的一生

and keep track of all these dividends
并跟踪所有这些

into the future,
到未来的红利，

and then multiply that by the price of carbon,
然后将其乘以碳的价格，

and discount that all the way to the present,
并将其一直贴现到现在，

I can figure out what is the present value,
我就能弄清楚现在是什么 一头鲸鱼一生收入的

discounted present value,
价值，贴现现值

of the lifetime earnings of a single whale.
。

Would you like to know how much?
你想知道多少钱吗？

(Applause)
（掌声）

Would you like to know how much?
想知道多少？

Audience: Yes!
观众：对！

RC: At least three million dollars.
RC：至少三百万美元。

At least.
至少。

Because I'm leaving so much out of this.
因为我遗漏了很多东西。

But I just wanted to tell the good news that I heard on that boat.
但我只是想告诉大家我在那艘船上听到的好消息。

I didn't know what to do. I was trying to help them out.
我不知道该怎么办。我试图帮助他们。

But there's more good news. Would you like to hear it?
但还有更多好消息。你想听吗？

Audience: Yes!
观众：对！

RC: Their cousins on land, the elephants in the forests of Africa,
RC：它们在陆地上的表亲，非洲森林中的大象，

in the Congo Basin,
在刚果盆地，

they do the same thing.
它们做同样的事情。

Turns out the way they walk and they eat and they poop,
事实证明，他们走路、吃饭和便便的方式，

they increase carbon sequestration in the trees, in the forests
增加了树木中的碳固存，在森林中增加

between seven and 14 percent.
了 7% 到 14%。

Just imagine, just by frolicking around,
试想一下，只要四处嬉戏，

they're helping us to grab carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and fix it.
它们就能帮助我们从大气中吸收二氧化碳并加以修复。

So I thought, hey, maybe, maybe we can value their services to.
所以我想，嘿，也许，也许我们可以重视他们的服务。

Right? Same thing.
正确的？ 一样。

But again, use the same model of valuation.
但同样，使用相同的估值模型。

You follow the same methodology,
您遵循相同的方法，

and you discount all of that to the present.
并将所有这些都打折到现在。

And you ask yourself, what is the value
你问问自己，

of a single elephant's carbon sequestration service?
一头大象的碳封存服务的价值是多少？

Would you like to know how much?
你想知道多少钱吗？

Audience: Yes!
观众：对！

RC: Here we go.
RC：我们开始吧。

2.6 million dollars.
260万美元。

Would you like to hear some more good news?
你想听到更多好消息吗？

Audience: Yes!
观众：对！

RC: Aside from forests --
RC：除了森林——

because we are land people, we just think of forests --
因为我们是陆地人，我们只想到森林

go a little bit into the water.
——稍微进入水中。

Seagrass, saltmarsh mangroves, kelp forests, peatlands, wetlands --
海草、盐沼红树林、海藻林、泥炭地、湿地——

these are living systems that suck in so much carbon dioxide
这些生物系统吸收的二氧化碳量

beyond your imagination,
超乎你的想象，只要你不理会它们

and they keep it forever in their roots
并照料它们，它们就会将二氧化碳永远留在根部

as long as you leave them alone and you look after them.
。

So ...
所以......

If you think these numbers are big,
如果你认为这些数字很大，请

wait till you see what I'm about to tell you next.
等着看我接下来要告诉你的内容。

In seagrass alone,
仅在海草中，仅在海草中

seagrass alone, carbon sequestration.
，固碳。

How much do you think is the value of the global --
您认为全球的价值是多少——

If you look at globally the seagrass
如果您在全球范围内观察海草

and you value their carbon sequestration service,
并且您重视它们的碳封存服务，

how much you think it's worth?
您认为它的价值是多少？

You ready?
你准备好了吗？

2.3 trillion dollars.
2.3万亿美元。

That's the size of the German stock market.
这就是德国股市的规模。

Now.
现在。

What does this tell us?
这告诉我们什么？

This tells us that a living and thriving nature
这告诉我们，生机勃勃的

is not only valuable intrinsically,
大自然不仅具有内在价值，

it's also financially valuable to us.
而且对我们也具有经济价值。

Question is, what do you do with this?
问题是，你用这个做什么？

So the science tells us what a wondrous Earth we are on.
所以科学告诉我们，我们所处的地球是多么奇妙。

We can value it in dollars and cents.
我们可以用美元和美分来估价它。

Question is, what are you going to do with it?
问题是，你打算用它做什么？

Well, guess what? We can build a whole economy
好吧，你猜怎么着？我们可以

around a living and thriving nature,
围绕生机勃勃和繁荣的自然建立整个经济，

not an extractive view of nature,
不是对自然的提取观点，

but a regenerative view of nature.
而是对自然的再生观点。

And that economy --
还有经济——

(Applause)
（掌声）

Thank you.
谢谢。

That economy is going to deliver for us sustainable and shared prosperity
这种经济将为我们带来可持续和共享的繁荣

for all, big and small, all creatures on this planet.
，造福地球上所有大小的所有生物。

It does not have to be I win, you lose.
不一定是我赢，你输。

It is a win-win.
这是双赢的。

I'm going to show you how.
我会告诉你怎么做。

From there we can build --
从那里我们可以建立——

In order to build that economy, we need three things.
为了建立经济，我们需要三件事。

We need the science, the accounting, the scientific accounting.
我们需要科学、会计、科学会计。

What is it that you have? How much of it do you have?
你有什么？你有多少？

Then people like me, financial economists, come around and they say,
然后像我这样的金融经济学家过来，他们说，

"What is the value of what you have?"
“你所拥有的东西的价值是多少？”

The reason we value it is just to basically translate it
我们重视它的原因只是将其基本上翻译

into the language that policymakers can understand
成政策制定者可以理解的语言，

so they can make decisions.
以便他们做出决策。

That's all. It's a translation.
就这样。 是翻译。

But then the third pillar is very important,
但第三个支柱非常重要，

which is the legal framing.
即法律框架。

The legal framing is very important
法律框架非常重要，

because we need to protect the rights of nature,
因为我们需要保护大自然的权利，

a living and thriving nature.
一个生机勃勃的大自然。

Three things. Once you do these three things,
三件事。 一旦你做了这三件事，

you can create markets around nature.
你就可以围绕自然创造市场。

When I say markets around nature,
当我说围绕自然的市场时，

not an extractive view of nature, but a regenerative view of nature.
不是对自然的提取观点，而是对自然的再生观点。

And I'm going to show you how.
我会告诉你怎么做。

I'm going to show you how.
我会告诉你怎么做。

Gabon has 57,000 elephants.
加蓬有 57,000 头大象。

If you leave them alone, they can grow to 195,000 elephants.
如果放任不管，它们可以长到 195,000 头大象。

Gabon can sell the carbon offsets of its elephants.
加蓬可以出售其大象的碳补偿。

Imagine -- because those elephants are grabbing carbon in the trees --
想象一下——因为那些大象正在吸收树木中的碳——

they can sell the carbon offsets of their elephants.
它们可以出售大象的碳补偿。

To whom?
给谁？

To us because we're all enamored
对我们来说，因为我们都热衷

with going carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.
于实现碳零、碳负、碳中和。

And our money will come in to look after these elephants in perpetuity.
我们的钱将用于永久照顾这些大象。

OK? So how much revenue can Gabon get out of it?
好的？ 那么加蓬能从中获得多少收入呢？

One billion dollars a year from allowing these elephants to frolic freely,
允许这些大象自由嬉戏，

not be tied to anything,
不被任何东西束缚，

just by leaving them alone.
让它们独自一人，每年可赚 10 亿美元。

Those elephants, by the way, they walk, they poop,
顺便说一句，那些大象，他们走路，他们拉屎，

just being, having babies, doing whatever they do,
只是存在，生孩子，做他们做的任何事情，

they help carbon sequestration in the forests.
他们帮助森林固碳。

A forest without animals is dead.
没有动物的森林是死的。

It's not about flora. It's about flora and fauna.
这与植物群无关。这是关于植物群和动物群。

It's about nature itself.
这是关于自然本身。

That's what the message is.
这就是消息的内容。

Who would buy these carbon offsets?
谁会购买这些碳补偿？

All these companies and countries
所有这些

that made commitments to carbon zero, carbon negative, carbon neutral.
做出碳零、负碳、碳中和承诺的公司和国家。 如果你愿意

They would buy the carbon offsets, or carbon credits if you like.
，他们会购买碳抵消或碳信用额度。

The money would flow in from these ecosystem services --
资金将从这些生态系统服务中流入

be it the whales, be it the elephants, be it mangrove, seagrass, saltmarsh --
——无论是鲸鱼、大象、红树林、海草、盐沼

and the money goes in by contract,
——这些资金通过合同流入，

using blockchain technology to look after nature in perpetuity --
使用区块链技术永久保护自然——

very important --
非常 重要 -

and to look after the stewards of nature in perpetuity.
并永远照顾大自然的管家。

And the stewards of nature are the local and the indigenous population.
大自然的管家是当地和土著居民。

They're the ones who are doing the conservation, not you and me.
他们是进行保护的人，而不是你和我。

(Applause)
（掌声）

Once we do that --
一旦我们这样做了——

Notice what it is.
注意它是什么。

It's a win for nature.
这是大自然的胜利。

It's a win for the economy.
这是经济的胜利。

The government will make money
政府将赚钱，

because the government is going to get all that revenue.
因为政府将获得所有收入。

It will change its fiscal stance.
它将改变其财政立场。

It will diversify its economy. It will grow in a sustainable way.
它将使其经济多样化。它将以可持续的方式增长。

It's a win for the environment.
这是环境的胜利。

It's a win for all of these creatures that have suffered so much at our hands.
对于所有这些在我们手中遭受如此多痛苦的生物来说，这是一场胜利。

It’s a win for this beautiful Earth of ours.
这是我们这个美丽地球的胜利。

As Carl Sagan once said,
正如卡尔·萨根 (Carl Sagan) 曾经说过的那样，

“The only Earth we’ll ever know.
“我们所知道的唯一地球。

The only home we'll ever know."
我们唯一知道的家。”

It's a win for us.
这是我们的胜利。

We are taking this work
我们正在把

in Africa to Liberia, Cameroon, Kenya, South Africa.
非洲的这项工作带到利比里亚、喀麦隆、肯尼亚、南非。

We're taking this work to the Americas, Chile, Argentina.
我们正在把这项工作带到美洲、智利、阿根廷。

We're doing it in the US and in the UK.
我们正在 在美国和英国做这件事。

Imagine, it just started with just a wish of mine to see a blue whale.
想象一下，它只是从我想看到一只蓝鲸的愿望开始。

Little did I know it's going to end up with a vision
我几乎不知道它会以

of how we ought to live for tomorrow.
我们明天应该如何生活的愿景结束。

Thank you.
谢谢 .

(Applause)
(掌声)