思路:概率dp,我们设dp[i][j][k]:表示前i天多多君有j天使一个人过夜并且第i天宿舍有k个人的概率。
public class Solution {
static int n, m;
static double a, b;
public static void main(String[] args) {
Scanner in = new Scanner(System.in);
n = in.nextInt();
m = in.nextInt();
a = in.nextDouble();
b = in.nextDouble();
if (n == 1 || m == 1) {
double x = 1.0;
System.out.printf("%.8f\n", x);
} else {
double[][][] dp = new double[m + 1][m + 1][n + 1];
dp[1][1][1] = 1.0;
for (int d = 2; d <= m; d++) {
for (int i = 1; i <= d; i++) {
for (int j = 1; j <= n; j++) {
for (int k = 1; k <= n; k++) {
if (j == 1)
dp[d][i][j] += dp[d - 1][i - 1][k] * work1(j, k);
else
dp[d][i][j] += dp[d - 1][i][k] * work2(j, k);
}
}
}
}
double ans = 0;
for (int i = 1; i <= m; i++)
for (int j = 1; j <= n; j++)
ans += dp[m][i][j] * i;
System.out.printf("%.8f\n", ans);
}
}
private static double work1(int x, int y) {
if (x == y)
return 1.0 - a;
else {
if (y - x == 1)
return n == 2 ? b : (1.0 - a) * b;
else
return b * b;
}
}
private static double work2(int x, int y) {
if (x == 2 && y == 1) return a;
if (x == 2 && y == 2) return n == 2 ? (1.0 - b) : (1.0 - b) * (1.0 - a) + a * b;
if (x == 2 && y == 3) return 2.0 * (1.0 - b) * b;
if (x == 3 && y == 1) return 0;
if (x == 3 && y == 2) return a * (1.0 - b);
return (1.0 - b) * (1.0 - b);
}
}